NJ Devils predicted to win 2004/2005 Stanley Cup...

... at least they would have, according to a computer simulation done for the Toronto Star


The NHL's lost season officially begins today.

Seven games disappear on what was to have been the league's opening night: Good-bye Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, au revoir Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, git along Calgary Flames at Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

The cancellations continue with five more games tomorrow, then another six on Friday, including what was to have been the Maple Leafs' first game of 2004-05. Although games won't officially be cancelled by the NHL until the day they are supposed to be played, the league has given clubs permission to release arena dates 30 days in advance.

On and on it goes with no end in sight — fan frustration measured in a tally of lost hockey nights in Canada and the United States.

But if a season can be lost, can it also be found?

Sure.

The Stanley Cup champion for the 2004-05 NHL season is the New Jersey Devils. The Art Ross Trophy winner as leading scorer is Joe Sakic. And, once again, the Maple Leafs are impressive also-rans.

Those results and others come from a computer simulation of the 1,230-game official NHL season done for the Star by Whatifsports.com, a Cincinnati-based company that runs simulated games featuring current and historical players.

Simulations are an inexact science, to be sure. For everything expected this season — Jarome Iginla leads the league with 49 goals — there's something hard to swallow, like Chicago's Tyler Arnason scoring 41 goals, almost double the 21 he got last year.

But then real life is inexact, too. Who figured on the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames meeting in last year's Stanley Cup final?

Those Flames and Lightning, by the way, figure prominently in the 2004-05 results. Both return as division winners featuring stingy defences.

However, the NHL Cinderellas do not return to the big ball.

The Flames finish with the Western Conference's top record, 106 points, and beat the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round of the playoffs before getting crushed in four straight by the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2.

The Lightning win their division (105 points) but are upset in the first round of the playoffs by the Devils.

The Devils also end the Maple Leafs' season.

In fact, in many ways 2004-05 is a typical season for Toronto under the stewardship of Pat Quinn. The Leafs finish with 104 points, just behind Ottawa's 106 in the Northeast division, beat the surprising New York Islanders in the first round of the playoffs before falling in five games to New Jersey.

Mats Sundin is brilliant, finishing with 38 goals and 70 points, good for fourth in league scoring. Sadly, Alexander Mogilny's stats slip to just 23 points.

Whatifsports is running its own "No Lockout Challenge" simulation for the NHL season in which 30 users of the Web site have been put in charge of the 30 NHL teams and are playing out the season day-by-day as scheduled, making trades and calling up players as they see fit.

For the Star, Whatifsports used the latest current rosters — including minor-league prospects but excluding unsigned free agents — for each of the NHL teams, as modified by its appointed GMs. The entire schedule was simulated without roster changes or injuries.

The no-injury rule created some anomalies. For instance, Scott Stevens played all 82 games for the Devils and Jeremy Roenick all 82 for the Flyers even though both may retire because of concussion problems.

Fatigue was included as a factor in the Star simulation, which may have hurt the likes of the 35-year-old Mogilny — although clearly not Sakic.

Whatifsports, which was founded in 1999 by a self-described group of "fans/math geeks," is not the only outfit doing their own version of the NHL's lost season.

The digital cable channel G4techTV is using a computer video game to run the NHL schedule. Results of each "game" will be shown on the channel's daily "Sweat" program, with scores, stats, teams and player profiles on the channel's website (g4techtv.ca).

And the gambling web site Intertops.com is setting odds on NHL "games" on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Each team is assigned a ball from various North American lottery draws with the ball's first digit determining their goals scored in a game — 19 means one goal, 32 means three goals. A number less than 10 means your team is shut out.

Here's a hot tip: bet the Devils.

What?

No Breaking News Header?

what did Daniel Alfredsson predict?

can we do a simulated parade down Yonge street like every year?

j/k

What's this? No leafs fan has simulated an idea in their heads that the leafs will win this year?

Originally Posted by pfdude

What's this? No leafs fan has simulated an idea in their heads that the leafs will win this year?

Don't be silly. No Leaf fans would be so ignorant to do that

"Both return as division winners featuring stingy defences."

since when did the flames win their division? they'd have to win it last year to RETURN as division winners.

the flames beat the hawks in teh first round to get crushed by the avs in 4 straight, that would mean the avs would have to finish pretty lowly in the standings in order to play the flames in the second round since it predicts the flames as presidents trophy winners. the only way is the avs finish 4th and 1-4 win their opening series. if it predicts sakic to win the art ross, i would think that the avs would win their division finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conference therefore making it impossible to play the flames who supposedly finished 1st in the conference.

also as my personal opinion, if there was a season, i dun think sakic would win the art ross nor iginla win the rocket richard. i'd predict palffy to win the art ross, that guy is sooo due if he can just have an injury free season, he was running away with the scoring title before he got hurt last year.

Originally Posted by pfdude

What's this? No leafs fan has simulated an idea in their heads that the leafs will win this year?

nope but the leafs do knock off Ottawa in the playoffs again

Originally Posted by ForthEarlingas

nope but the leafs do knock off Ottawa in the playoffs again

It's true! They're rebroadcasting last season's game 7 on Saturday night on am640