Markets you expect to do well?

Well, since specific stocks are out. How about markets.

Personally, I think oil is being over priced and is getting to a similar state that hi-tech was at in 2000. To me the supply far exceeds the demand, similar to the case with the internet infrastructure during the tech bust. In my view, its about to crash huge, and calls like goldman sacks recent $105 valuation just wreeks of pumping the market.

In view of this, I think automotive will take a good jump after oil drops. Since oil is a complimentary good to automobiles, the demand for cars should go up after oil drops. I know who I am thinking of playing in this sector, but overall I think it will go up... only if and after oil busts though.

Let me know your perspectives.

For those also interest. I hold an interest in canadian diamonds. However, this is a much shorter term market as I expect the price/monopoly for diamonds will soon drop. Debeers is losing market share which will shift the sector into a competitive market. Should reduce prices but this won't happen soon. More of a longer term effect.

I'll talk about markets, not market sectors...

Canada will do fine in 2005. Not quite as hot as last year, but ok. As long as there's a need for our natural resources, we'll do fine.

I also think that Asia will heat up. So will the developing markets.

India & China are countries to watch in 2005.

Personally, I don't buy into market sectors. But I do buy into certain markets.

Originally Posted by dummjock

In view of this, I think automotive will take a good jump after oil drops. Since oil is a complimentary good to automobiles, the demand for cars should go up after oil drops. I know who I am thinking of playing in this sector, but overall I think it will go up... only if and after oil busts though.

I would look at secondary auto stocks such as Bosch, Magna, TRW as well when oil prices finally come to their senses.

This sector has gone thru very rapid expansion as more and more auto components are outsourced to them. After expansion comes consolidation & right-sizing. May be time to pick up some bargains if you plan to hold it for the long term.

Originally Posted by Spazmogen

India & China are countries to watch in 2005.

I'm a bit scared by the yet-to-mature securities law and the lack of knowledge of investors in China. This results in volatile markets.

A bit more predictable investment in China is real estate. New roads and increased affordability of cars means land in rural areas will be converted from farms into either industrial or residential buildings. Land usage law is a bit murky (there is no land ownership allowed). But expect major changes in the next 30 years as the state slowly converts from communism to capitalism (collective ownership to individual ownership). This will definitely lead to an increase in price of land. This type of market is tough to tap into. But if you can get in on it, it's a good investment.

Originally Posted by Spazmogen

I'll talk about markets, not market sectors...

Canada will do fine in 2005. Not quite as hot as last year, but ok. As long as there's a need for our natural resources, we'll do fine.

I also think that Asia will heat up. So will the developing markets.

India & China are countries to watch in 2005.

Personally, I don't buy into market sectors. But I do buy into certain markets.

Good Markets does not necessarily equal good investments.

This is an excerpt of the Wall Street Week interview with Jeremy Seigel:

COLVIN: But you pointed out that if you invested in China, the fastest growing economy on earth, you wouldn’t have done so well.

SIEGEL: That was a shocker. You know, in 1992 to the present, 12 years, the fastest growing country by GDP, by virtually any measure, is China -- the worst dollar returns. And you know why? Again, everyone was so excited, including the Chinese, that they just bid the price of these stocks so high. They couldn’t last, gave people negative returns. Actually $1,000 invested then turned into $300 by the end of 2003

God knows but the rest of us don't, and if anyone does know they ain't gonna say.