Market Up Tomorrow on Positive BF reports?

[brunes]

How much you want to bet?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/30/AR2008113001621.html?hpid=topnews

Consumers swarmed the nation's stores over the weekend in search of deeply discounted electronics and apparel, sending sales rising and giving retailers a little Christmas cheer, according to early reports released yesterday.

Market research firm ShopperTrak reported that sales on Black Friday grew 3 percent to about $10.6 billion. Last year, sales on that day grew 8.3 percent.

[Thalo]

I hope so. Unfortunately what most reports are saying though is that although sales were strong, profit margins were low because of the deep discounts.

U.S. index futures and the Nikkei and Singapore are down right now and the Yen/Eur cross is back down to 120 and change, so the forecast for tomorrow is cloudy.

[Dibble]

Even if the sales increase was due to highly discounted prices, it's still positive news because it shows the everyday consumer is still willing to spend.

But the problem is this -- if prices are so low now and everyone who wanted to buy things were able to do so, what would be their incentive be to spend when prices start rising back up again? another question might be; which goods were sold more/less relative to others?

To find that answer, we might want to look at retailers purchasing data. If they expect increased sales, we should see increased buying to restock their inventories. If the purchase data is negative, it basically confirms that a quick turnaround isn't in the books and the recession is very much real.

[chris103610]

Even if the sales increase was due to highly discounted prices, it's still positive news because it shows the everyday consumer is still willing to spend.



no, it actually only shows that the everyday consumer is only willing to spend money when there are good deals. this is one day of the year. this doesn't make up for the other 364 days...

[netriones]

How much you want to bet?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/30/AR2008113001621.html?hpid=topnews

Consumers swarmed the nation's stores over the weekend in search of deeply discounted electronics and apparel, sending sales rising and giving retailers a little Christmas cheer, according to early reports released yesterday.

Market research firm ShopperTrak reported that sales on Black Friday grew 3 percent to about $10.6 billion. Last year, sales on that day grew 8.3 percent.

:!: Decline of 63.86% from last year.

[NUTS]

I hope so. Unfortunately what most reports are saying though is that although sales were strong, profit margins were low because of the deep discounts.

U.S. index futures and the Nikkei and Singapore are down right now and the Yen/Eur cross is back down to 120 and change, so the forecast for tomorrow is cloudy.

at 7am - pre open world markets down, Asia & Europe down, which would lead you to believe profit taking from last week.

TSX & DOW down today a 100 or so points, with markets flip flopping between now and end of the year, best guess is also that consumer spending will be down, driving the US markets down further.

All of that without a crystal ball - pure speculative guessing of which I am generally correct 50% of the time :o:D

[hagbard]

Lets hope they're dismal. Americans need to learn to save and not spend.

[Jacklad]

:!: Decline of 63.86% from last year.

Let's see if I have this straight - "Well, yes, there was growth, but there was less growth than last year, ergo there was a decline." :confused:

Nice statistical trick there. Might I suggest this book (http://www.amazon.ca/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top/192-2006122-1784740)?

:D

[gizmo8]

no, it actually only shows that the everyday consumer is only willing to spend money when there are good deals. this is one day of the year. this doesn't make up for the other 364 days...


true,but still what is going to happen the next 24 important shopping days where most retailers make %40 of the yearly sales.A estimate AFTER new year over 1000 malls will definitely close and another 2000 by mid 2009 if the economy doesnt improve drastically.This recession is hitting really deep,no one day maniac shopping spree will cover up this is going to a bad retail year for all stores.

[thefleet]

I'm willing to bet most of those Americans maxed out their credit cards, but dont worry the government will bail them out for a happy Christmas :lol:

[gizmo8]

I'm willing to bet most of those Americans maxed out their credit cards, but dont worry the government will bail them out for a happy Christmas :lol:

this is what got them in trouble,after the shopping hangover the bills are pouring in and they still are in a recession.The first quarter of 2009 is going to really show how healthy or sick the retail market is,its not going to be pretty.

[brunes]

:!: Decline of 63.86% from last year.

Let's see if I have this straight - "Well, yes, there was growth, but there was less growth than last year, ergo there was a decline." :confused:

Nice statistical trick there. Might I suggest this book (http://www.amazon.ca/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top/192-2006122-1784740)?

:D

You guys are mis-reading that. What they are saying is, last year sales on BF were 3% higher THAN BF OF THE YEAR BEFORE. And sales THIS year are 3% higher than BF LAST year. It only has to do with BF. So it actually increased.

Regardless looks like the market tanked anyway :/

[Jacklad]

You guys are mis-reading that. What they are saying is, last year sales on BF were 3% higher THAN BF OF THE YEAR BEFORE. And sales THIS year are 3% higher than BF LAST year. It only has to do with BF. So it actually increased.

That was my point.:lol: I was "taking the piss" out him because he took a statistical point about a relative increase and turned it into a decline by looking at rate of increase instead. The link to "How to Lie With Statistics" was supposed to be a tip-off.

We need a "sarcasticon" (or perhaps a "WTF" icon). "Confused" doesn't seem to cut it.

Regardless looks like the market tanked anyway :/

There's no predicting right now. Panic is like that.

[Thalo]

:!: Decline of 63.86% from last year.

The fact that there's any growth in sales from last year is pretty phenomenal by itself. Unless we're still lying to ourselves that we're not in a recession.

Speaking of which, did everyone simply miss the best news story of the past month or did they completely misinterpret it? The NBER declared that the U.S. has officially been in a recession since December 2007. That means they're already a whole year in! This is great news. If we assume it's one of the worse recessions it could only last another year. If it's an average recession it should be over soon.

Did anyone read what Bart Simpson was writing on the chalkboard in the intro to last night's Simpsons episode?

Prosperity is just around the corner.

[Frankie3s]

Anyone trying to short this kind of market will eventually learn a hard lesson. Wages in both countries are still too high, unions are still too powerful, homes are still overpriced and finally companies are now considering China too expensive. Imagine, producing goods in China are now considered too expensive and so production is moving to countries like Vietnam.

Who would've thought?

[Asun]

That means they're already a whole year in! This is great news. If we assume it's one of the worse recessions it could only last another year. If it's an average recession it should be over soon.

Out of recession, into depression? :?:

[aww1970]

Anyone trying to short this kind of market will eventually learn a hard lesson. Wages in both countries are still too high, unions are still too powerful, homes are still overpriced and finally companies are now considering China too expensive. Imagine, producing goods in China are now considered too expensive and so production is moving to countries like Vietnam.

Who would've thought?

Well the market has dropped by close to 50% since the high- so I would say that the shorts have had their way as of late. And they made their money way quicker than the bulls of the last run....

Anyone who is long in this market has learned a hard leson.
All the reasons you give in your example are more reasons to be short on most North American equaties......:confused:

[Thalo]

Well the market has dropped by close to 50% since the high- so I would say that the shorts have had their way as of late. And they made their money way quicker than the bulls of the last run....

Anyone who is long in this market has learned a hard leson.
All the reasons you give in your example are more reasons to be short on most North American equaties......:confused:

Still, do you short the market now, after it has already shed so much of its value?

Did you long oil or gold earlier this year when it was near its highs? Did you buy RIM or POT? Did you short the $USD? Momentum only goes so far.

[aww1970]

Still, do you short the market now, after it has already shed so much of its value?

Did you long oil or gold earlier this year when it was near its highs? Did you buy RIM or POT? Did you short the $USD? Momentum only goes so far.

There are still more sellers than buyers, you cannot deny that fact. I have been short on the entire TSX-depending on the day since early October. Long on some sectors, usually for no more than 3 days however. This a traders market, and will be for some time. If you have the stomach to buy and hold in this market you'd better know your stuff as the fallout is still coming down the pipe. I don't claim to have the wisdom to buck the trend at this point.

If you buy on a day like yesterday, you should be prepared to sell it the next day. If you are not comfortable with this then just keep your cash in a savings account fo a while yet.

[Thalo]

There are still more sellers than buyers, you cannot deny that fact. I have been short on the entire TSX-depending on the day since early October. Long on some sectors, usually for no more than 3 days however. This a traders market, and will be for some time. If you have the stomach to buy and hold in this market you'd better know your stuff as the fallout is still coming down the pipe. I don't claim to have the wisdom to buck the trend at this point.

If you buy on a day like yesterday, you should be prepared to sell it the next day. If you are not comfortable with this then just keep your cash in a savings account fo a while yet.

Read rfdrfd's post on POT, that he posted when it was at its high. Reads a lot like your post above.

I agree with you though that it's a trader's market. I've made tons of money on short term trades, always long and getting out after a couple of days to a week max. It won't hurt you in the long term though to get in now to buy and hold.