Lottery - quickpick or pick numbers myself?

[Muncher]

Has anyone seen any stats on whether the probability of winning the lottery is higher when using quickpick or when someone picks the numbers themselves?

Just wondering if the random number generators are really random, and what the odds are .... with 649 and Super 7 especially.

[trixstar]

pick your own numbers + play quickpick..

[S_G]

It makes no difference. The probability of winning does not change whether you choose your own numbers or have a computer do it for you. Even if the number generation was not random, it could not possibly affect the chance of winning, because the actual result number selection is random (or is it? cue dramatic music).

[bokep]

quickpick that ****

only old people pick their numbers

[UrbanPoet]

its the exact same...

[deep]

For best results, hold the lighter directly below the money you were going to pay with. You still won't win ****, but at least you'll be warm for 7 seconds.

[rfdrfd]

Look at websites the track the numbers. You will SEE that certain numbers have been picked more frequently than others. Why does that happen? Think about it.

I am quite sure that the balls they use are NOT weighed to like the 4th significant digits. If they are weighed at all. So the heavier ones will stay down more often than lighter ones.

Now, also consider, they will change ball sets every few weeks (to keep it random).

So, track the winning numbers for a few weeks. You may see some numbers being picked more often. I've done that on Super 7 and for the 3 times I've played, I've won a free play.

Of course, only a few get picked more often, so the rest you still have to GUESS.

So my opinion: Study, research and PICK YOUR OWN numbers.

[Bazooka Joe]

From http://www.worsleyschool.net/science/files/lotto/winning649.html

You've got a 1 in 13,983,816 chance of winning the jackpot.

You've got a ~2% chance of winning anything at all.

Statistically, there is no difference in picking your own numbers or quick picks. People who have a "system" is where the gambling/lottery companies make their billions of dollars every year.

[Kommander_KornFlakes]

For best results, hold the lighter directly below the money you were going to pay with. You still won't win ****, but at least you'll be warm for 7 seconds.

Hahaha, that's definitely a more productive way to waste your money considering that the 6/49 central computer is RIGGED not to pick the winning numbers from the gazillion people who played... it picks the winning numbers whenever officials feel it's "time" some schmuck should win it so as not to arise suspicions, ever wonder why big jackpots stay a maximum of 3 Saturdays without winning and the winnings never go above $50 million? Ever wonder why 75% of 6/49 winners are from Quebec or Alberta? Officials want to keep them happy and won't let Ontario residents win it all.

[kaos25000]

I don't remember where I read it but in the beginning, there was only quick pick. The lottery organizers then realized that when people picked their own numbers, they did not do it randomly (i.e.: nobody will pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 for example because these numbers "should" never come out; however, they have the same probability to come out as any other sets). So they let people choose their numbers; this way, fewer grand prizes are won, because all the sets are not covered evenly. Also, if you choose your own numbers (and believe like most people that some sets "should" not be drawn like 1,2,3,4,5,6), you have higher chances that someone else chose this same set (because fewer sets to choose from = more crossovers) and you'll have to split the grand prize if you win it.

[kaos25000]

Hahaha, that's definitely a more productive way to waste your money considering that the 6/49 central computer is RIGGED not to pick the winning numbers from the gazillion people who played... it picks the winning numbers whenever officials feel it's "time" some schmuck should win it so as not to arise suspicions, ever wonder why big jackpots stay a maximum of 3 Saturdays without winning and the winnings never go above $50 million? Ever wonder why 75% of 6/49 winners are from Quebec or Alberta? Officials want to keep them happy and won't let Ontario residents win it all.

In fact, every time I checked, it seemed like the grand prize winner was from Ontario... :)

[JAC]

Hey, Google does probablilities.

49 choose 6 = 13 983 816

49 choose 7 = 85 900 584

kaos25000, your logic about sets is flawed. The odds are all the same, regardless of what numbers are chosen or how they are chosen.

[kaos25000]

Hey, Google does probablilities.

49 choose 6 = 13 983 816

49 choose 7 = 85 900 584

kaos25000, your logic about sets is flawed. The odds are all the same, regardless of what numbers are chosen or how they are chosen.

Well, if you have 13 983 816 players and they all play randomly, the grand prize will be won. However, if these 13 983 816 players do not play randomly (human nature with numbers), there is a chance that the grand prize will not be won.

From your point of view as a player, you still have 1 chance in 13 983 816 to win (quick pick or not) but from the point of view of the lottery, they will have more chances to keep the prize.

Where am I wrong ?

EDIT: Or JAC, are you working for Lotto-Ontario ? ;)

[deep]

The odds are all the same, regardless of what numbers are chosen or how they are chosen.

Actually, I bet it's easier than you think to play with numbers and human nature. I bet large Chinese populations would show a lower number of 4s being selected, and Euro/NA populations may stay away from 13. There may be other numbers that are known to be less selected by lottery players, like 1 and 49, as well. You could conceivably weight draws to select those "unchosen" numbers more often.

Although, as long as YOU play randomly (truly so) then it shouldn't matter to YOU.

[kaos25000]

Although, as long as YOU play randomly (truly so) then it shouldn't matter to YOU.

Sure, quick pick or randomly human picked (if such thing exists) numbers is the same thing. But if you can't pick randomly then chances are you'll more likely end up splitting that big win with another player if you win it (maybe a very small increase in chances, but an increase nonetheless; cf. prior post).

[JAC]

Well, if you have 13 983 816 players and they all play randomly, the grand prize will be won. However, if these 13 983 816 players do not play randomly (human nature with numbers), there is a chance that the grand prize will not be won.

From your point of view as a player, you still have 1 chance in 13 983 816 to win (quick pick or not) but from the point of view of the lottery, they will have more chances to keep the prize.

Where am I wrong ?

EDIT: Or JAC, are you working for Lotto-Ontario ? ;)

Actually, if 13,983,816 people play sequentially (all possible combinations played), then there will be a winner. It's the overlap caused by people choosing randomly that results in a no-winner draw. I get your point, now.:)

[JAC]

Actually, I bet it's easier than you think to play with numbers and human nature. I bet large Chinese populations would show a lower number of 4s being selected, and Euro/NA populations may stay away from 13. There may be other numbers that are known to be less selected by lottery players, like 1 and 49, as well. You could conceivably weight draws to select those "unchosen" numbers more often.

Although, as long as YOU play randomly (truly so) then it shouldn't matter to YOU.

Can you imagine the shitstorm if it were proven that they were rigging the draws?

Seems, though, that the best way to get a single-win jackpot would be for a player to choose the less popular numbers.

[Muncher]

So if we all quikpicked, then someone must win .... assuming that the number of players equals/exceeds the number of permutations that can be generated. I wonder how to find the number of players that picked their own?

[deep]

So if we all quikpicked, then someone must win .... assuming that the number of players equals/exceeds the number of permutations that can be generated.
Incorrect. There is no rule for quickpicks that says they have to use all the permutations. In fact, every quickpick could, at least in theory, be the same set of numbers...

[Lone_Prodigy]

Placebo effect. :)

[teknoluv]

The thing about lottery is that you PLAY. The numbers don't really matter. Just pay $2, and get the ticket to your dream. Anything else is a waste of time. And don't even think about buying $20 or more at a time, because you are wasting your time checking the tickets even with the machine.

[actuary]

After using statistics to analyze the results of all 6/49 draws since its inception I can conclude the following: In plain English, the distribution of balls picked is within what one would expect in a random draw. This was done using simple second year university statistics, as well as some proprietary software at my workplace to double check the results.

Therefore, quick pick and your own picks have an equal chance of winning.

Even if, say ball 49, had a slight tendency to be picked more often - it would be impossible to use this information to gain enough of an advantage to overcome the 53% house edge in this game.

In short - the lottery is fun and exciting, but if you are playing to win, play something else. Any bet in a casino provides a better return than the 6/49. Here's a quick run down of the 6/49 compared to other bets:

Game - Expected Return:

6/49 - 47%
Super 7 - 45%
Instant Lotteries in Ontario - most between 60-70%
Slot Machine in an Ontario casino - at least 85% (as mandated by the OLG)
Double Zero Roulette - 94.7%
Single Zero Roulette - 97.3%
Blackjack played perfectly in Ontario - 99.6%

[Firebot]

The people that pick their numbers are the same people who bet on black in roulette because red just hit 3 times in a row. Each lottery draw has no effect on the next.

It's really a tax on poor stupid people. Sure if you win, you win, and people think it's just a few dollars for a possible dream. Most people will never win however, and you are worse off then before.

"I won 500$ at the lottery yesterday OMG"

"How much money have you spent over the months and years before you hit the 500$?"

"..."

Some people won't admit it's gambling. It is, but the EV is so bad that people get fooled into thinking it's different.

[bokep]

The people that pick their numbers are the same people who bet on black in roulette because red just hit 3 times in a row. Each lottery draw has no effect on the next.

It's really a tax on poor stupid people. Sure if you win, you win, and people think it's just a few dollars for a possible dream. Most people will never win however, and you are worse off then before.

"I won 500$ at the lottery yesterday OMG"

"How much money have you spent over the months and years before you hit the 500$?"

"..."

Some people won't admit it's gambling. It is, but the EV is so bad that people get fooled into thinking it's different.

-1 for ignorance.

Tax on poor stupid people? What about those of us who has enough money and are willing to drop a toonie when randomly passing by a kiosk? I can understand if $2 is too much for you, but that is no grounds to judge other people playing the lottery. It's harmless fun for most people.

[Firebot]

-1 for ignorance.

Tax on poor stupid people? What about those of us who has enough money and are willing to drop a toonie when randomly passing by a kiosk? I can understand if $2 is too much for you, but that is no grounds to judge other people playing the lottery. It's harmless fun for most people.

So take out poor from the equation and just keep stupid people then. You can do whatever you want with your money, even use it as toilet paper, but like was said earlier, you will probably get more more benefit from the warmth of burning money then by buying a lottery ticket.

[najibs]

So much debate over this. Whether you do a quick pick, or pick the numbers yourself, the chances of winning are still very slim. Why then do we play the lottery, if we all know the chances of winning are slim? Because we all dream and hope, and spending a few bucks on a lottery ticket isn't going to take food off the table.

Plus, you know that every time you buy a ticket, the first thing you do is start dreaming of all the stuff you'd buy with the money, the huge house you'd live in, and the Ferrari you'd buy...Lottery appeals to our sense of greed, and think that by winning the lottery all of our problems in life disappear. This is why people play the lottery.

K, I'm off to buy my ticket for tomorrows draw, now... :D

[teknoluv]

The options are simple: a few dollars more in your pocket per week (not enough even for a decent cup of coffee every day), or the chance of winning a MILLION DOLLAR (NOT $500) lottery. After a bit of calculation, I find it hard not to buy. I thought every RFDers knew that, no? Weird. It's the best deal EVER!

By the way, lottery is not really gambling, UNLESS you *think* you will win BECAUSE you buy more. The most dangerous "games" are those with the best odds, like in Sic Bo. That's when you fall for problem gambling.

[actuary]

The options are simple: a few dollars more in your pocket per week (not enough even for a decent cup of coffee every day), or the chance of winning a MILLION DOLLAR (NOT $500) lottery. After a bit of calculation, I find it hard not to buy. I thought every RFDers knew that, no? Weird. It's the best deal EVER!

By the way, lottery is not really gambling, UNLESS you *think* you will win BECAUSE you buy more. The most dangerous "games" are those with the best odds, like in Sic Bo. That's when you fall for problem gambling.

Actually, Sic Bo has some of the worse odds in the casino! The best bet is Big/Small, but that still carries a high house edge of 2.78% (you lose if triples are thrown). Some of the bets in that game has a house edge of over 18%!

[bokep]

So take out poor from the equation and just keep stupid people then. You can do whatever you want with your money, even use it as toilet paper, but like was said earlier, you will probably get more more benefit from the warmth of burning money then by buying a lottery ticket.

So add in stupidity to ignorance. If lottery to you is logically on the same level as burning money for warmth, then I am terribly sorry.

[teknoluv]

Actually, Sic Bo has some of the worse odds in the casino! The best bet is Big/Small ...
Mind reading me the sign that hangs above the table where you play "Big/Small"?

[actuary]

Mind reading me the sign that hangs above the table where you play "Big/Small"?

I'm sorry, I don't understand your question. What sign are you referring to and where is it located?

Edit: Are you referring to the board that posts the results of past rolls?

[kaos25000]

Incorrect. There is no rule for quickpicks that says they have to use all the permutations. In fact, every quickpick could, at least in theory, be the same set of numbers...

Not according to large numbers theory. If you pick n numbers randomly (n being large), you'll end up with an evenly distributed function. Is 13 millions considered large enough (for 13 millions combinations); maybe not.

[deep]

Not according to large numbers theory. If you pick n numbers randomly (n being large), you'll end up with an evenly distributed function. Is 13 millions considered large enough (for 13 millions combinations); maybe not.
Incorrect. The odds of selecting 13,000,000 numbers at random between 1 and 13,000,000 and having all the numbers covered are astronomically small. Even distribution does not equal total coverage.

I cannot remember the formula to calculate the number of random selections required to have an X% chance of covering all 13,000,000 possibilities, but to even approach 100% would require a much larger number of selections.

[Sprite_TM]

it doesnt matter

[whoa-albert]

quickpick that ****

only old people pick their numbers

Old people win a lot though. =/