Another bloody red day on the TSX

[retroman80s]

Bummer, I guess the market can't go up for ever. There might be some good deals out there..

[FAQ]

no kidding, another 300 drop ! tomorrow will be critical ...

[Advantage22]

no kidding, another 300 drop ! tomorrow will be critical ...

Why?

Remember, "...when The Street is scared, I get greedy..."

[winner2000]

no kidding, another 300 drop ! tomorrow will be critical ...

Everyday is a "critical day"...what a stupid comment.

[pitz]

Yeah I don't get it -- Encana demolished analysts' earnings estimates, oil is hovering in the $75/barrel range, interest rates are actually down from a few weeks ago, and retail sales have been hitting new records, and the Canadian market sells off.

[thelefteyeguy]

didnt do too bad today on my personal trades

but...can't say that about my mutual funds tho.



I saw today as a good day to buy some cheapies...and there were lots ;)

(i sold off lots last week and waited for a week like this...)

[konfusion666]

yup did a bit of bargain hunting too. a particular dividend paying F.I. stock (won't say any further; rules) took a nice hit, so i was able to get into that one.

HOWEVER... i'm going to say that there is still room for further correction before the summer is out. anyone agree?

[FAQ]

Everyday is a "critical day"...what a stupid comment.
exactly, what a stupid comment like this !

[controlyar]

Yeah I don't get it -- Encana demolished analysts' earnings estimates, oil is hovering in the $75/barrel range, interest rates are actually down from a few weeks ago, and retail sales have been hitting new records, and the Canadian market sells off.

I am surprised you are not aware of the actual factors that are causing this selloff. :confused:

Without getting into it, the primary causes are due to circumstances occurring outside of Canada.
Keep on reading....

[thelefteyeguy]

i had a penny stock today with an NR...worst day for a release.

Anyways...shot up a bit...and sold around the peak before it dropped mad.

made some but not as much on an average day on the TSX....(ie usually 50%+)

[pitz]

I am surprised you are not aware of the actual factors that are causing this selloff. :confused:

Without getting into it, the primary causes are due to circumstances occurring outside of Canada.
Keep on reading....

Canada did well compared to a lot of other markets ;). And in the whole scheme of things, the TSX is just a porcupine that is easily reducable to roadkill by the global freight train.

[controlyar]

Canada did well compared to a lot of other markets ;). And in the whole scheme of things, the TSX is just a porcupine that is easily reducable to roadkill by the global freight train.

Ding ding ding.
I like that metaphor. :lol:

[Jonavin]

What's that you say? Huge discount on stocks?

[konfusion666]

And in the whole scheme of things, the TSX is just a porcupine that is easily reducable to roadkill by the global freight train.

that metaphor doesn't make me very confident about our markets...

[controlyar]

that metaphor doesn't make me very confident about our markets...

Then pull a hagbard. :lol:

[pitz]

that metaphor doesn't make me very confident about our markets...

I wouldn't be too confident either...metaphor or not.

Look at that Lord that was found guilty of committing crimes on Canadian soil. Did the Canadian police or Canadian securities regulators file criminal charges? Nope. The Americans had to take him down.

Then there's the fiasco concerning Nortel. Bre-X, Livent, etc, etc. Lots of warnings on all of them, but the Canadian regulators did almost nothing to prosecute the culprits.

Basically, if a Canadian company doesn't present their numbers in US GAAP format, and if they don't submit themselves to the regulatory oversight of the SEC, then I refuse to buy. Canada's system of securities regulation is too fragmented and prone to political interferance to trust.

[krazy]

Why?

Remember, "...when The Street is scared, I get greedy..."

+1...

Tomorrow the TSX is sure to shoot up

[OMV]

Everyday is a "critical day"...what a stupid comment.

I don't think it's that stupid, actually. The market is highly dependent on mass psychology, and a third big drop in a row could scare people into selling. A few bad days in succession definitely get people talking. Once everyone feels that the market is heading down, it heads down...

Edit:

have you ever heard the expression "don't try to catch a falling knife"?

Short short short!

See what I'm saying?

[monty613]

+1...

Tomorrow the TSX is sure to shoot up

hope you loaded up on your canadian equity mutual funds :lol:

also - have you ever heard the expression "don't try to catch a falling knife"?

[BadDrafter]

that metaphor doesn't make me very confident about our markets...

The OSC turning a blind eye to rampant fraud and institutional manipulation on the TSX doesn't make me confident about it either but it's still better then the Vancouver exchange.

What pitz said.

[B0000rt]

Short short short!

[winner2000]

I don't think it's that stupid, actually. The market is highly dependent on mass psychology, and a third big drop in a row could scare people into selling. A few bad days in succession definitely get people talking. Once everyone feels that the market is heading down, it heads down...


Well see, that's my point. What if there's a relief rally tomorrow and then the heavy selling starts again on Monday? Tomorrow people are going to say that Monday is a critical day to see if the rally holds. If the markets go down on Monday, then someone like you will say Tuesday is a critical day to see whether or not the sell-off will continue, or if we will bounce off the lows. And it goes on and on and on...

[bluedcfive]

put adequate protection in place and ride this one out

[sannin]

no wonder my mutual funds are down. Oi....

[Ferman]

Short short short!

That's what HXD is for... as a hedge..profit when the tsx sells off. It was up over 3% today.

[Matrix_dot_ca]

+1...

Tomorrow the TSX is sure to shoot up

you are so sure of your prediction.. Use your LOC and buy Canadian equities if you are "sure" to shoot up.

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

gold should shooot up again

[flito ray]

I basically sold off all my assets yesterday because the 7 year bull cycle has ended. You guys can keep buying stocks especially if it keeps correcting. lol

I'm up 19% for the year in my portfolio so I want to soladefy my gains.

[Bullseye]

I basically sold off all my assets yesterday because the 7 year bull cycle has ended. You guys can keep buying stocks especially if it keeps correcting. lol

I'm up 19% for the year in my portfolio so I want to soladefy my gains.

Flito returns! :lol:

[Blunt]

Flito returns! :lol:

Glad to hear Primerica is still in business.... :lol:

[questrader]

because the 7 year bull cycle has ended

Where did you get that info? So how long is the coming bear cycle gonna last?

[thelefteyeguy]

gold should shooot up again

my consensus too +1

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Bargain hunting seen boosting Toronto stocks
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/27072007/6/finance-bargain-hunting-boosting-toronto-stocks.html

today might be a good day

[controlyar]

I basically sold off all my assets yesterday because the 7 year bull cycle has ended. You guys can keep buying stocks especially if it keeps correcting. lol

I'm up 19% for the year in my portfolio so I want to soladefy my gains.

My god. After disappearing for a few months, you return with another hilarious post. What in the world are you smoking? The sad thing is that you are 100% serious. :lol:

Sold off your assets? I am surprised you even have anything left.

[krazy]

you are so sure of your prediction.. Use your LOC and buy Canadian equities if you are "sure" to shoot up.

Actually, I did load up on gold and canadian equities... with some more to spare, just in case it goes down again today.

[asdfvcx]

Actually, I did load up on gold and canadian equities... with some more to spare, just in case it goes down again today.
So you loaded up on gold and Canadian equities, because you know the TSX is sure to shoot up.

Except you didn't load up, because you kept some money out of play just in case it goes down today, even though you are sure it's going up. :confused:

You really might want to reconsider your statement that you'll never again take advice from a financial advisor. Trying to swing trade using mutual funds is just silly.

[thelefteyeguy]

more ugliness at noon...hopefully we'll see a bounce this afternoon when ppl cover.

[bluedcfive]

Actually, I did load up on gold and canadian equities... with some more to spare, just in case it goes down again today.

you loaded up on LLL didn't you?

[krazy]

you loaded up on LLL didn't you?

Yeah.... :mad: Was thinking of buying more today... but things seem to be turning around (was down 100 now it's down less than 20)... will wait till 2:30 before I make a move

[krazy]

So you loaded up on gold and Canadian equities, because you know the TSX is sure to shoot up.

Except you didn't load up, because you kept some money out of play just in case it goes down today, even though you are sure it's going up. :confused:

You really might want to reconsider your statement that you'll never again take advice from a financial advisor. Trying to swing trade using mutual funds is just silly.

I bought canadian equities and kept some more cash to spare (expecting a rough ride like today)... I don't see why that is wrong...

Regarding seeking advise from a financial advisor, I don't think so.. Don't mean to offend any financial advisor on this forum, but from the 3 financial advisors I have had, none have been helpful (my funds stayed flat, even when I asked for aggressive and high risk fund).

Come to think of it, swinging trade using mutual funds is actually silly (and stupid, and somebody has pointed out giving a link too)... but somehow, for me this had worked out pretty fine...

I have had pretty good gains and I do know there will be a time when I could get burned too... but that's the way it is... no pain no gain.

[cko64]

What a brutal week, lost about $10,000.

But also gave me a chance to buy more RY, BNS and TCK. I'm trying to load up the good stocks on the dip.

[batman321123]

They need to give me 'Net access at work... couldn't sell, couldn't buy >:(

[florch]

What a week to spend in a tent!

I'm long term so won't lose sleep. Would have been nice to buy some bargains. Maybe Monday...

[stevethewheel]

I'm bummed. I sold about 15% of my holdings last week to take profit and I bought back with most of it today. Which is not the bad part. The bad part is I've gotten used to the extended bull run and starting adjusting my spending accordinly. No bull means no spending on frills :(

[pitz]

I'm bummed. I sold about 15% of my holdings last week to take profit and I bought back with most of it today. Which is not the bad part. The bad part is I've gotten used to the extended bull run and starting adjusting my spending accordinly. No bull means no spending on frills :(

What do you think Bernanke and friends in the US are going to do to save the economy there now that the golden goose of housing is gone insofar as consumer spending is concerned?

Pump the stock market up, of course ;).

[krazy]

They need to give me 'Net access at work... couldn't sell, couldn't buy >:(

that could be really frustating...:)

[B0000rt]

They need to give me 'Net access at work... couldn't sell, couldn't buy >:(

Your broker doesn't support phone in order bookings? :D

[flito ray]

My god. After disappearing for a few months, you return with another hilarious post. What in the world are you smoking? The sad thing is that you are 100% serious. :lol:

Sold off your assets? I am surprised you even have anything left.

talking about equities and ETFs as my assets . putting them all in high interest saving account right now

i waiting for the 8%+ more correction before dip back in.

the only thing that ridiculous is how you keep ridiule me with no base of fact

[Thalo]

I'm doing the exact opposite, moving money from high interest savings into index funds. They're sure a lot cheaper than they were last week, but still I'd do it gradually, not all at once. You start with a little now and if the market happens to go up next week you make yourself a nice little gain. If it continues to slide you add a little more a week later. This volatility will all be over by the end of August.

[winner2000]

This volatility will all be over by the end of August.

Of course it will be.

While you're at it, can you also predict my future and where I'll be in 5 years? Thanks.

[hagbard]

Been telling myself for months now I need to pull out of equities, but been too lazy to do anything about it. Oh well, I knew the end was near.

[flito ray]

Been telling myself for months now I need to pull out of equities, but been too lazy to do anything about it. Oh well, I knew the end was near.

lol
i guess you have the crystal ball too
give it bak when you done w/ it lol

[hagbard]

Just looking at the economic reality. The present economy is a house of cards.

[notanexpert]

Just looking at the economic reality. The present economy is a house of cards.

The economy has been a house of cards ever since the central banks could print as much money as they wanted. So far that has worked, is there any reason as to why it should not work in the future? Any reason why that stopped working today, of all days?

[stevethewheel]

What do you think Bernanke and friends in the US are going to do to save the economy there now that the golden goose of housing is gone insofar as consumer spending is concerned?

Pump the stock market up, of course ;).

No biggie. I have relatively little US exposure, and it's been that way for me for over a year.

The headlines on this thread said TSX. How do you think a US pump-up will affect Canadian equities?

[Thalo]

Just looking at the economic reality. The present economy is a house of cards.

The Canadian economy is, at least. Ex-Alberta, BC, Sask, Manitoba. But even in the west we've got bubbles waiting to burst.

I love the ignorance of my customers when they say they want to keep everything in Canada because the "US economy is crashing". Even with the housing market woes and sub prime mortgage crunch they're beating us overall in GDP growth, killing us at productivity and going forward will benefit greatly from a weak US dollar (maybe finally bringing their trade deficit to reasonable levels). And we're in such a great position to buy US stocks/funds with our dollar being so strong.

[advantage21]

No biggie. I have relatively little US exposure, and it's been that way for me for over a year.

The headlines on this thread said TSX. How do you think a US pump-up will affect Canadian equities?

The same way the TSX (and other world markets) are crashes because the Dow is down on the subprime debacle. The US is Canada's largest trading partner, the Canadian and US economies are joined at the hip.

[BadDrafter]

Been telling myself for months now I need to pull out of equities, but been too lazy to do anything about it. Oh well, I knew the end was near.

You don't have to, just switch to securities in things that will still be in demand after a crash.

1. The world will always need oil until we run out. Most modern wars are fought over that, so you may as well get some for yourself.

2. The world will always need raw minerals like Gold and Uranium.

Being the fan of Ron Paul that you are you may as well also buy a few pounds of gold. I was thinking of doing the same thing myself.

You could also pull out completely and wait for it to bottom out and buy in during hard times. A recession or even a depression won't last forever. My brother did this after 9/11 and made a killing.

[retroman80s]

It's a new week, hopefully it's a much greener week. :)

[B0000rt]

It's a new week, hopefully it's a much greener week. :)

Black is the colours accountants use to indicate positive! :D

[pennywize]

Market seems pretty green so far. Hoping for another bull run :lol:

[stevethewheel]

Black is the colours accountants use to indicate positive! :D

Black would be the colour once you sell. Green is the indication. ;)

[B0000rt]

Black would be the colour once you sell. Green is the indication. ;)

True true! ;)

Curses, the USD-CAD exchange rate is going up :(

[krazy]

Market seems pretty green so far. Hoping for another bull run :lol:

Great start on the TSX today... let's see how long the bull run will go on before another correction...:)

[Arkaine]

:( hopefully it will go down some more lol
I just opened a non-registered account (since the registered one is maxed) to buy some of the same securities for cheap.

We'll see how things go!

[hagbard]

:( hopefully it will go down some more lol
I just opened a non-registered account (since the registered one is maxed) to buy some of the same securities for cheap.

We'll see how things go!

I'm betting it will.

[Arkaine]

I'm betting it will.

I agree with you. If not tomorrow, then sometime later this week. I'm not an analyst by an means, but most of this gain seems to stem from people like myself going bargain hunting. There was no economic data or subprime corrections that would have caused a 1% increase in the S&P 500. When the market balances out this week and the credit/housing market concerns start to become more evident, we should see another couple days of decreases.

But hey, what do I know. It could go up all this week!

[pitz]

I agree with you. If not tomorrow, then sometime later this week. I'm not an analyst by an means, but most of this gain seems to stem from people like myself going bargain hunting. There was no economic data or subprime corrections that would have caused a 1% increase in the S&P 500. When the market balances out this week and the credit/housing market concerns start to become more evident, we should see another couple days of decreases.

But hey, what do I know. It could go up all this week!

Actually, wasn't there a data release on late Friday, whereby US GDP exceeded expectations?

[winner2000]

Actually, wasn't there a data release on late Friday, whereby US GDP exceeded expectations?

He's talking about TODAY...the GDP figures were released Friday morning, before the open.

[Arkaine]

Actually, wasn't there a data release on late Friday, whereby US GDP exceeded expectations?

He's talking about TODAY...the GDP figures were released Friday morning, before the open.

Technically I think you're both right.
Yes the GDP data was released early morning, but people may have been too concerned with the recent selloffs and subprimes rates to look too much into those GDP figures. Now with the weekend past, those figures could have sparked some interest for some buyers.
I'm still set on the notion of Bargain Buying.

[Bullseye]

Looks like the correction is not over yet, many markets down quite a bit across the globe.

I bought a small amount of international index funds last week after the big drop, but I'm glad I held off doing more than I did. I'm going to DCA into this one, rather than attempting to time the bottom.

[majesus]

Interesting read. We will see what happens.

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

gold markets are like a dollar store bargain these days
soon it will shoot up

[sexpuppet6000]

im hating this

[majesus]

im hating this

Yeah me too. Last week, I just did my year's RSP contribution into the TSX TD E-fund. All well... in the end, still will be ahead.

[Bullseye]

Yeah me too. Last week, I just did my year's RSP contribution into the TSX TD E-fund. All well... in the end, still will be ahead.

You probably would have done better to split it into chunks and buy into the fund slowly over a longer period, bit at a time. That smooths out the bumps.

[15-20_God]

gold markets are like a dollar store bargain these days
soon it will shoot up

you mean the stock market is a heroin addict shopping for jewellery at dollarama?

[thelefteyeguy]

gold markets are like a dollar store bargain these days
soon it will shoot up

as of yesterday...my portfolio is a little overweight with gold jrs...my thinking is on the same lines of a bull run on gold in the near future.

[j0dan]

What a brutal week, lost about $10,000.

But also gave me a chance to buy more RY, BNS and TCK. I'm trying to load up the good stocks on the dip.

BNS.. *cries*

[thelefteyeguy]

BNS.. *cries*

more pain for BNS today

[Arkaine]

what a joke the way the market finished today lol
I am going to buy into it soon, maybe another week of waiting to see how things are going.
We'll see though!

[krazy]

what a joke the way the market finished today lol
I am going to buy into it soon, maybe another week of waiting to see how things are going.
We'll see though!

+1... It was brutal...:cry:

[Thalo]

I think within a week the DJIA will surpass the TSX composite number.

[Ferman]

BMO is paying over 4% dividend at these prices.

Also, that is essentially tax free if your income is under $60K.

Lots of deals the past few days.

[cil254]

Down again, -110.82 at time of posting.

[B0000rt]

http://z.about.com/d/pittsburgh/1/7/l/Q/kodiak_bear_2.jpg

:(

[Arkaine]

Down again, -110.82 at time of posting.

down 281.42... whoa baby! lol

I know mutual funds are all about "long term investing", but when is the point where you take everything out of an aggressive fund and leave it in a moderate-balanced fund for a month or so? lol

[asdfvcx]

I know mutual funds are all about "long term investing", but when is the point where you take everything out of an aggressive fund and leave it in a moderate-balanced fund for a month or so? lol
You mean buy high, sell low?

This isn't much of a correction. Take a look at the 6 or 12 month chart for the TSX. It's still up by quite a bit. It could fall another 1500 points and still be positive for the last 12 months.

If this small little correction has got you panicking, you really should take a closer look at your asset allocation, and decide if an "aggressive" allocation is really what you can handle.

But take your time and don't panic sell. That's the worse things you can do.

[jerryhung]

I think OP's title needs to be changed
As the title has applied to almost every day of last 2 weeks :(

It should read
"Another green day on TSX"

[cko64]

Brutal, absolutely brutal. The entire year's gain has been wiped out. Now, I am in the negative territory.

A week and a half ago, I was making $13,000 on paper, now I am -$3,500.

I hope next week will see the bull coming back.

[questrader]

I hope next week will see the bull coming back.
The slide already broke thru 2 key support levels. The market is about ~1% away from the 3rd support level. Maybe the bulls will come back when it reaches this level. But if it breaks thru that 3rd key support level, now at ~1% away, then all hell will break loose... JK.

[B0000rt]

Brutal, absolutely brutal. The entire year's gain has been wiped out. Now, I am in the negative territory.

A week and a half ago, I was making $13,000 on paper, now I am -$3,500.

I hope next week will see the bull coming back.

Look on the bright side, you won't have to file any Capital Gains come April :(

[pitz]

You probably would have done better to split it into chunks and buy into the fund slowly over a longer period, bit at a time. That smooths out the bumps.

+1

Seriously, you pay extra to buy mutual funds in the form of MERs. You may as well break your purchases into as many tiny transactions as possible.

[The Master]

Yea i've been hit pretty hard as well. Went from 4000 in mutual funds to 3000 this past week :mad:

[pitz]

Yea i've been hit pretty hard as well. Went from 4000 in mutual funds to 3000 this past week :mad:

Woah, what on earth did you/do you own?

Your portfolio doesn't sound very diversified at all. The broad market is only down less than 10%. If you have suffered a 25% loss in this environment, I think you really should understand the root causes of such a loss.

[bcbgboy13]

:arrowu:
My guess is we are going to see other posts here today

[winner2000]

:arrowu:
My guess is we are going to see other posts here today

Dang...hopefully we see a 3pm turnaround or something :\

[majesus]

The slide already broke thru 2 key support levels. The market is about ~1% away from the 3rd support level. Maybe the bulls will come back when it reaches this level. But if it breaks thru that 3rd key support level, now at ~1% away, then all hell will break loose... JK.

Hmmm, interesting, what does this mean? I would like to learn about the technique you are describing. Do you know where I can find some more literature on this?

[goobelygoop]

Hmmm, interesting, what does this mean? I would like to learn about the technique you are describing. Do you know where I can find some more literature on this?

Don't worry, he just pulled that stuff out of his ass.

But what he's using is something called technical analysis -- start here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_Analysis

[brunes]

Hmmm, interesting, what does this mean? I would like to learn about the technique you are describing. Do you know where I can find some more literature on this?

Technical analysis is a good tool to predict markets over the long term, but over a near term it is next to useless.

[Arkaine]

LOL wow not bad. Almost a 3% drop in the S&P 500.

[retroman80s]

Bummer, another horrible day.. What crazy mood swings the last couple of weeks.

Is this a sign that the market is starting to crack?

[majesus]

Technical analysis is a good tool to predict markets over the long term, but over a near term it is next to useless.

Don't worry, he just pulled that stuff out of his ass.

But what he's using is something called technical analysis -- start here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_Analysis
LOL, I was interested exactly what he was saying... not general info on technical analysis.

[bluedcfive]

go HXD!

[advantage21]

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Chairman's Letter


Does he look like he's fearful?

http://mooreslore.corante.com/archives/images/warren%20Buffet.jpg

[amplified]

Bummer, another horrible day.. What crazy mood swings the last couple of weeks.

Is this a sign that the market is starting to crack?

I dont think so. Much of the selling is due to the fears in the US. The TSX will be up and down for a couple months at least. Just ride it out if your already invested in the market. If you're sitting on cash, just keep sitting.

[hagbard]

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Chairman's Letter


Does he look like he's fearful?

http://mooreslore.corante.com/archives/images/warren%20Buffet.jpg

Yep.

[Blunt]

It's gonna be another bloody day on the market tomorrow...

brace yourselves...
:lol:

[questrader]

10 bucks says that tomorrow, the TSX won't close down by more than ~0.5% from today's close. Who wants to bet? (J/K -> not allowed to bet on RFD).

[cko64]

The day before, TSX was up; today it was down. I predict TSX will be up tomorrow.

[Thalo]

Each day the Financial Post headlines are opposite. Today's headline was talking about frenzied buying in the market (while watching today's market plunge). Tomorrow the headlines will be doomsday again.

[pitz]

Most NYSE interlisted TSX components rose in after-hours trading.

So maybe tomorrow will be a reprieve?

[Arkaine]

Most NYSE interlisted TSX components rose in after-hours trading.

So maybe tomorrow will be a reprieve?

Maybe not..

Top Financial News
Asian Stocks Plummet on Credit Fears

[goobelygoop]

S&P Fut. -25

Nasdaq Down -28

DJI Futures -205

I'm no market vet, but these are some of the worst futures I have ever seen in a long time...even worse than the crash in February, worse than the '03 tumble and approaching the levels we saw on the morning of Sept 11th.

[srkshah]

Is this the good time to buy or still keep on cash?

[konfusion666]

CIBC :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Germack]

Is this the good time to buy or still keep on cash?

Don't try to catch a falling knife or you may end up getting hurt!

[thelefteyeguy]

PRECIOUS METALS...get in and start to shift your portfolio.

Look the spot gold price today ;) and the associated large gold miners.

hopefully it will eventually flow down to my small cap gold shares soon

[B0000rt]

PRECIOUS METALS...get in and start to shift your portfolio.

Look the spot gold price today ;) and the associated large gold miners.

hopefully it will eventually flow down to my small cap gold shares soon

Go YRI! Go ELD!

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Go YRI! Go ELD!

gold goes up once again :)

[florch]

Quoting (actually probably paraphrasing) Warren Buffett: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Easy to say when you know what you're doing!

[questrader]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the bottom of the recent bear cycle. Feel free to stock up on Monday, cuz the TSX is going to go nowhere but up until the next correction 1.5-2.5 months from now.

[pitz]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the bottom of the recent bear cycle. Feel free to stock up on Monday, cuz the TSX is going to go nowhere but up until the next correction 1.5-2.5 months from now.

I think we're gonna stay flat here till the traditional November up-cycle kicks in.

Canadian economy is slowing big-time too, so look for a rate cut in Q4.

[Ferman]

Quoting (actually probably paraphrasing) Warren Buffett: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Easy to say when you know what you're doing!


Also from Warren Buffet:

"Rejoice when prices decline."

Good dividend paying stocks are available at discount prices.

[questrader]

I think we're gonna stay flat here till the traditional November up-cycle kicks in.

I don't think so. Man, you are like 90% fundamentals and 10% technical.
I'm more of a 60% technical 40% fundamentals kind of guy.
We're going to bounce around.
Up bounce starts on Monday and will end ~1.5-2.5 months down the road with 95% confidence.

[Advantage22]

I don't think so. Man, you are like 90% fundamentals and 10% technical.
I'm more of a 60% technical 40% fundamentals kind of guy.
We're going to bounce around.
Up bounce starts on Monday and will end ~1.5-2.5 months down the road with 95% confidence.


Yeah, OK, righto. This is coming from a market guru who doesn't understand margin (http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=468359).

I'd say you're more like 90% clueless and 10% BS.

[pitz]

I don't think so. Man, you are like 90% fundamentals and 10% technical.


My statement was merely an expression of opinion. I think you'd be hard pressed to find many Novembers in the history of the TSE/TSX that weren't nice and positive.

I understand its related heavily to the Canada Savings Bond issuance/renewal cycle. While not many actually invest in CSB's anymore, the cycle remains.

Last year, the upcycle in November was driven by the Haloween announcement by the Minister of Finance.


I'm more of a 60% technical 40% fundamentals kind of guy.
We're going to bounce around.
Up bounce starts on Monday and will end ~1.5-2.5 months down the road with 95% confidence.

Isn't TA just a bunch of nonsense? Do you actually make money trading based on TA? Do you add value (on an after-tax basis) versus just a buy and hold strategy based on fundamental analysis of individual companies or economies?

[Thalo]

Economists at the end of last year predicted the TSX would end the year at 14,000. By February this looked like an overly conservative prediction. Guess they'll be right in the end.

I think the November uptick is more of a result of October being the suck for stocks (historically).

[pitz]

Economists at the end of last year predicted the TSX would end the year at 14,000. By February this looked like an overly conservative prediction. Guess they'll be right in the end.

I think the November uptick is more of a result of October being the suck for stocks (historically).

I still don't see why we couldn't be at 15k this year easily, though I wouldn't buy the TSX Composite Index, but rather, I would buy the subset of the index known as the "TSX60" which is comprised of only the most liquid and largest firms in Canada. The expansion in Canada's economy in the past few years has been driven by tangible increases in production, particularly in the resources sector. Canadian credits are much healthier in comparison. And P/E ratios of the main Canadian stock indicies are still substantially below their long-term averages.

For all the talk of interest rates going up in the media, rates have actually gone down for the highest quality corporate and personal borrowers in the past few weeks.

One sector that I think could be in a lot of trouble going forward is the income trust sector. It is trading at a ludicrously high after-tax P/E of roughly 35 (based on a 32% tax bracket), and, being that trusts are often highly leveraged/indebted firms, credit tightening could really cramp, if not push many into liquidity crises and/or insolvency.

Many trusts are essentially ponzi schemes that constantly require new issuance of credit or equity in order to keep the distributions going. With that risky credit dissappearing....look out below.

[stevethewheel]

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Chairman's Letter


Most of the people I know are greedy even when they are fearful. Ask anyone who's fearful right now....are they still trying to figure out how to make a buck in these conditions?

[goobelygoop]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the bottom of the recent bear cycle. Feel free to stock up on Monday, cuz the TSX is going to go nowhere but up until the next correction 1.5-2.5 months from now.

Rejoice everyone! Mr. questrader has officially called a bottom!! Subprime worries are over! Oil will stay flat/go up to help support the TSX! Everything is well again! Thank you so much questrader!!!

[konfusion666]

so much for a market collapse...

[goob3r]

so much for a market collapse...

This is like proclaiming global warming is a sham due to one cold day and vice versa...

[konfusion666]

This is like proclaiming global warming is a sham due to one cold day and vice versa...

so you honestly expect our markets to collapse soon?

[hozer]

Personally, I wouldn't mind if it went down a couple thousand :)

Though I'm only 20 so I've got years.

[goob3r]

so you honestly expect our markets to collapse soon?

Not collapse, but go down some more. One day does not make a trend.

[goob3r]

Not collapse, but go down some more. One day does not make a trend.

lol. I guess I spoke too soon, just checked the TSX for the day. Move along, no beginning of an uptrend here.

[konfusion666]

lol. I guess I spoke too soon, just checked the TSX for the day. Move along, no beginning of an uptrend here.

yeah, me too. what a disappointment. :mad:

however, i do have faith in our markets and our economy so i figure whatever happens, there will be a fairly quick recovery.

[retroman80s]

Any day traders here? Do you love this kind of fluctionations?

[thelefteyeguy]

AHHHH....Venture is taking a huge beating today...i need a beer

[thelefteyeguy]

ugg...it's finally over ....i need to get hammered fast and forget today

[Neil]

Man where is the bottom on this correction?

Part of me thinks we've about reached it, but part of me thinks that's just wishful thinking.

The reality is that there's lots of good fundamentals that the economic bull market has been valid and should continue. But there is also the continuing worsening of the financial crisis in the USA that drives negative sentiment.... and in markets perception often IS reality or becomes it.

I've long been forecasting USA to enter and get stuck in a world of financial hurt. Their debt and deficit have gone unchecked for too long. Their productivity and industriousness seem to be a thing of the past. Their main agendas these days are about defense and protectionism... hardly items that will turn things around soon.

The big debate though is whether a US economic mess should actually have much negative bearing on the rest of us. Well it's already boosted gold and many other currencies.

A wise person I spoke to recently pointed out that Canadian markets being about 50% energy and materials, these are driven by global (not USA) demand. A US economic meltdown doesn't reduce the demand for energy or copper in China does it? So the long term rising demand for these shouldn't necessary be affected even if the USA loses a few banks or hedge funds does it?

One theory I heard floated on TV is that USA economic policy makers are willing to let things go to hell like they did in 1990 and we watched the S'n'L crisis unfold. After that mess, there was about a 15 year bull run so maybe the thinking is that we have a couple years of crisis and then a long recovery again.

[BadDrafter]

ugg...it's finally over ....i need to get hammered fast and forget today

No, tomorrow it will go down more, save your booze for then.

Not collapse, but go down some more. One day does not make a trend.

Three weeks do.

[pitz]

I've long been forecasting USA to enter and get stuck in a world of financial hurt. Their debt and deficit have gone unchecked for too long. Their productivity and industriousness seem to be a thing of the past. Their main agendas these days are about defense and protectionism... hardly items that will turn things around soon.


Everyone says the US has 'high productivity', but its the wrong kind of productivity. Essentially, if everyone in America became a mortgage broker, the GDP statistics would look great, but a nation cannot produce anything of value just by creating mortgage paper.

Half of the jobs created since 2000 were directly in the real estate and construction sectors, sectors for which there was no pre-existing shortage of existing capital stock. Just like the high tech sector 1996-2001, in the past few years, the housing sector has been borrowing a lot of demand from the future. A lot.



A wise person I spoke to recently pointed out that Canadian markets being about 50% energy and materials, these are driven by global (not USA) demand. A US economic meltdown doesn't reduce the demand for energy or copper in China does it? So the long term rising demand for these shouldn't necessary be affected even if the USA loses a few banks or hedge funds does it?


Hopefully China pursues a policy of encouraging internal consumption, rather than just playing currency manipulator to keep their exports cheap to the United States like they have been for the past few years.


One theory I heard floated on TV is that USA economic policy makers are willing to let things go to hell like they did in 1990 and we watched the S'n'L crisis unfold. After that mess, there was about a 15 year bull run so maybe the thinking is that we have a couple years of crisis and then a long recovery again.

Against the Canadian dollar, or against the Euro, or against gold, adjusted for inflation, the US stock market has lost ~70% of its value since 2000. The Canadian one has fared a bit better. I'm thinking a lot of this mess is already priced into stocks personally.

[Rifle]

No, tomorrow it will go down more, save your booze for then.



Three weeks do.

tomorrow will probably be another red day for the venture, as today was a crucial day, because the 2850 level was broken.

Although selling is drying up, I don't see anything that would provide an optimistic view in the near future.

[frugal69]

The reality is that there's lots of good fundamentals that the economic bull market has been valid and should continue. But there is also the continuing worsening of the financial crisis in the USA that drives negative sentiment.... and in markets perception often IS reality or becomes it.

I've long been forecasting USA to enter and get stuck in a world of financial hurt. Their debt and deficit have gone unchecked for too long. Their productivity and industriousness seem to be a thing of the past. Their main agendas these days are about defense and protectionism... hardly items that will turn things around soon.

Defence spending has hurt them alot but it was a gamble they took when they decided to go into Iraq. Plan was to overthrow the gov't, set up large oil companies (public companies & stock market) to sell the oil cheaply back to the US. That would've meant a return on the defence budget, but fact is they are now paying the financial price - without any return on investment

A wise person I spoke to recently pointed out that Canadian markets being about 50% energy and materials, these are driven by global (not USA) demand. A US economic meltdown doesn't reduce the demand for energy or copper in China does it? So the long term rising demand for these shouldn't necessary be affected even if the USA loses a few banks or hedge funds does it?

What comes around goes around. China is really just the middle man in the resource sector. They buy the resources to produce goods for the US. If the US does not buy China's goods, I doubt their own economy can absorb all the excess stock. Just my theory...

One theory I heard floated on TV is that USA economic policy makers are willing to let things go to hell like they did in 1990 and we watched the S'n'L crisis unfold. After that mess, there was about a 15 year bull run so maybe the thinking is that we have a couple years of crisis and then a long recovery again.

My guess is that the banks will take the hit. Aside from the mortgage thing, businesses will start to go bankrupt, consumers will be unable to pay back their loans etc... vicious cycle begins... just wondering where it will all stop... some are forecasting mid 2008 so that's quite a long time to be sliding down... wow, what a pessimistic post... sorry...

[climacus]

A US economic meltdown doesn't reduce the demand for energy or copper in China does it? So the long term rising demand for these shouldn't necessary be affected even if the USA loses a few banks or hedge funds does it?

Yes, but it affects the service sector, which makes up the rest of our export. We will be in a world of hurt if the US economy tanks.

Since the housing ATM party is over, it's now up to the Federal Reserve to play the reinflation game to keep the party going a little longer.

[thelefteyeguy]

IM OUT OF BOOZE :cry:

need to make a beer run!


getting hammered tonight agaiN!

[frugal69]

thelefteyeguy - AHHHH....Venture is taking a huge beating today...i need a beer

Yeah, you need some beer man! Even a couple of Yagermeisters!

Most people are fleeing to capital preservation and you're betting on juniors with usually no profit. You have a set of big Kahunahs if you can stomach the Venture exchange.

All the Best !!!

[goobelygoop]

This is getting kinda annoying...down -150+ everyday?? Geez....

Then again, I wasn't complaining when we were going up and up and up :lol: :D

[djjosee]

Woo Hoo ... what a buying opportunity!

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Tsx :mad:

[Neil]

What comes around goes around. China is really just the middle man in the resource sector. They buy the resources to produce goods for the US. If the US does not buy China's goods, I doubt their own economy can absorb all the excess stock. Just my theory...

I see it quite differently. The demand in China is due to population, and their massive and growing population is completely changing their expectations about how they live. A generation ago Chinese population lived in basic villages. Now there are masses that expect modern housing, appliances, vehicles, and all the things we in the west take for granted. Their appetite for materials is not all to sell us back things, but is fueled by domestic demand. That's my theory at least.


My guess is that the banks will take the hit.Banks never take the hit though, they have ways to pass it on to the average Joe or they get government bail outs.


Aside from the mortgage thing, businesses will start to go bankrupt, consumers will be unable to pay back their loans etc... vicious cycle begins...
This I can agree with. When headlines list financial companies collapsing that will affect consumer sentiment all over the place.

The US (and to an extent Canadian) real estate boom has been a bet on the future that isn't totally supported by the math. How can housing prices rise 30% every year while earnings only rise 3%? And those extra earnings are more than gobbled up in increased utility, household goods, health care, and taxes. How long before there's a crack in the big divide?

[cko64]

We are at "Correction" territory, TSX is down 11% from July 15 high.

[Bullseye]

At these prices, dividend rates alone on financial stocks are getting pretty attractive.

[BadDrafter]

How can housing prices rise 30% every year while earnings only rise 3%?

Move to Saskatchewan, problem solved.

[Neil]

Move to Saskatchewan, problem solved.

Were you aware Sask housing prices rose more than Alberta's this year?

[Arkaine]

LOL, this is kind of fun. It can only go so low before we have a nice longggggg bull run :)
I definitely need to buy some more funds/shares soon!

[goobelygoop]

Move to Saskatchewan, problem solved.

Why does everyone keep thinking Saskatchewan is such a "flop" province...it's actually doing quite well, minus the population drop. If you REALLY want cheap housing, I'm sure you'd find it in some areas in the Atlantic provinces (Northern Nova Scotia, anyone?)

[malbadon]

Semen Sask is always my favourite town to whip out on my friends when they make that "move to somewhere cheap" comment. 9k houses! :)

[pitz]

Why does everyone keep thinking Saskatchewan is such a "flop" province...it's actually doing quite well, minus the population drop. If you REALLY want cheap housing, I'm sure you'd find it in some areas in the Atlantic provinces (Northern Nova Scotia, anyone?)

Saskatchewan doing well? lol. Nothing could be further from the truth. The population declines have been enormous in the past decade, and its only seniors and retirees moving there for the cheap drugs, cheap houses, and generous welfare programs.

Apparently speculators are coming into places like Moose Jaw, Swift Current, etc., and buying 2 or 3 houses a day with absolutely no intention of living there. All debt fuelled. It can't end anything but badly, just like the high tech days when people were bidding up anything related to technology with borrowed money.

[Thalo]

At these prices, dividend rates alone on financial stocks are getting pretty attractive.

After tax dividend yield on bank stocks now better than bond yields, plus a lot more upside potential.

[gingin]

so for investment, what's the probable place to invest, or stay put in our current investment, and just wait it out?

[Advantage22]

Asia is dropping big right now. The North American Market is going down tomorrow, again.

[pitz]

so for investment, what's the probable place to invest, or stay put in our current investment, and just wait it out?

The market really wasn't overvalued prior to this recent meltdown, at least in Canada, on a P/E basis, compared to bonds. So the recovery should be quite spectacular if you have cash to buy now.

[Thalo]

I'm thinking repetition of 1999 after the 1998 mini-meltdown.

[Neil]

Saskatchewan doing well? lol. Nothing could be further from the truth. The population declines have been enormous in the past decade, and its only seniors and retirees moving there for the cheap drugs, cheap houses, and generous welfare programs.

Oh boy, pitz are you really going to do this again? Wasn't it embarrassing enough the last time you got outed for posting a bunch of totally wrong info about Saskatchewan just a few months ago?

Your most recent claim rang false to me, so I checked to confirm you couldn't be more wrong. Sask population has been stable as a rock over the last 3 decades, never rising or falling more than 2% between censuses. Whether that's good or bad isn't really the point, just that as usual your personal difficulties there back in the 80's are causing to ignore the facts and spread more BS.

http://www.stats.gov.sk.ca/pop/census8106.pdf

[Arkaine]

Asia is dropping big right now. The North American Market is going down tomorrow, again.

Not bad.. you called it big time.

Top Financial News

Asian, European Stocks Fall
Asian stocks hit their lowest levels in months Thursday -- and European stocks followed in early trade.

U.S. Stocks Head for Further Pullback

[pitz]

Oh boy, pitz are you really going to do this again? Wasn't it embarrassing enough the last time you got outed for posting a bunch of totally wrong info about Saskatchewan just a few months ago?


The data I presented wasn't wrong at all. You should be the one embarrassed to be defending what is going on in a rapidly failing economy that was in recession last year, ex the healthcare sector.


Your most recent claim rang false to me, so I checked to confirm you couldn't be more wrong. Sask population has been stable as a rock over the last 3 decades, never rising or falling more than 2% between censuses.


Which is declining with respect to the rest of Canada. Canada has what, tripled, quadrupled since the 1940s, yet population has remained flat. And in the past year or two, population hit a 15-year low. Yes, a few people have returned from Alberta, but thats hardly a population boom. The province still isn't back to the levels of the late 1980s.


Whether that's good or bad isn't really the point, just that as usual your personal difficulties there back in the 80's are causing to ignore the facts and spread more BS.

"Personal difficulties"? What are you talking about? Not a single statement of mine was BS, Saskatchewan population has not grown, and has shrunk precipitously as a percentage of the overall Canadian, North American, and world populations. This is due to failed socialist economic policy and a complete lack of confidence in the Government and its leadership.

[pitz]

I'm thinking repetition of 1999 after the 1998 mini-meltdown.

That would be nice....but which sector(s) will take leadership?

[RestIsHistory]

Bloody Red again

S&P/TSX -307.34

[Bullseye]

The sheeple begin to panic, and start stampeding for the exits...

[djjosee]

Good read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/12/business/yourmoney/12every.html?ex=1187755200&en=133a174993b9ea2f&ei=5070&emc=eta1

[Dibble]

http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.index_today?pi_symbol=JX-I

TSX Venture Index... Lost 6.2% in 30minutes?

EDIT: Make that 6.4% in 31 minutes... :P

[Bullseye]

As of this morning, all 2007 gains have been erased from the TSX.

[Bullseye]

I basically sold off all my assets yesterday because the 7 year bull cycle has ended. You guys can keep buying stocks especially if it keeps correcting. lol

I'm up 19% for the year in my portfolio so I want to soladefy my gains.

^^ Flito's post on July 27th earlier in this thread. Looks like RFD's Rain man is apparently a genius, and we're all schmucks. All hail Flito Ray!:lol:

[Dibble]

Amount of Money the US Fed Reserve injects into the Financial Market: $24B
Amount of Money the EU Central Bank injects into the Financial Market: $130.2B
Amount of Outstanding Asset-Backed Securities in EU and US: $4.2T
Fear of a Global Economic Meltdown: Priceless

[matkun]

Fear of a Global Economic Meltdown: Priceless

Personally, I like this chart:
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.show_chart?iaction=Generate&pl_period=12D&pl_primary_listing=JX-I

Looks like it's at ~November 2006 level right now.

[Dibble]

Looks like it's recoverying a little now...
Maybe in reaction to http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070816.wbailout0816/BNStory/Front/home?tag=marketing

[goobelygoop]

Looks like it's recoverying a little now...
Maybe in reaction to http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070816.wbailout0816/BNStory/Front/home?tag=marketing

This story was out before the bell, so it would have already been factored.

Anyways, anyone wanna guess how many points down we'll be closing today? 300? 400? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say -450...only because we tend to see a bad morning, a mid-day recovery of varying proportions, and then 3:30 onwards it seems to just sell off and close at its lows. So -450 is my prediction. Anyone else?

[hagbard]

As of this morning, all 2007 gains have been erased from the TSX.

Well, I'm safe then, I didn't have any gains in 2007. :|

[Thalo]

At this point I don't even care any more. I'm just watching in glee as great stocks tumble becoming ever more affordable. Won't list which ones, because that would be making a stock recommendation, but there's stocks I've been chasing up in price (ie: I put a bid in for $X, price never dips below that price, I put a higher bid in, stock keeps going up, etc) all year and I can finally buy them now.

In regards to the Sask economy, I think they're doing pretty well now, what with the soaring price of Uranium. Saskatoon can actually boast one thing that Edmonton doesn't have: headquarters of an NYSE listed company.

[goob3r]

As of this morning, all 2007 gains have been erased from the TSX.

I crossed the threshold today too...

[rdtx2002]

i say we'll drop 600 points.

[BadDrafter]

Well, I'm safe then, I didn't have any gains in 2007. :|

You said gold would be safe.

Gold went down 2% because people pulled out of gold as well.

[Thalo]

I've been trying to search for the post I posted a week or two ago where I said that within two weeks the DJIA will be higher than the TSX.

Just wondering: if this subprime credit problem is mainly a U.S. problem, howcome Canadian markets have been hit much harder than U.S. markets? I guess it could be attributed to financial companies being a bigger share of the index but how does a problem that affects only 0.6% of the overall U.S. mortgage market (according to the Chicken Little article) affect us so deeply? Could it be OVERREACTION?

[hagbard]

Good read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/12/business/yourmoney/12every.html?ex=1187755200&en=133a174993b9ea2f&ei=5070&emc=eta1

"Bueller?" "Bueller?" "Anyone?"

But seriously, wasn't it the NYT's that pushed the idea that Saddam has WMD, as did Ben Stein? They've lost credibility in my eyes. Would be nice if what he said here true however.

[hagbard]

You said gold would be safe.

Gold went down 2% because people pulled out of gold as well.

Its all psychology. Right now, its all negative. A falling stock market and a falling gold market run at odds. I think we're at a point that people don't know where to put their money, me included. In May of last year, I was convinced the sky was falling when I lost $4000 in my RRSPs, within three months, I'd gained all that back plus some. Since, the gains have been rolled back (but I think I still slightly ahead of May 2006. The way I look at it, I'll loose whatever I do so I'll do nothing.

[rdtx2002]

I've been trying to search for the post I posted a week or two ago where I said that within two weeks the DJIA will be higher than the TSX.

Just wondering: if this subprime credit problem is mainly a U.S. problem, howcome Canadian markets have been hit much harder than U.S. markets? I guess it could be attributed to financial companies being a bigger share of the index but how does a problem that affects only 0.6% of the overall U.S. mortgage market (according to the Chicken Little article) affect us so deeply? Could it be OVERREACTION?

i heard on the radio that it is 12% of the mortgage market in the USA that is having problems.

In Canada, we have a commercial paper market problem.

[konfusion666]

Hilarious. CIBC Investor's Edge:

TSX and CDNX Trades Execution on Best Efforts Basis


Due to heavy volume, processing of trades on TSX and CDNX is being done on a best efforts basis.

[Thalo]

i heard on the radio that it is 12% of the mortgage market in the USA that is having problems.

In Canada, we have a commercial paper market problem.

According to the article 13% of the U.S. mortgage market IS sub-prime, but only a portion of that is delinquent, a portion of that is in default, a portion of what is in default is recoverable through foreclosure, leaving about $67 billion in likely losses in a $10 trillion market.

I think all the big 5 have U.S. subsidiaries: TD Banknorth, RBC Centura, etc. and those subsidiaries may have a small portion at risk in the sub prime market but those subsidiaries are such a tiny share of the overall bank that it's a joke that they should affect the parent company's stock so much.

As far as commercial paper goes, Coventree is just one company out of many. I think their paper is too high risk for the major banks to deal with anyway.

[rdtx2002]

According to the article 13% of the U.S. mortgage market IS sub-prime, but only a portion of that is delinquent, a portion of that is in default, a portion of what is in default is recoverable through foreclosure, leaving about $67 billion in likely losses in a $10 trillion market.

i guess the problem is the rate that the delinquents are appearing.

hmm... TSX down 466

[Octavius]

This story was out before the bell, so it would have already been factored.

Anyways, anyone wanna guess how many points down we'll be closing today? 300? 400? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say -450...only because we tend to see a bad morning, a mid-day recovery of varying proportions, and then 3:30 onwards it seems to just sell off and close at its lows. So -450 is my prediction. Anyone else?

-490 as of right now (12:13pm EST). I'm gonna buy few hundred dollars worth of mutual funds today and I think that will be my last purchase until the market recovers (so ~ few months maybe?)

[Dibble]

Fear of a Credit Crisis is self-fulfilling.

[gizmo8]

Greenspan was right...he predicted a recession by late 2007 with that carrying over to mid 2008..that man is god..:):cheesygri

[Thalo]

-490 as of right now (12:13pm EST). I'm gonna buy few hundred dollars worth of mutual funds today and I think that will be my last purchase until the market recovers (so ~ few months maybe?)

Wait till a few days before the big 5 banks start announcing record profits next week.

[rdtx2002]

getting ever so close to my 600 prediction.. (not that i wanted it)

[hagbard]

Greenspan was right...he predicted a recession by late 2007 with that carrying over to mid 2008..that man is god..:):cheesygri

Easy to predict something if you're its author.

[goobelygoop]

Greenspan was right...he predicted a recession by late 2007 with that carrying over to mid 2008..that man is god..:):cheesygri

Some would argue it was HIS policies (i.e. 1% FF rate) that got us in this mess today...so I have the feeling not everyone would agree with the GOD statement lol

[pitz]

In regards to the Sask economy, I think they're doing pretty well now, what with the soaring price of Uranium. Saskatoon can actually boast one thing that Edmonton doesn't have: headquarters of an NYSE listed company.

Too bad that the main mine of that major uranium producer is shut down though ;). By the time they get it un-flooded, and back up and running, uranium prices might not be so high.


This meltdown doesn't make a lot of sense at least in the Canadian perspective. The Canadian banks should emerge stronger than ever out of this mess, with many of the smaller, less credible players shunned from the market.

One thing that should go away in a serious way is vendor financing, for instance, financing a Honda with the Bank of Honda. There is an implicit conflict of interest involved when, for example, a car dealer is both the seller of an asset, and the financier. Vendor-financing is much more likely to improperly price and underwrite credit risk in pursuit of the 'sale' by another division of the same company.

Re-allocating this business back to the banks should be accretive to the major banks' profitability. The bond market will demand the maximum in credibility, independance, and credit surveillance/underwriting expertise before it purchases additional securitized debts in this fashion.

The mortgage brokering business also should drastically be reduced in size as well for many of the same reasons. Its highly illogical that a third-party mortgage broker will lend me CIBC's money at a lower rate than CIBC themselves will lend.

The cost of obtaining credit against liquid, marked-to-market assets should fall in the coming weeks/months. The cost of obtaining credit against illiquid assets that are not marked to market should rise. In other words, if you are looking for a stock loan, great. If you are looking for a home loan, watch out!

[gizmo8]

Some would argue it was HIS policies (i.e. 1% FF rate) that got us in this mess today...so I have the feeling not everyone would agree with the GOD statement lol

Ok not god...LOL!!!

[Thalo]

They're still the largest Uranium producer in the world, and that mine should be back up soon and they've got plenty of more projects in the work.

Regarding bank lending through intermediaries, there is something I've noticed, working at the bank. Often times a customer will apply for credit through us directly and there's no way in hell we would approve them for it. They go through a dealership (that does their financing through our indirect credit center) or a mortgage broker and the deal is approved no questions asked at a ridiculously low interest rate. Usually the customers don't have bad credit, it's just less than stellar and in most cases it's the ratios that are off. They don't have the income to support the credit, yet the mortgage broker or the car dealership will give it to them.

I hope that doesn't become an issue for the major banks in the future, but I sure hope we see a lot less of it.

[goobelygoop]

OMG the -600 guy is almost right!

And the Venture is down -11%....shouldn't there be some rules or something to halt trades, limit trades or shut the whole thing down for a few hours?

[thelefteyeguy]

all hell's breaking lose

Finance Minister to have a statement this afternoon.


hope he lowers the interest rate...tho I doubt it.

Stupid ppl with margins calls....buying stock on credit :(

[goobelygoop]

all hell's breaking lose

Finance Minister to have a statement this afternoon.


hope he lowers the interest rate...tho I doubt it.

Stupid ppl with margins calls....buying stock on credit :(

If the finance minister forced the BOC to lower rates, could you IMAGINE how much trouble there'd be? It wouldn't even be worth it.

[netriones]

Mr. market is going crazy..:D :twisted:

[rdtx2002]

OMG the -600 guy is almost right!

And the Venture is down -11%....shouldn't there be some rules or something to halt trades, limit trades or shut the whole thing down for a few hours?

i'm not going to say i'm correct or take any pride in saying that we'll drop about 600 points.. since I have some money that i'm losing as well..

we'll see what happens later in the day, hopefully there will be some buying action for those that want cheap stock to buy

[thelefteyeguy]

If the finance minister forced the BOC to lower rates, could you IMAGINE how much trouble there'd be? It wouldn't even be worth it.

rephrase...he's announcing a interest rate cut..."not lowering it"

but again...i speculate it will be a low chance of that

[rdtx2002]

what Canada needs to do is to find another major trading partner.. we need to dissolve our ties with the people down south ;)

[retroman80s]

Could there be a black friday tomorrow??? :eek: :eek:

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Could there be a black friday tomorrow??? :eek: :eek:

whats a black friday

[rdtx2002]

some buyback.. only down -484

[konfusion666]

what Canada needs to do is to find another major trading partner.. we need to dissolve our ties with the people down south ;)

as if the Euro and Asian markets weren't also in turmoil...

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

how long does money take to go to quest trade
if i do a bill payment

[retroman80s]

whats a black friday

A Quote from:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackfriday.asp

1. A day of stock market catastrophe. Originally, Sept 24, 1869 was deemed Black Friday. The crash was sparked by gold speculators, including Jay Gould and James Fist, who attempted to corner the gold market. The attempt failed and the gold market collapsed, causing the stock market to plummet.

[netriones]

how long does money take to go to quest trade
if i do a bill payment

couple days

[rdtx2002]

as if the Euro and Asian markets weren't also in turmoil...

i just think Canada will do much better if we diversify our exports more.

[advantage21]

what Canada needs to do is to find another major trading partner.. we need to dissolve our ties with the people down south ;)

Yeah, sure, OK, we'll get right on it.......

[Dibble]

i just think Canada will do much better if we diversify our exports more.

problem with this 'analysis' is, it's one-sided.
you need something to base that on.

if most of the global economy is based on the United States ability to spend on imports, you will realize that diversifying your trading partners will most likely do more harm to us than the benefits it may provide.

sure, diversifying reduces risks associated with a single trading partner (the US, for example) making a large impact on your economy... but if one economy technically maintains global trading due to it's enormous spending power (i.e. USA)... diversifying won't help and it'd just hurt Canada-US relations.

let me explain.
if the United States economy tanks, the world's largest importer will certainly reduce the number of exports that other countries would be able to initiate with the United States... and in turn, need to reduce their imports to maintain a feasible trade balance. it's literally a domino effect where if the USA reduces imports, other countries who directly trade with them will be forced to export less and thus import less... which is also exports of other countries.... and there goes global trading. if the whole point of diversifying is to reduce the risk that you'd be dependent on one trading power, this examples eliminates all benefits of it. instead, in reducing your trades with your next door neighbour... you'd be trading with asia/europe... which would not sit too well with Canada-US relations. Not to mention, when the US economy does go down the drain, the first place American investors look to cover their losses is a pullout from Asian/Emerging Markets -- crippling their ability to trade (with you).

[matkun]

Yeah, sure, OK, we'll get right on it.......

one AOFTA (Atlantic Ocean FTA) and POFTA (Pacifi.. you know the rest) coming right up?

[thelefteyeguy]

i just think Canada will do much better if we diversify our exports more.

based on economic theory 101...the world economy doesnt work that way.

[rdtx2002]

based on economic theory 101...the world economy doesnt work that way.

only because this ain't a perfect world.

[Neil]

The population declines have been enormous in the past decade, and its only seniors and retirees moving there for the cheap drugs, cheap houses, and generous welfare programs.


Saskatchewan population has not grown, and has shrunk precipitously as a percentage of the overall Canadian, North American, and world populations.

Ha, you're totally Clintonizing yourself. One day you say "enormous" population declines, but when the facts are brought out you you add all kinds of wiggle words.

Some other false pitz claims:

And in the past year or two, population hit a 15-year low.

Facts:
http://www.stats.gov.sk.ca/

Saskatchewan's population was 990,212 on April 1, 2007
(considering Sask population hovers between 950,000-1,000,000 this puts it near the TOP of a 15 year trend, not the bottom. as you claim.

The most recent trend shows increase of 5,167 over the last year... not a 'boom' per se, but certainly not the "enormous decline" you are claiming.


The province still isn't back to the levels of the late 1980s.

Facts:

In the late 1980's Sask population was 980,000-990,000. Current population is 990,000. You may be thinking of the mid 80's where population peaked at 1,000,000 but there's hardly a significant difference once you are talking fractions of less than 1 percent.

The interesting thing is that many of your claims would be true... if this were 30 years ago. It's almost as if you locked in a bunch of facts and opinions into your head back in the 80's when you were in Sask, and you haven't updated them in the subsequent decades.

If you were claiming the non-growing population is a concern that would be one thing. Or you could make some accurate suppositions about how the demographic composition of that stable population is changing. But basically everything you've been saying on this is dead wrong or at least horribly outdated.

[Dibble]

only because this ain't a perfect world.

that's a poor argument...
your definition of a perfect world is most likely different from others. you're basing your argument on the fact that your opinion is different from what actually occurs in the world economy (economic theory)?

[konfusion666]

RTQ GSPTSE: ~12800

looks like a recovery of some sort.

[goobelygoop]

Yeah look at the Dow...it's practically break-even! S&P went positive! :-0

Dow Positive! Maria B. going insane!! LOL

[rdtx2002]

RTQ GSPTSE: ~12800

looks like a recovery of some sort.

as usual.. after a big drop, there are bargain hunters.

[konfusion666]

as usual.. after a big drop, there are bargain hunters.

yup i was one of them ;)

hopefully it's all good news from now on through...

[sweedy]

Had the wildest one-day ride since I started investing. At one point I thought I am going to lose 10% of my leveraged investment. At the end of the day, happily surprised to find some gain (albeit small) instead.

Did some bargain hunting and reached the leverage limit I set for myself. Will Mr. Market give us more opportunities like this in the near future?

[rdtx2002]

lowest was -586.. ended up at -200.

nice recovery.

[sucka]

That's always been the trend, large drop then bargain hunters come in and picks it up a bit. I expect the same tomorrow, with another large drop and then slight recovery, but overall it will still be down ~1% to 2%.

[brunes]

That's always been the trend, large drop then bargain hunters come in and picks it up a bit. I expect the same tomorrow, with another large drop and then slight recovery, but overall it will still be down ~1% to 2%.

I saw an analyst today with Thompson who had a lot of numbers to back up the fact that this correction is an emotional overreaction to the subprime situation, and that by early next year at the latest we will have seen a huge rebound.

Anyone who has extra cash lying around, I would be buying right now.

[Arkaine]

I saw an analyst today with Thompson who had a lot of numbers to back up the fact that this correction is an emotional overreaction to the subprime situation, and that by early next year at the latest we will have seen a huge rebound.

Anyone who has extra cash lying around, I would be buying right now.

I'll be buying soon. The dividend funds that I wanted are cheaper now then they were in January. It's fairly minimal risk and I'm in this for 10+ years, so unless we see another 20% reduction there shouldn't be much of an effect.
My biggest question is should I lump sum it or weekly additions.
We'll see.

[cko64]

I kept buying and buying and buying, all good dividend paying stocks. I hope it will start to rebound next week.

[sweedy]

I kept buying and buying and buying, all good dividend paying stocks. I hope it will start to rebound next week.

Hopefully rebound after I make the next round of purchase.

[hagbard]

If it rebounds, I'm pulling out once I'm back up to where I was.

[ZenOps]

Kaboom!

Well, for the first time in a long time, I'm actually behind this year.

I sold off 60 percent of my stocks back in May (Sell in May and stay away), but I guess it wasn't enough.

Looking to pickup more in September, if the volatility smooths out a bit, if not im avoiding the markets all year.

[Thalo]

Bank stocks really rallied near the close. Here's hoping they keep it up tomorrow.

[advantage21]

Asia is down big again right now. Brace yourselves, another big hit is on the way.

[Arkaine]

Top Financial News
Asian Markets Fall; Tokyo Down 5.4 Pct.

Well.... that doesn't look very good! lol

[aqs2k]

Can someone briefly explain what this may mean for mortgage rates in Canada. Are they now due to shoot up even higher than aticipated come this fall?

Thanks

[ZenOps]

Things are all set up for a black friday.

Asia markets are crumbling. Nikkei is down 874 points...

The streets are gonna be bloody red today.

Markets open in one hour, I wonder how many people have puts right at the bell?

[Bullseye]

Can someone briefly explain what this may mean for mortgage rates in Canada. Are they now due to shoot up even higher than aticipated come this fall?

Thanks

My feeling is that rates will be headed down again soon, not higher up.

[rdtx2002]

the futures are up.. so there might be an initial rally

[rdtx2002]

up 350 points.

the dollar is up 1.3 cents.

[konfusion666]

the futures are up.. so there might be an initial rally

seems more than just an "initial" rally... BMO.TO is at 66 right now, it hit the low of 60 yesterday.... maybe it means everything's ok now? :lol:

[rdtx2002]

seems more than just an "initial" rally... BMO.TO is at 66 right now, it hit the low of 60 yesterday.... maybe it means everything's ok now? :lol:


we shall see.. now it's up close to 400 pts.

besides.. the financial sector was really the only sector 'unharmed' from the losses this week.

[ZenOps]

Hmm, interesting.

They announced a 0.5% rate cut in the US from 6.25% to 5.75% this morning. Unusual move, as normally it would only be a 0.25% as a quick fix to prop up the markets.

Looks like its helping a lot.

[TheDude79]

My feeling is that rates will be headed down again soon, not higher up.

Nobody, not even the financial gurus out there, has any real clue what the crap is going on and how far it's gonna go. To see the Fed make an emergency decision like this rate change doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies about the current state of affairs.

[konfusion666]

we shall see.. now it's up close to 400 pts.

besides.. the financial sector was really the only sector 'unharmed' from the losses this week.

I think that the financial sector was originally "harmed" quite badly (reflected when RY went down to 50, BMO went down to 60, etc.) because investors assumed they had significant ABCP exposure... that proved to not be the case so I guess they should be spared the carnage... and now with the rate cut, maybe we won't need to use words like "carnage"

[brunes]

Congrats to everyone who saw through the hype and bought yesterday :P

[ZenOps]

I wouldn't say its necessarily hype.

If they didn't drop the rates 0.5% as a precautionary measure for today, I don't think the markets would be rebounding anywhere near as fast.

[Bullseye]

Congrats to everyone who saw through the hype and bought yesterday :P

A tad early for that, I suspect.

[Thalo]

Hmm, interesting.

They announced a 0.5% rate cut in the US from 6.25% to 5.75% this morning. Unusual move, as normally it would only be a 0.25% as a quick fix to prop up the markets.

Looks like its helping a lot.

Looks like Craemer's death threats finally came through to Bernanke.

[Thalo]

*&@#, now we're back in the negative. Way to go Canada! Way to ruin a perfectly good Friday rally. Bah! I'm going to work.

[rdtx2002]

like i said.. 'initial' rally.. lets see hwat happens after lunch.

[thelefteyeguy]

explanation of what went about the last few weeks: don't take his advice literally but read his explanation of what's going on...be warned it's a long read but very informative for some with little finance background:

(also explains why insurance companies like manulife took a pretty big hit yesterday)


Global Financial System in Jeopardy!
Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Aug 13, 2007 - 03:16 PM
By: Money_and_Markets


Martin Weiss writes : For the first time since 9-11, central banks around the world are pouring massive amounts of fresh new cash into their markets.

On Thursday alone, Japan pumped in $8.4 billion … Australia injected $4.2 billion … the U.S. pumped in $24 billion … and the European Central Bank flooded its banking system with an unprecedented $130 billion! And on Friday, they did it again , opening the money floodgates in similar quantities.

Why?


Is the global economy suddenly contracting? No.

Are the world's largest banks suddenly going broke? No.

So what has prompted these governments to pour out so much money so soon?

The answer:

They're afraid the mortgage meltdown in the United States could trigger massive failures in the international financial system.

Back in 1998, that's almost what happened: Russia defaulted on its debts. A major hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, collapsed. Banks recoiled in horror. Stock and bond markets nosedived. And the world's financial system was perilously close to the brink.

That was nine years ago.

Nine months ago, in our November 2006 Safe Money Report, we laid out a scenario of how this was likely to happen again and in a bigger way.

We explained how a mortgage market collapse would lead to a credit crunch, and how a credit crunch could threaten the financial system.

Plus, we pledged to monitor the situation and to alert you when we felt it was becoming an immediate danger.

Now, that time has come.

Just 48 hours ago, in its lead Saturday article, The Wall Street Journal's headline declared …

"Tumult Is Testing New Machinery of World Finance."

And just a few hours before, bankers all over the world also rang alarm bells — not just about turmoil in the mortgage markets, but also about …

Turmoil in the market for commercial paper — short-term corporate IOUs that large companies depend upon for their immediate cash-flow financing.
Turmoil in the market for credit-default swaps — investments that institutions rely upon to protect themselves against defaults by weak borrowers, and …
Turmoil in the market for countless new investments that most people have never heard of.
I don't care how remote or esoteric this may sound. I fear it could have an immediate impact on your money. And I feel you must have a good understanding of what it's all about.

That's why I am dedicating this morning's message to the heart of the matter, namely …

The Gigantic, Poorly-Known, Highly Inflammable Market For DERIVATIVES …

What are derivatives? Think of them as bets and debts by the super-rich and the world's largest companies.

What's the market for derivatives like? Think of it as a giant international casino:

In the main hall, they bet on the interest-rate roulette.
In the side rooms, they bet on foreign-currency blackjack, commodity craps or stock-market poker.
And in virtually every sector, the bets are financed with generous amounts of borrowed money.
But unlike ordinary markets that you and I are familiar with, this giant casino is not just about betting on a price that goes up or down. It's about betting on virtually every quirk and intricacy of nearly every investment under the sun.

Some of the bets are high risk; some are not.

Some are for hedging against losses; some, for outright speculation.

But everywhere, the dangers are undeniable:


Danger #1
The Sheer Enormity of the Derivatives Market

In its latest survey, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) calculates that the total "notional" value of all derivatives outstanding in the world is a mind-boggling $415 trillion .

That's over eight times the GDP of the entire world economy … twenty times the total value of all U.S. stocks … and fifty times all the Treasury debts of the United States Government.

The fear: That any unexpected disruption in this $415-trillion market could throw the world's financial markets into turmoil … bankrupt hundreds of hedge funds … wipe out the profits of big-name financial institutions … sabotage the investments of pension funds … and scramble the portfolios of millions of average investors.




Danger #2
The Unbridled Growth

In 1998, the last time the derivatives market nearly blew up, there were "only" $80 trillion in derivatives outstanding worldwide, according to the BIS.

That was already huge.

But as I explained a moment ago, now the total derivatives outstanding has jumped to $415 trillion, or over FIVE times more!

And just from 2005 to 2006, it surged by a whopping 39.5%, about TEN times faster than the growth in the global economy.


Danger #3
Enormous Risks

If the risks were spread among thousands of institutions, each with plenty of capital to back up its bets, this derivatives balloon might not be such a threat.

But the U.S. Government's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that, in the United States …

Just FIVE banks control 97.1% of the derivatives in the entire U.S. banking system.

Worse, among these five banks, none — not ONE — has the capital to cover its net credit risk, the primary measure the OCC uses to evaluate the risks these banks are taking in their derivatives trading.


Back in 1998, at the time of the last debacle, JPMorgan Chase, the world's largest player in the derivatives market, had $3.80 in credit risk for each dollar of capital.

That was already over the top, in my view.

And now, the OCC reports that JPMorgan Chase has a whopping $7.99 in credit risk per dollar of capital, or more than double its 1998 risk level!

HSBC, which was barely a player in the derivatives market back in 1998, now has $5.65 in credit risk per dollar of capital!

Citibank: $2.03 per dollar of capital in 1998; $4.60 today.

Bank of America: 90 cents on the dollar in 1998; $2.88 today.

Wachovia: Just 18 cents on the dollar in 1998; $1.56 today.

This means that …

[thelefteyeguy]

Even though Wachovia has the least exposure to derivatives among the top five, it is still extremely vulnerable — with more at stake than its entire capital.
America's largest bank — Bank of America — is also embroiled up to its eyeballs, risking over FOUR times its capital.
And the single largest player in the derivatives market - JPMorgan Chase - is taking the most risk of all: EIGHT times its entire capital, according to the OCC's data.
Danger #4
Scant Oversight or Control

Based on data compiled — but no longer published — by the OCC, less than 9% of the derivatives held by U.S. banks are traded on regulated exchanges.

The remaining 91% are strictly one-on-one contracts, handled over the counter, outside the domain of regulated exchanges.

This mean that each party is ultimately responsible for monitoring the credit and trustworthiness of each counterparty. They're on their own … leading me to the conclusion that …

Even Some of the Biggest Winners Could Wind Up Among the Losers

Right now, everyone is worried about the big losers:

Hedge funds that poured too much money into bad mortgages …
Banks that financed the hedge funds, and …
Investors that own the bank shares.
And there's no question that many of these are in grave danger as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

But what most people don't seem to realize is that, in the tightly interconnected world of derivatives, even some of the biggest winners could wind up among the losers.

Let's say, for example, that you're running a mortgage company.

You've got a big stake in the subprime mortgage market. And you're getting hammered with one massive loss after another. So one morning, you wake up in a cold sweat and say:

"I can't take this any more! If this continues, it's going to wipe me out! I've got to buy some protection. I've got to place some bets on the opposite side!"

Like thousands of others in recent weeks, you rush to buy "credit default swaps" — in your case, special bets that are designed to go UP in value when your borrowers default. You figure it's good insurance.

Plus, as is the usual practice, in order to avoid putting up a lot of capital, you finance most of your new bets with short-term loans.

Finally, you figure you can sleep nights. If the mortgage market calms down, you anticipate that your regular operations will stabilize. Conversely, if the mortgage meltdown worsens, the profits likely on your new bets should help offset your losses. Either way, you're covered … or so you think.

Now … here comes the hidden nightmare: Long before you start cashing in your chips, you're shocked to learn that the other guy — the one on the losing side of the bet — has run out of capital! He's broke. And he won't pay you a single penny.

Bottom line: Even though you're on the winning side of the trade, you still lose. You lose on your regular mortgage operations. AND you lose on the new trade.

You run out of capital just like the others caught in the mortgage meltdown. And, just like the others, you default on your bank loans.

The crux of the problem: If you were trading on an established exchange, the other guy's default would be primarily the exchange's problem — not yours. It would be their responsibility to make sure the market participants have enough capital to back up their bets. It would be their job to go after anyone who doesn't meet his obligations.

But unfortunately, the exchange has very little to do with your transaction! Remember: As I stressed above, 91% of U.S. derivatives are strictly one-on-one contracts, handled over the counter, outside the domain of regulated exchanges.

In other words, it's between you and the other guy: If he pays up, fine. But if he stiffs you, tough luck!

Now do you see why there's so much concern in high places about the credit risk America's five biggest banks are taking?

Now do you see why central banks all over the world are dishing out such huge amounts of cash all of a sudden?

Their great fears:

A chain reaction of defaults that no government or exchange authority could control.
Huge losses at major international banks.
Massive convulsions in the world economy.
How to Protect Yourself
First, if you haven't done so already, get rid of your most vulnerable assets — investment real estate, mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, mortgage company stocks, bank stocks, brokerage firm stocks, and insurance company stocks.

But if you did not act on our earlier warnings, don't look back. Just focus on what you have to do now: SELL on rallies!

Second, take profits and raise cash, even on some of your best stocks.

This crisis is no longer limited to the investments we don't like. It's also bound to have an effect on areas we like, including some of our favorite foreign markets.

The global economic growth we've been telling you about is still strong. The fundamental forces pushing them forward are no less powerful. But that alone does not preclude sharp intermediate downturns.

So no matter what other investments you own — low-rated or high-rated, domestic or international — consider taking a chunk of your profits off the table.

Then stash most of the proceeds in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. Even if interest rates are low, even if the dollar is declining, short-term T-bills are still the ultimate place for safety and liquidity.

The most convenient vehicles: Treasury-only money market funds like American Century's Capital Preservation Fund , U.S. Global's U.S. Treasury Securities Cash Fund , or our affiliate's Weiss Treasury Only Money Market Fund .

Third, consider a stake in the strongest foreign currencies. Remember: The epicenter of the mortgage meltdown is in the United States. So the biggest negative impact is going to be on the dollar and dollar-denominated investments, as foreign currencies rise.

Fourth, for vulnerable investments that you may still be holding, buy hedges that can help protect you against losses. Just make sure they're traded on major exchanges — as are the specialized ETFs designed to go UP when the markets go DOWN.

For example, look at the long menu of inverse ETFs offered by ProFunds . Then pick the ones that most closely match the assets you want to protect.

Fifth, consult with a registered professional advisor. They're the only ones who can help you tailor your strategies to your individual needs, goals and tolerance for risk.

Sixth, attend my Thursday teleconference which I've called specifically to help in this emergency situation.

My topic is "The Spreading Credit Crunch: Protect Yourself and Profit."

And it's free.

But to participate, you must register by midnight on Wednesday!

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

By Martin Weiss

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com .

Money and Markets Archive

[stevethewheel]

Bought back in some more today to complement the buying I did a week ago. I can wait a long time for recovery.

[rfdrfd]

Is he saying sell ALL bank investments (stocks) ? Or just those ones that are most vulnerable?

[konfusion666]

Is he saying sell ALL bank investments (stocks) ? Or just those ones that are most vulnerable?

i think he's just an alarmist... take with a large grain of salt

[florch]

So much for espousing contrarianism...he seems to be encouraging the sell off in one way, and at the same time calling out bad policy. If you've read his book, you may be excused if you thought that this correction represented a buying opportunity...:confused:


Bloody and Bloodier
The subprime-lending crisis is worse than you think, and could crush financial and real-estate markets for years.
By James J. Cramer

You’re losing money right now. This very minute. You’re losing money if you own an apartment. You’re losing money if you own a country home. You’re losing money if you own a stock or bond mutual fund. You’re losing money if you have a pension plan. You’re probably losing money here or there, you’re probably losing money everywhere (except maybe from your savings account and wallet). But this is no Dr. Seuss story. It’s more of a John Steinbeck tale, and we are the victims, a new generation of Tom Joads, and it’s the damn bankermen who broke us. No, there won’t be a police officer to investigate, and the government, at least this federal government, won’t save us.


Our tale of woe starts not in New York but in flashy places like Las Vegas and South Beach and faraway onetime Okie haunts like Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ontario, California. In these towns, and dozens more like them, housing companies erected colossal communities of homes. Eager homebuyers and speculators fought each other for these properties, armed with cheap financing, courtesy of Alan Greenspan, who wanted to boost an economy reeling from 9/11 and create a legacy of homeownership for all, including those who could not document steady income or, for that matter, citizenship.


We think of him as Saint Alan now, but in a few years he will be known as the reckless Fed chairman who encouraged the creation and use of exotic mortgages that required you to put down very little money, odd creations like the “2 and 28,” an adjustable mortgage with low interest payments the first two years that explode into gargantuan fees for the next 28. Don’t have the money to pay for the 2 before the 28? Go “piggybacking”: Take out a home-equity loan against your new house to meet those minimal payments.


Where did the money come from? Banks lent it, mortgage brokers lent it, and even home builders themselves got into the act. The housing markets were so hot the lenders barely had time to check if their buyers were deadbeats, cheats, speculators, or actual honest-to-Betsy hardworking people who wanted nothing more than what Tom Joad wanted 70 years ago. Oh, and the buyers didn’t have time to check out the terms, either; the value of the houses was going up too fast. Gotta close now! Nor did the regulators tap the brakes—whoops, there were no regulators. If something went wrong, who cares? The buyers could always sell their ever-appreciating home to the next guy on the reservation list or the ten after him. The builders, brokers, and bankers then shipped these mortgages east to the big Wall Street firms, which bundled them together and merchandised them as high-yielding bonds often backed up by nothing more than the full faith and credit of, well, no one.


Over and over, Greenspan hailed these fabulous financial breakthroughs that gave everyone a chance at the American Dream (or multiple dreams, in the case of speculators who took down homes and flipped them). And why not? Don’t homes always increase in value? Won’t there always be willing buyers armed with ARMs?


Except that wasn’t how it went down. The same guy who prescribed the mortgage elixir for all Americans then laced it with seventeen straight interest-rate increases, increases that brought rates to levels so high that legions of people who bought a home with a teaser rate couldn’t afford the payments. Between 2004 and 2006, just as interest rates started spiking and homes kept being churned out in these saturated areas, 14 million families purchased houses, many taking advantage of teasers and piggybacks. Given that the average home went for about $250,000, that’s hundreds of billions in loans that cost a lot more per month than when they were taken. Now these people are stuck. They can’t refinance because the rates are too high, and they can’t sell their homes to repay their mortgage, either. In every area of this country—and in particular, in the once-hot markets like the ones I mentioned earlier—there are just too many other homes for sale and too many new homes still being pumped out.


What do the woes of these folks have to do with you? Can a housing fire sale in Phoenix or Fort Myers really affect your Hamptons beach house or your newly purchased Upper West Side classic six? Well, yes, and in even bigger ways than you might think. That’s because the people who ultimately bought the bonds backed by what now look to be billions in bogus mortgages are those who run most of the big pension-, hedge-, and stock-and-bond-market mutual funds in this country. These suckers bought such bonds because bonds backed by mortgage-payment streams paid a tiny bit more than United States Treasuries, a comparable low-risk, if low-return, vehicle, and were supposed to have very little or no risk themselves. Some managers, however, borrowed huge sums to buy tons of these mortgages to turbocharge their results. And the most aggressive managers bought billions in mortgages given to less creditworthy individuals, the so-called subprime loans you keep hearing about.


Even though these loans have been losing value for years, it wasn’t until June 2007 that any of this mattered. That’s because of what is known in the trade as the “marks,” the value of a stock or bond as it’s “marked” by a firm. You are getting poorer by the second because many of these mortgage bonds were priced way too high because nobody thought that large numbers of borrowers would ever walk away from their homes rather than pay the interest that backed the bonds. Such a disaster had happened only once, in the thirties, and that was before loans were federally secured. The buyers and sellers accounted for the bonds as if they were as reliable as cash, because as long as employment was robust—and it is—they thought they would be fine.

con't

[florch]

con't
But now all hell’s broken loose on Wall Street because of those mismarks. This spring, as many homeowners stopped paying, the mortgage bonds—for the first time—starting losing value. Hundreds of billions in bonds that were thought to be worth more or less the price they were sold at, it turns out, are worthless. That’s triggered a chain reaction: Brokers like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch that lent money to the firms that bought the bogus loans—most famously, Bear Stearns—basically foreclosed on those firms to get their cash back. But the firms, which are always running full tilt, didn’t have the money to pay up. Bear, at the direction of the now-fired former co-president Warren Spector, let one fund just go down the drain. But Spector thought the other was still worth a great deal, so he put up $1.3 billion to pay back what the fund owed to the lenders and take direct control of the mortgage bonds. Spector, maybe one of the best minds in the bond business, genuinely believed that these mortgage-backed bonds still had substantial value. If someone as savvy as Spector thought these bonds were still good when they were actually worthless, that tells you that thousands of other managers are simply dreaming if they think their portfolios are worth anything near what they claim they’re worth. In other words, we’re looking at the start, not the end, of the lending meltdown.


Now these funds, which were supposed to be brimming with cash—the “liquidity” you hear about all of the time—turn out to have not much at all, and there are virtually no buyers anywhere for these mortgage-backed bonds, because who knows if the mortgages that are in them are worth anything? We only know that each day they are worth less than the day before, because every week, thousands of borrowers are being foreclosed.


Here’s another layer: The panicked managers of these firms were supposed to be the buyers for all of the high-yielding corporate bonds being issued to pay for the private-equity deals of Cerberus, KKR, Blackstone, and other private-equity firms. They were supposed to lap up the paper for all of the leveraged deals that are in the hopper for underperforming companies like Tribune Corporation and Chrysler. The Goldmans and JPMorgans had already promised the money to the Blackstones and KKRs. They are on the hook—“hung,” to use the grisly vernacular—but they can’t sell the bonds to their usual pension-, hedge-, and mutual-fund clients because those clients don’t have anywhere near the money they thought they had and are facing redemptions from furious investors. Now, pretty much every large financial institution in the country is caught in a web it can’t get out of. Bogus mortgage paper is infecting the system, and no one has a cure.


Which brings us back to your money and why you’re losing it. Unless you keep your money in cash or Treasuries or CDs or the First National Bank of Sealy, there’s a pretty good chance that you’re in a fund or funds that are mismarked and worth less than they and you think. If you own a home, you’re in the financial crosshairs, too. It’s not just that the lending crisis is causing interest rates to rise, jacking up your monthly nut if you have an ARM. It’s that the value of your home is endangered because of the hit Wall Street—the industry, if not the stock market—is set to take.


In the past half-dozen years, the major brokerages in New York added hundreds of thousands of jobs in three areas: mortgage-bond sales and trading, private equity, and prime brokerage (the management of hedge funds’ brokerage accounts). Each has grown by leaps and bounds each year. Now all three are frozen. There are no mortgages to package and sell and no clients who want them. The private-equity deals are all hung. And the way I see it, the hedge-fund business is liable to be cut in half by the chain of mismarking and redemptions. I think that many of these firms have as many as 30 percent more people than they need right now in these departments, and all of them will be cashiered by the end of the year. The lists are being drawn up; the HR people notified. Not too close to the holidays, please! And for those who are left, sorry, no bonuses. The money was all eaten up by severances. Unlike other times on Wall Street, the jobs will dry up across the board, because so many firms have beefed up the same divisions. This time, get laid off at Bear, no walking across the street to Lehman. The departed will be cut off from billions in disposable income that fuel the New York economy.


What can thaw this nuclear winter? What can cause these markets to defrost fast enough to save the jobs, and home values, of the rich in New York, if not the newly poor and evicted in Rancho Cucamonga? Spooked by the news that major foreign banks are now getting hit by the lending crunch, investors took stocks down sharply last week, prompting Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to order up a quick injection of liquidity into the system on Friday. I think the Fed will also cut interest rates soon—certainly sooner than it otherwise would have. That said, this Fed has been famously inflation-wary, and it may be reluctant to loosen rates too much, lest it overheat the economy, especially since the Fed seems to believe that the nonfinancial economy, the part not connected with home building or lending, is thriving. Of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, only two, Citigroup and JPMorgan, are directly connected to this mess. If Bernanke’s right, and the rest of the economy is as solid as he seems to think it is, it’s possible the lending crisis could be contained to only those who work in and around the credit business. But that’s a big if. If the lending debacle keeps spreading, or the rest of the economy heads south, the Fed may find itself too far behind the curve to do much good.


Who else can unlock the jam? Maybe we get some help from overseas, a Chinese buyer of a major brokerage, perhaps? A Middle Eastern purchase of some of a big bank’s equity—Washington Mutual, maybe?—wouldn’t hurt. That’s what saved Citigroup in 1990. Perhaps Warren Buffett can come in and buy a Bear Stearns; hey, he saved Salomon in a different decade. What we need is some deep, untorn pockets to step up and buy some of the good paper that is being thrown away with the bad, so the trading desks can catch their breath and stabilize themselves. Giant losses would still happen, but perhaps not institution-threatening ones.


In other times, you might expect a president or a Treasury secretary to get involved, perhaps to pressure Fannie Mae, the organization set up in the thirties to issue emergency loans to alleviate just the kind of homeowning credit squeeze that we have right now, to lend a hand. But this administration seems to be either totally clueless or totally heartless, or both, and doesn’t want to goad Fannie Mae into helping. Maybe they hate that quasi-governmental institution set up by bleeding-heart Democrats to help struggling home buyers of a different, more liberal and compassionate, era. Or maybe they just think that anything short of an FDR-era Agricultural Adjustment Act for homes, where we bulldoze whole housing projects instead of cornfields to get price stability, just won’t work.


I fear that the pain and contractions in the housing and credit markets could cause as many as 7 million homeowners who bought houses in the past few years to flee or be tossed from their dwellings, even if the rest of the stock market thrives. It’s why I went off the reservation and screamed about this problem on television the other day (my latest unhinged rant). I see what could go wrong. I see how the forgotten man gets forgotten, and I feel helpless because I don’t see anyone doing a whole hell of a lot about it.


Thousands of miles from where the walls began tumbling down, New York, the town where the architects of card houses live, will soon feel the full force of the storm. So much of our economy depends on these financial builders and their minions who buy and sell the products that the pain may actually end up being felt worse here than in the epicenters of the problem. You just don’t know it or feel it yet. It’s all happened too fast, in just a few weeks of another sweltering summer, with the worst, much worse, yet to come. Which is why I bet that in the time it took for you to read this article, the Tom Joad effect just took another few bucks out of your pocket. Get ready, many more dollars will soon vanish before you discover you’ve been robbed.

[pitz]

One thing I've noticed Florch in my time as an investor -- the bond market is not transparent at all.

I can go to finance.yahoo.com, and look up what JPMorganChase is trading at 24/7, how many shares traded, and what the prices of options and futures are on the stock. If I want, I can daytrade JPM, I can re-invest dividends from JPM, etc. etc.

But with bonds, its different. They don't trade on transparent markets that are available through brokers to the general public. I can't find data on trading volumes. They can't be daytraded as the commissions are enormous. And re-investing coupons can't easily be done as you have to buy them in relatively large increments at high commissions.

Maybe one of the positive outcomes is that bonds and debt obligations will be exchange-listed, and exchange traded, just like stocks. No longer can some bank or fund manager come up with a fictitious value for their holdings, because actual valuations will have to be supported with actual bids in the marketplace.

Its just the next natural evolution of capitalism, and transparency in the debt markets will become even more important as boomers retire and look towards bonds as sources of income. The 'car dealership' model of buying and selling bonds is so out of date its almost laughable.

A further evolution of the same would be the concept of an "Exchange-Traded Deposit". Basically a way that banks can sell GICs and let their customers trade them/value them and/or gain liquidity for them. You go to the bank to buy a $5000 GIC, and you get 50 $100 units of an ETD in your bank/brokerage account which can be bought and sold in the market, pledged as collateral, etc. on margin, with all of the usual protections of the CDIC/FDIC. The bank could provide a minimum bid in the market, but so could other potential GIC buyers.

[florch]

At my age I've always considered paying off my mortgage as representative of my fixed income investment. But it educates me on the process (Thanks Mr. Cramer) and Pitz, maybe you'll be right. I hope so - you seem to see deeper into this than most.

Too bad it takes decades and a disaster to recognize the need for and implement changes.

In 4-5 years the mortgage will be paid with any continuance of my current fortunes. Maybe when I'm ready to buy bonds there will be a new system with the IB's, Barclay's and Vanguard's of the future raising the bar on affordability and transparency.

Re: Mr Cramer - I had hoped he might help quell the hysteria and encourage folks to buy on the dips. Maybe it doesn't make for dramatic TV and articles, but to me it just looks like he's skirting one issue to attract attention to another. You can't serve two masters.

[pitz]

In 4-5 years the mortgage will be paid with any continuance of my current fortunes. Maybe when I'm ready to buy bonds there will be a new system with the IB's, Barclay's and Vanguard's of the future raising the bar on affordability and transparency.


I've spoken with bankers about the idea of pushing the market for debt down to the average bank customer. Various excuses are offered, but basically, like a new car, a GIC loses a substantial amount of value the minute you walk out of the bank after buying it, and to the little old ladies who buy GICs, the loss of value would be shocking.

So little old ladies and unsophisticateds are led along with some fiction that their GIC is actually worth what they paid for it, and everyone's happy, right? Same deal with deferred sales charges (DSC) or back-end loads on mutual funds -- the minute you sign the contract, you have given away 5-10% of your investment up-front, but by the magic of fictitious mark-to-market accounting, the bank (or fund dealer) can send you a statement saying that your investments are worth their full value.


Re: Mr Cramer - I had hoped he might help quell the hysteria and encourage folks to buy on the dips. Maybe it doesn't make for dramatic TV and articles, but to me it just looks like he's skirting one issue to attract attention to another. You can't serve two masters.

He got his wish though. I kinda wish Bernanke had held firm instead of firing up the helicopters and doing some money drops.

[Arkaine]

This sucks. I wanted one more week of losses then I was going to buy.

Well, I'll see around 6 how expensive the funds I wanted have got.

[florch]

He got his wish though. I kinda wish Bernanke had held firm instead of firing up the helicopters and doing some money drops.

I guess he's consistent! :D

Call me chicken, or naive, but I was kinda happy to see some added liquidity before every margin account gets called or stop loss gets hit...

[hagbard]

Weekend's over, more fun ahead.

[konfusion666]

awesome rally this morning... i've already made a pretty penny on that "subprime/ABCP meltdown fiasco"....

[stevethewheel]

awesome rally this morning... i've already made a pretty penny on that "subprime/ABCP meltdown fiasco"....

Yeah me too but I'm not counting my chickens yet. Suspect that there will be another sell-off as folks make a quick buck on the bounce. What I've bought I intend to hold for 6-12 months anyway.

[retroman80s]

Yup, it looks like stevethewheel prediction was right today..

[retroman80s]

red red red

[stevethewheel]

red red red

Talk to me yesterday ;)

[thelefteyeguy]

my portfolio is starting to pay off...switched to gold about 2 months ago

[Spazmogen]

Its about to take another dive this week:READ (http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/09/markets/stocks_lookahead.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes)

if you can't stand to watch your investmens drop, don't look at them this week.

[HoTiCE_]

Asian Markets are all dropping as we speak

[recordman]

Shanghai index up 1.41%. It has been up a lot lately.

Asian Markets are all dropping as we speak

[brunes]

Its about to take another dive this week:READ (http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/09/markets/stocks_lookahead.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes)

if you can't stand to watch your investmens drop, don't look at them this week.

I think this is all over-hype. personally I expect strong numbers in the last quarter to erase any losses in Sept.

[stevethewheel]

Its about to take another dive this week:READ (http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/09/markets/stocks_lookahead.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes)

if you can't stand to watch your investmens drop, don't look at them this week.

If you looked last week then you should look this week.

Hello 14,000 it's good to see you again.

So that's up 1000 points (7% or more) in about 30 days. Not a bad return if you jumped in at the low (http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5490035&postcount=259).

Given that quick gain I may not hold for 6-12 months as originally planned. Balancing greed and safety drives me nuts.

Lots more bouncing around to come as smarter minds than mine pounce on the gain and sell over the next few days. I hope an equal number of average joes think this is some kind of new trend and hop on the train.

[brunes]

If you looked last week then you should look this week.

Hello 14,000 it's good to see you again.

So that's up 1000 points (7% or more) in about 30 days. Not a bad return if you jumped in at the low (http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5490035&postcount=259).

Given that quick gain I may not hold for 6-12 months as originally planned. Balancing greed and safety drives me nuts.

Lots more bouncing around to come as smarter minds than mine pounce on the gain and sell over the next few days. I hope an equal number of average joes think this is some kind of new trend and hop on the train.

The "equity train" will likely continue until the fed raises rates again next quarter. Meanwhile the US dollar will dip below ours.

[Spazmogen]

I've seen two reports (Yahoo & CNN) that expect further drops (Oct & Dec) this year. That should send stocks even higher if they are right.

I agree, 14,000 is nice to see again. I'd like to see the DOW @ 14,000 too.

[Thalo]

Dow at 14,000 is worth no more to us now (at near parity) than 13,300 at 95 cents to the dollar or 12,600 at 90 cents to the dollar.

[advantage21]

Asian Markets are on fire right now. It's going to be interesting tomorrow.

[retroman80s]

Dollar hitting parity today. Gold is almost at $750. How much longer can this continue?

[stevethewheel]

Yesterday I sold everything I bought at the low on Aug 17.

Up 7% in 7 weeks.

I thought I might have to hold it for a year, but since I can get it out now I am, so I can stop thinking about it.

[pitz]

Dollar hitting parity today. Gold is almost at $750. How much longer can this continue?

Inflation numbers in Canada were down, way down. Probably down enough that any BoC rate hikes are now permanently on hold, and cuts could be in the offing soon.

[TomNew]

Inflation numbers in Canada were down, way down. Probably down enough that any BoC rate hikes are now permanently on hold, and cuts could be in the offing soon.

I take it you are retracting your prediction of a rate hike from another thread.

[pitz]

I take it you are retracting your prediction of a rate hike from another thread.

No. Not at all. Bank of Canada rate cuts, and bank rate cuts are two entirely seperate issues.

[pitz]

I take it you are retracting your prediction of a rate hike from another thread.

No. Not at all. Bank of Canada rate cuts, and bank rate cuts are two entirely seperate issues.

Banks are still paying >5% on commercial paper, and LIBOR spiked fairly significantly today.

[Thalo]

No. Not at all. Bank of Canada rate cuts, and bank rate cuts are two entirely seperate issues.

Banks are still paying >5% on commercial paper, and LIBOR spiked fairly significantly today.

They're making some progress to normalcy on CP. Rates dropped at least a quarter percent on bank sponsored ABCP this week. Think it might have to do with the BoC cash infusion.

[Blunt]

Does anyone have predictions for October?

Is the subprime problem gonna give a second swift kick to the markets? October-witching month??

[thelefteyeguy]

...im kinda nervous with October too.

THinking of selling most holdings this week...and then reload in case it drops

[stevethewheel]

Does anyone have predictions for October?

Is the subprime problem gonna give a second swift kick to the markets? October-witching month??

I wish I could predict that way. I only know when I see a 'sure thing'. I'm a opportunist.

I can say this. If the market gets a second swift kick because of the subprime problem, I'll be jumping back in with both feet to kick right back. Maybe this time I'll actually buy bank stocks instead of mutual funds...hope I can time it just right again.

Edit - I see lefteyeguy was posting while I wrote this. Sounds like we're on the same page (except I already sold to reload)

[Bazooka Joe]

Does anyone have predictions for October?

Is the subprime problem gonna give a second swift kick to the markets? October-witching month??

This year I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October. And I got a feeling they're gonna peak right around January. Then, Bang! That's when I'll cash in.

[thelefteyeguy]

This year I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October. And I got a feeling they're gonna peak right around January. Then, Bang! That's when I'll cash in.

mmmm....pumpkin pies...:D

[Thalo]

Historically you probably would have done good to take all your money out of the market in the beginning of October and invest in pumpkins (and of course sell them before halloween)

[Aj23]

I wish I could predict that way. I only know when I see a 'sure thing'. I'm a opportunist.

I can say this. If the market gets a second swift kick because of the subprime problem, I'll be jumping back in with both feet to kick right back. Maybe this time I'll actually buy bank stocks instead of mutual funds...hope I can time it just right again.

Edit - I see lefteyeguy was posting while I wrote this. Sounds like we're on the same page (except I already sold to reload)

so are you saying that it is better to wait till later in october to buy tsx stocks? i was going to put money into the index fund tomorrow but shoud i wait a little longer?

[stevethewheel]

so are you saying that it is better to wait till later in october to buy tsx stocks? i was going to put money into the index fund tomorrow but shoud i wait a little longer?

I'm not giving advice, just saying what I would do.

The post of mine you quoted was what I would do if there was another sudden drop this month linked to fallout from the sub-prime (or oversupply of US housing etc). I am not trying to predict if that drop will happen or not, only saying that if it does happen, I will invest in TSX-based funds or individual stocks. Then I would pull that money out again as soon as I saw enough of a pickup. Last time I only held about 7 weeks and got out with my 7%.

But this is me playing a bit of a risky game for short term gain. I also have long term investing and for that I don't worry about whether it is tomorrow or later in the month because 10 years from now it won't have made a visible difference.

[krazy]

Another Bloodbath on the TSX... Hope there is a rally later in the afternoon

[MooseTits]

-337.37. Wow!

[konfusion666]

it's still at >14000. it closed at 12850 on August 16th, which is when i bought a $hitload of TSX index tracking funds. so i'm still "up", and not really concerned about today's decline (more of a "badly needed correction", really...)

call me an opportunist, but i'm hoping it goes down a bit more (13500 would be nice) so i can stock up at the resultant fire sale ;)

[pitz]

Oil keeps going up (though not as much in CAD$ as USD$), same deal with gold and copper. The Canadian banks probably will have substantially slower earnings growth, but they're in good shape. And thanks to RIMM, even high-tech has been pulling its weight.

If you plot the Australia index, and the Canadian TSX index, you'll see that over the past 5 years they've been carbon copies, but in the past 2 months, they've diverged by approximately 10%.

If history is any indication, this divergence eventually turns into convergence, which means that there could easily be a 10-12% upside in the TSX right around the corner, solildly blasting past the 15k mark.

[Jobu]

Oil keeps going up (though not as much in CAD$ as USD$), same deal with gold and copper. The Canadian banks probably will have substantially slower earnings growth, but they're in good shape. And thanks to RIMM, even high-tech has been pulling its weight.

If you plot the Australia index, and the Canadian TSX index, you'll see that over the past 5 years they've been carbon copies, but in the past 2 months, they've diverged by approximately 10%.

If history is any indication, this divergence eventually turns into convergence, which means that there could easily be a 10-12% upside in the TSX right around the corner, solildly blasting past the 15k mark.

While I agree that we're headed for 15,000, how exactly does the Australian index have anything to do with the Canadian index? Where exactly is the correlation?

That's like saying that every time there's been a full moon, the TSX has skyrocketed, except for the last two times. So the next time there's a full moon, we should expect a plus day.

[pitz]

While I agree that we're headed for 15,000, how exactly does the Australian index have anything to do with the Canadian index? Where exactly is the correlation?


Bring up the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year charts, plotting EWA (Australian Index ETF in USD$) versus EWC (Canadian Index ETF in USD$). They are highly correlated and only really have diverged as of the past couple months.

In the past, this divergence has been corrected by a convergence.

In fact, I'd suggest Canada should be doing better than Australia because of our large oil exports (Australia is not an exporter of oil), and the relative weakness of natural gas.

November is *always* a good month for the TSX. I've been told by brokers that a lot of investors used to have Canada Savings Bonds, and since those mature in November, a cycle has developed where people review their portfolios and make decisions in that month. Balanced mutual funds with equity exposure have taken a lot of market share away from CSB's, GICs, and other products, so that tends to support upside in the TSX.

edit: All those little old ladies turning in their Alcan shares next week for cash could drive the TSX index up nicely. article (http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1822004620071019?rpc=44). Alcan is a significant component of the TSX indicies, and the cash will have to be redeployed elsewhere. Adding $40 billion in cash to the Canadian market is enormous. Likewise, the same will happen with BCE soon.

[batman321123]

I'm all cash right now, hope the thing tanks a bit more. :razz:

[Thalo]

I went on a $12,000 spending spree today. :razz:

[sweedy]

I went on a $12,000 spending spree today. :razz:

Did you buy NA and BMO? The yield of NA topped 4.7% for a while.

[Thalo]

Nah, I mostly bought some big green at $69.

[advantage21]

Nah, I mostly bought some big green at $69.

Insider trading? :D

[Thalo]

Nope, quarterly results won't be on the internal websites until early next month. :razz:

[retroman80s]

It looks like another rocky day on the market. :confused:

[konfusion666]

yeah, it sucks. what happened to the 15k target on GSPTSE?

[Bullseye]

November is *always* a good month for the TSX. I've been told by brokers that a lot of investors used to have Canada Savings Bonds, and since those mature in November, a cycle has developed where people review their portfolios and make decisions in that month. Balanced mutual funds with equity exposure have taken a lot of market share away from CSB's, GICs, and other products, so that tends to support upside in the TSX.

Oops. ;)

[konfusion666]

Oops. ;)

he still has 7 business days to prove you wrong ;)

[stevethewheel]

I bought in again on Nov. 15th. If it is down further tomorrow I'll buy in some more (provided I get a break from blasted office meetings). And for the first time in a long time, I'll buy US equities too.

[Blunt]

ME too.
I've dipped my big toe in again. And by next week, I should be in waist high.

I think it's a good time to pick up some good bank stocks and to load up some on RRSPs.

[pitz]

Oops. ;)

Yeah...this year is an exception, unfortunately :(.

Don't know why oil and gas firms aren't valued much higher; oil is setting new records in CAD$ terms in the past few days, yet the YTD gains on the TSX O&G sector is approximately 2%.

[King James]

I know. Could someone explain to me why the O&G companies are down today as well when cruel oil is hitting record high? It really hurts when you know the stock went down but the price at the pump keeps going up.

[pitz]

cruel oil

I know thats a typo, but...:) :)

[15-20_God]

in times of panic, leverage, and volatility, traditional measures of valuation go out the window. its a sell first, figure it out later strategy.

[Thalo]

in times of panic, leverage, and volatility, traditional measures of valuation go out the window. its a sell first, figure it out later strategy.

It's times like that when I'm buying.

[netriones]

Greed and fear combine with media influences create over priced stocks and under priced stocks. When it returns to normal, it's the time when clear-headed investors win.

[bcbgboy13]

I know. Could someone explain to me why the O&G companies are down today as well when cruel oil is hitting record high? It really hurts when you know the stock went down but the price at the pump keeps going up.

Well one of the reasons maybe this:

in times of panic, leverage, and volatility, traditional measures of valuation go out the window. its a sell first, figure it out later strategy.

and then you had the latest "shorts report covering Nov. 1 to Nov.15" released the day before.
Usually when you approach the date of the new shorts report the shorters will start to cover (buy) and won’t be selling (shorting) that much if at all, hence you have more buyers than sellers and the stocks price goes up.
Once the new short report gets released and in absence of big company news the shorters start selling (shorting) again and suddenly they are no more buyers willing to pay these prices - so you have the pullbacks.

Rinse and repeat - works 100% for the TSX

[retroman80s]

Bummer, market fell apart when the fed announced quarter point rate cut today..

[AllWheelDrift]

Yeah, I didn't see this coming. I was pretty sure that they'd only do the quarter point cut but it seems the market was expecting more.

[retroman80s]

What's strange is that our dollar also dropped almost a penny, usually when the Fed cuts rates our dollar tend to go up.

What do you think?

[AllWheelDrift]

What's strange is that our dollar also dropped almost a penny, usually when the Fed cuts rates our dollar tend to go up.

What do you think?
Exactly the same thing happened in the FX market. They also had already priced in a cut of more than a quarter point and were disappointed.

[elty]

The market is based on expectation that the Fed will cut it by 0.5%.

[retroman80s]

down 290 points!!! :( Looks like people is clean out their crappy stocks out of their portfolios.

[konfusion666]

i thought it was "normal" to sell in December. for tax purposes.

[funkylist]

Market is -323 in the RED. what is going on today?

[sucka]

I read somewhere that the 13,400 was the threshold point, if it breaks beyond this barrier then we might see a freefall towards 10,500 by the end of the year. This might get interesting.....

[Bullseye]

I'm always glad to see this old thread bumped up whenever the market makes a big move, it's fun to read back on peoples comments and predictions.

[Bazooka Joe]

Market is -323 in the RED. what is going on today?

CitiGroup lost almost $10 Billion

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/01/15/citigroup.html

I read somewhere that the 13,400 was the threshold point, if it breaks beyond this barrier then we might see a freefall towards 10,500 by the end of the year. This might get interesting.....

I don't think this is likely - too many people with disposible income atm. Once prices drop, you see lots of people out bargain shopping. Freefall likely won't happen until people have less free cash around.

[konfusion666]

CitiGroup lost almost $10 Billion

plus CIBC's news releases "weighed in" too. They've shed a lot since their 2007 high. :-0

[questrader]

I read somewhere that the 13,400 was the threshold point, if it breaks beyond this barrier then we might see a freefall towards 10,500 by the end of the year. This might get interesting.....

The market did that today! So what? Are we gonna start seeing the slide now? OMG, no wonder why I'm still holding onto last Thursday's buy, even though things went sour today and I'm in negative territory... and will continue to anticipate holding it for a few more days, until the loss gets really large and the pain sets in and becomes real...

[BadDrafter]

I just want the markets to completely collapse. Not down enough for my liking.

[zoober]

I just want the markets to completely collapse. Not down enough for my liking.

Yeah, I hope to support my parents when they retire too.... :rolleyes:

[elty]

With all the negative news the market is only down 10% from its peak.

Which means either the market condition is not all that bad, or we still have lots of room to drop. I would bet on the latter.

[questrader]

With all the negative news the market is only down 10% from its peak.

Which means either the market condition is not all that bad, or we still have lots of room to drop. I would bet on the latter.

You're absolutely right, the market will drop. But now is not the ripe time, as the seller supply exhausted itself out last week. The market still needs a few more days to build a new seller supply for the next roller coaster ride...

[BadDrafter]

Yeah, I hope to support my parents when they retire too.... :rolleyes:

I fail to see how this has anything to do with me. I don't have any family, just me.

To bad about your parents though.

Fall, fall, fall dammit!

[smihaila]

I will enjoy saying the same thing as you, even when yourself will be in need for money and sell your stock :)

[neverdoanything]

Is it wrong that I'm excited?

I'm a beginner investor with a time horizon of atleast 15 years. I've been dollar cost averaging for the past 2 years, so I've had a good buffer. I almost lost that buffer today of course... but I'm thinking I may have started to invest at the right time.

[questrader]

Is it wrong that I'm excited?

I'm a beginner investor with a time horizon of atleast 15 years. I've been dollar cost averaging for the past 2 years, so I've had a good buffer. I almost lost that buffer today of course... but I'm thinking I may have started to invest at the right time.

For your type of investment, the right time is always "do it as soon as possible, while you're still young".

But remember, the market always sucks during the first year of a new Presidency (see works by Larry Williams), so expect a few more roller coaster rides...

[rupert]

We are on the verge of the biggest credit market collaspe in history. I don't think it is a good time to 'invest' just yet :) Unless you are a bear.

[Bazooka Joe]

We are on the verge of the biggest credit market collaspe in history. I don't think it is a good time to 'invest' just yet :) Unless you are a bear.

All indicators show either a steady or reduced interest rate - which should benefit the bond market. What makes you think that the bond market will collapse?

[gomyone]

All indicators show either a steady or reduced interest rate - which should benefit the bond market. What makes you think that the bond market will collapse?

...lower yields in the bond market reflect a flight to safety - the previous poster talked about constrained credit - interrelated with the bond market but a different thing. And he's right - the credit market is on the verge of a pretty big collapse. Banks etc are parking their money in safe investments and are not willing to lend unless they get a higher interest rate - so spreads are very wide and constraining credit growth. Its definitely a crisis of confidence and good wreak havoc on the economy. I think things will be pretty ugly for the next few quarters....

[questrader]

For technical reasons, one being the selling exhaustion seen last week, the market is not ready for a hard fall yet. That will come in 5-8 tradings days...

[stmi]

TSX under 13000

and emerging markets are dropping like crazy !

lots of fun !

[elty]

I fail to see how this has anything to do with me. I don't have any family, just me.

To bad about your parents though.

Fall, fall, fall dammit!

I hope the guy living next to you lose all of his money and wife and child to slave market in the stock market, and blow up his house which also happen to blow up yours.

Hey, that has nothing to do with me. Too bad about your neighbor, though.

[elty]

You're absolutely right, the market will drop. But now is not the ripe time, as the seller supply exhausted itself out last week. The market still needs a few more days to build a new seller supply for the next roller coaster ride...

Oh you are right, we are not going to see a big overnight drop for the whole week. We need a rebound or 2 before the market can dive again.

[WontonTiger]

I hope the guy living next to you lose all of his money and wife and child to slave market in the stock market, and blow up his house which also happen to blow up yours.

Hey, that has nothing to do with me. Too bad about your neighbor, though.

That's what he gets for gambling all his money away on stocks.

I can't feel too bad for people considering that this is not a guaranteed source of income. People are too confident in the market sometimes (like investing ALL OF YOUR RETIREMENT savings into stocks).

I feel bad for you bro, however you have to take responsibility, and not blame others.

IF you CAN'T take the HEAT, then GET OUT of the KITCHEN!

[elty]

That's what he gets for gambling all his money away on stocks.

I can't feel too bad for people considering that this is not a guaranteed source of income. People are too confident in the market sometimes (like investing ALL OF YOUR RETIREMENT savings into stocks).

I feel bad for you bro, however you have to take responsibility, and not blame others.

IF you CAN'T take the HEAT, then GET OUT of the KITCHEN!

I don't understand your point either. Who have said investing the stock market will be guaranteed?

Can I say if you can't read, then get out of the forum?

[Bullseye]

I can't feel too bad for people considering that this is not a guaranteed source of income. People are too confident in the market sometimes (like investing ALL OF YOUR RETIREMENT savings into stocks).

Like all the old people interviewed by media after the income trust blow up who had all, or nearly all, of their savings in trusts. You lose your right to complain when you do something so foolish, as far as I'm concerned.

[dark169]

Is it wrong that I'm excited?

I'm a beginner investor with a time horizon of atleast 15 years. I've been dollar cost averaging for the past 2 years, so I've had a good buffer. I almost lost that buffer today of course... but I'm thinking I may have started to invest at the right time.

get greedy when others are scared, be scared when others are greedy :twisted:

[konfusion666]

any thoughts on this article?

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080116.wrprime/BNStory/Business/home

this is the key line from the article IMO:

Without a matching cut from the banks, a change in the central bank's key interest rate would have little effect on economic activity, and borrowers wouldn't get lower rates on mortgages and loans.

[WontonTiger]

I don't understand your point either. Who have said investing the stock market will be guaranteed?

Can I say if you can't read, then get out of the forum?

I can read at a Grade 8 level (or so my mom told me) :cheesygri :rolleyes:

My point is that you seem upset. You lashed out at a previous comment, even though his comment was not directed at you.

You have more potential for the big bucks than I do (due to your money in the market). I have no investments at the moment, however I am waiting for a tumble, then I will try my LUCK (keyword being luck/risk).

I was trying to say that if you really worried about your parents, you would advise them to diversify, and not be so worried about them going broke if the market falls.

I can feel your tension through the computer...

So IF YOU can't read, then please avoid commenting.

[Bazooka Joe]

I just want the markets to completely collapse. Not down enough for my liking.

I fail to see how this has anything to do with me. I don't have any family, just me.

To bad about your parents though.

Fall, fall, fall dammit!

I can read at a Grade 8 level (or so my mom told me) :cheesygri :rolleyes:

My point is that you seem upset. You lashed out at a previous comment, even though his comment was not directed at you.

You have more potential for the big bucks than I do (due to your money in the market). I have no investments at the moment, however I am waiting for a tumble, then I will try my LUCK (keyword being luck/risk).

I was trying to say that if you really worried about your parents, you would advise them to diversify, and not be so worried about them going broke if the market falls.

I can feel your tension through the computer...

So IF YOU can't read, then please avoid commenting.

If you re-read the above quotes, you might notice that they appear designed to get a negative reaction (aka trolling). Once that's noticed, it's hardly a surprise that a troll would invoke a reaction. The interesting part is that you're somehow upset that someone got upset.

Going on a financial forum and saying "I just want the markets to completely collapse." would be like going on the housing forum and saying you want all the houses to burn down. People here are financial enthusiasts and will take it personally. They have money and time put into this.

[BadDrafter]

Going on a financial forum and saying "I just want the markets to completely collapse." would be like going on the housing forum and saying you want all the houses to burn down. People here are financial enthusiasts and will take it personally. They have money and time put into this.

Yes, but you can't buy a burnt house. You sure can buy a stock after it has been corrected to a fraction of it's (Real) worth.

That's a red flag deal if I ever saw one.

In the last major crisis (September 11), my brother made about $40,000 on a $5000 margin investment on stocks that went down for no reason what soever.
Naturally as the panic waves dissipated the stocks returned to their natural equilibrium.

I hope one day to beat him as I am very jealous.

Short selling stocks is another way you can benefit from a collapsing market.

I frequent stockhouse.ca and post there, though not as often as here.

There's one saying that I live by with investments:

“When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!”

Makes sense to me. This is a good reason to have tens of thousands of dollars in savings accounts, for moments such as this.

[questrader]

Oh you are right, we are not going to see a big overnight drop for the whole week. We need a rebound or 2 before the market can dive again.

* Cough *, why has the DJIA stayed above water and the TSX is retracing to neutral territory?

[Bazooka Joe]

Yes, but you can't buy a burnt house. You sure can buy a stock after it has been corrected to a fraction of it's (Real) worth.

That's a red flag deal if I ever saw one.

In the last major crisis (September 11), my brother made about $40,000 on a $5000 margin investment on stocks that went down for no reason what soever.
Naturally as the panic waves dissipated the stocks returned to their natural equilibrium.

I hope one day to beat him as I am very jealous.

Short selling stocks is another way you can benefit from a collapsing market.

I frequent stockhouse.ca and post there, though not as often as here.

There's one saying that I live by with investments:

“When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!”

Makes sense to me. This is a good reason to have tens of thousands of dollars in savings accounts, for moments such as this.

Sorry, my bad. To me it looked like you were just hoping for general misery, not to make money off of general misery :D

Your idea is totally in the spirit of RFD, but the way it was phrased it seemed you were just cheering for people to lose and provoking them while they did so.

[dark169]

Going on a financial forum and saying "I just want the markets to completely collapse." would be like going on the housing forum and saying you want all the houses to burn down. People here are financial enthusiasts and will take it personally. They have money and time put into this.

Of course the wise home owner would have insurance... If you have your time and money into something that has an obvious down side and don't have backup plants whose fault is that?

Also if I was in the construction industry my views on massive home fires would be much different then the insurance industries.

[sparkplug]

* Cough *, why has the DJIA stayed above water and the TSX is retracing to neutral territory?

The TSX index is a lot more heavily weighted with resource stocks than the Dow. It's the resource and financial stocks that are retreating right now. Since RRSP season is here and people are going to invest in equity anyway, you could say it's a buying opportunity at a discount.

[questrader]

The TSX index is a lot more heavily weighted with resource stocks than the Dow. It's the resource and financial stocks that are retreating right now. Since RRSP season is here and people are going to invest in equity anyway, you could say it's a buying opportunity at a discount.

Oh wow, so ur taking back what you wrote earlier, since the Asian markets were up overnight, and the TSX shot up close to 2% at 10AM... But I'm telling you, whatever is keeping the market buoying right now is "fake"... It will collapse, eventually!

[Shaf]

I'm very confused at the moment with the stocks i have. I bought most CDN banks in mid Dec and they have all gone down about 10% since then. Should i cut my losses now and buy again when they start climbing? I'm losing money every day :(

[Bullseye]

I'm very confused at the moment with the stocks i have. I bought most CDN banks in mid Dec and they have all gone down about 10% since then. Should i cut my losses now and buy again when they start climbing? I'm losing money every day :(

I think you should revisit your risk tolerance levels and your corresponding asset allocation, assuming you bought the stocks for a long term hold. If you're ready to panic sell already, I'm guessing you took on more risk than you can stomach.

Leave the market timing guesses to the day traders, and keep in mind that the vast majority of day traders don't make any money long term, and don't last long at it.

[codemonkey]

I think you should revisit your risk tolerance levels and your corresponding asset allocation, assuming you bought the stocks for a long term hold. If you're ready to panic sell already, I'm guessing you took on more risk than you can stomach.

Leave the market timing guesses to the day traders, and keep in mind that the vast majority of day traders don't make any money long term, and don't last long at it.

great advice particularly the bit about day traders.

if one can't tolerate a 10% loss, then one shouldn't be in the stock market.

[brunes]

great advice particularly the bit about day traders.

if one can't tolerate a 10% loss, then one shouldn't be in the stock market.

I can tolerate a 10% loss... its the 30% overall loss since Aug. that has me upset.

However I am not one to sell while down. To me the whole CDN market is insanely oversold. The problem with the CDN market is everyone today still reacts to US news like it impacts us the same way it did 10-20 years ago... it doesn't. It still impacts us heavily but not to the same extent.

We will have an upwards correction sooner or later when CDN fundamentals outweigh market panic based on US news.

[gomyone]

I can tolerate a 10% loss... its the 30% overall loss since Aug. that has me upset.

However I am not one to sell while down. To me the whole CDN market is insanely oversold. The problem with the CDN market is everyone today still reacts to US news like it impacts us the same way it did 10-20 years ago... it doesn't. It still impacts us heavily but not to the same extent.

We will have an upwards correction sooner or later when CDN fundamentals outweigh market panic based on US news.

..I'm just not a believer in your "decoupling" story. Whatever happens to the US will for sure have an impact on us up here. The only real insulation the Canadian economy has are high commodity prices - but if the US economy continues to turn, those prices will continue to unwind which they are already doing. Domestic demand in the rest of the world is not nearly strong enough to compensate for US demand. Commodity prices had remained high this long mostly because of speculation (which contributed to the decoupling story). Now that weakness, which was once only isolated only to the US housing sector is spreading, the rest of the world will not be as fortunate!

[codemonkey]

I can tolerate a 10% loss... its the 30% overall loss since Aug. that has me upset.

However I am not one to sell while down. To me the whole CDN market is insanely oversold. The problem with the CDN market is everyone today still reacts to US news like it impacts us the same way it did 10-20 years ago... it doesn't. It still impacts us heavily but not to the same extent.

We will have an upwards correction sooner or later when CDN fundamentals outweigh market panic based on US news.

well there are a couple of things that come to mind:

is the 30% a permanent impairment of capital or is it just a case of the market overreacting temporarily and punishing good business along with the bad businesses who deserve to be punished? if you don't think the underlying earning power and intrinsic value of the businesses you own have changed, then there is nothing to worry about. eventually the market will come back up and recognize good businesses and good value.

it's like Ben Graham said in the short term, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it's a weighing machine.

[brunes]

..I'm just not a believer in your "decoupling" story. Whatever happens to the US will for sure have an impact on us up here. The only real insulation the Canadian economy has are high commodity prices - but if the US economy continues to turn, those prices will continue to unwind which they are already doing. Domestic demand in the rest of the world is not nearly strong enough to compensate for US demand. Commodity prices had remained high this long mostly because of speculation (which contributed to the decoupling story). Now that weakness, which was once only isolated only to the US housing sector is spreading, the rest of the world will not be as fortunate!

The decoupling is more due to the fact that China and India buy more of our commodities than ever before than the fact that commodity prices have risen. The US is still our biggest market but the share is shrinking. Also the US banking crisis should not be affecting the Canadian sector like it is because most Canadian banks were not very heavily leveraged in US subprime loans (except for National of course). In fact it even opened up lost of opportunity for Canadian banks, look at the TD acquisition of Commerce for example.

[ibanker]

i think alot of people here have no idea what short selling is. because if they did it wouldnt matter if markets go up or down. you can gain both ways.

[gomyone]

The decoupling is more due to the fact that China and India buy more of our commodities than ever before than the fact that commodity prices have risen. The US is still our biggest market but the share is shrinking. Also the US banking crisis should not be affecting the Canadian sector like it is because most Canadian banks were not very heavily leveraged in US subprime loans (except for National of course). In fact it even opened up lost of opportunity for Canadian banks, look at the TD acquisition of Commerce for example.

China and India are buying more of these commodities than ever before but not for their own internal consumption. Much of what they make (especially China) is exported to the US - hence their massive surplus with the US.

IMHO there are three main reasons why commodity prices held up so forcely for the last while: 1) China's gov't subsidizes most commodities including oil so high prices are not a deterrent for production 2) rampant speculation among hedge funds and profit seekers has kept prices up 3) past weakness in the US economy was isolated to the housing sector, while demand in the rest of the economy "had" been strong. Now that things are changing particularly #3 and #2 - I'm sure most commodity prices are going to come off and we have already seen some of this impact on the TSX. Since Canada is global price taker - it just gets sideswiped no matter how good our fundamentals.

As for our banks being in good condition - yes most are very well capitalized and not as exposed to the subprime stuff as their US counterparts - so I do think that theres a good buying opportunity out there right now for "some" of them. But capital markets are integrated and if confidence of underlying balance sheets is lacking currently in this market and interbanking rates stay high, even our banks as market participants are going to feel the heat. What's is lurking beneath the surface of the investments banks have made is the major concern - no one knows for certain - hence the worries....

[Bullseye]

I can tolerate a 10% loss... its the 30% overall loss since Aug. that has me upset.

However I am not one to sell while down. To me the whole CDN market is insanely oversold. The problem with the CDN market is everyone today still reacts to US news like it impacts us the same way it did 10-20 years ago... it doesn't. It still impacts us heavily but not to the same extent.

We will have an upwards correction sooner or later when CDN fundamentals outweigh market panic based on US news.

Where is this 30% loss? The TSX peaked in July at 14,625, so it's down a little over 10% since then. That peak was also just a short spike, if you take that out, we're still under a 10% loss.

[konfusion666]

not to be anal, but we're actually down about 12% right now :o

doesn't seem like "a lot", but these are late-2006 levels, no?

[Shaf]

Where is this 30% loss? The TSX peaked in July at 14,625, so it's down a little over 10% since then. That peak was also just a short spike, if you take that out, we're still under a 10% loss.

You're looking at the index as an average. What about those with individual stocks that have gone down more than 30%? You can't compare an index / average to individual stock returns...

[AllWheelDrift]

i think alot of people here have no idea what short selling is. because if they did it wouldnt matter if markets go up or down. you can gain both ways.
See one of the previous comments about day traders. I don't think a long-term investor should ever take a short position and short positions have substantially higher risks.

[AllWheelDrift]

You're looking at the index as an average. What about those with individual stocks that have gone down more than 30%? You can't compare an index / average to individual stock returns...
People should have diversified portfolios and they shouldn't be looking at their individual stocks but their over all portfolio. Hopefully overall they aren't doing much worse than the average.

[stevethewheel]

I can't resist any longer. Moved a bunch of money from safe investments to equities. Maybe it will go lower...but I'm seeing too much opportunity over the next 12-20 months.

[Bullseye]

You're looking at the index as an average. What about those with individual stocks that have gone down more than 30%? You can't compare an index / average to individual stock returns...

So if you can't handle much volatlity, why buy individual stocks? Buying the entire index is less risky. The basis of buying individual stocks is that you feel confident that you can beat the index average, and also that you are willing to accept a higher degree of risk to do so.

[notanexpert]

I can't resist any longer. Moved a bunch of money from safe investments to equities. Maybe it will go lower...but I'm seeing too much opportunity over the next 12-20 months.

If you expect long term returns to be around 10% on the TSX, then you can expect peak to peak or trough to trough returns to be in that ballpark as well.
Last trough on the TSX was around the 6000 mark (in 2002). Having a 10% return since then means that we could see a trough at around 10k now.
As pessimistic as that sounds, and as painfull as it would be, I'd not be suprised if the bottom was reached around the 10k mark.

[gomyone]

If you expect long term returns to be around 10% on the TSX, then you can expect peak to peak or trough to trough returns to be in that ballpark as well.
Last trough on the TSX was around the 6000 mark (in 2002). Having a 10% return since then means that we could see a trough at around 10k now.
As pessimistic as that sounds, and as painfull as it would be, I'd not be suprised if the bottom was reached around the 10k mark.

...not a fan of "technical" analysis but I agree with you from a sectoral view - the correction you are suggesting should likely be in resource based stocks - the bull run in that sector of the TSX is really what carried the index up in this cycle

[x95zsk]

BEAR market - both US and Canada!

The good thing about canada - resources! and 1 tech company!

[notanexpert]

...not a fan of "technical" analysis but I agree with you from a sectoral view - the correction you are suggesting should likely be in resource based stocks - the bull run in that sector of the TSX is really what carried the index up in this cycle

Yeah, the financials are beaten up pretty good by now. So you'd basically need the world being scared that China and India will not keep growing at the current clip without the US consumers buying power, which could trigger a serious sell-off in resources that could bring TSX down to 10k.

[gomyone]

Yeah, the financials are beaten up pretty good by now. So you'd basically need the world being scared that China and India will not keep growing at the current clip without the US consumers buying power, which could trigger a serious sell-off in resources that could bring TSX down to 10k.

...agreed - its the financials that are getting beaten up right now, but the real mess will come is if the world stops believing the "decoupling theory" in tandem with a real consumer led recession in the US. My view is that if that latter happens then the rest of the world will follow no matter what is suggested in China and India. (Let's be frank much of China's growth has come at the benefit of a sorely undervalued currency which has helped them to serve voracious US domestic demand.) If the US consumer capitulates, commodity prices will fall hard and send the TSX right down to your 10K.

[elty]

Yeah, the financials are beaten up pretty good by now. So you'd basically need the world being scared that China and India will not keep growing at the current clip without the US consumers buying power, which could trigger a serious sell-off in resources that could bring TSX down to 10k.

Actually China is having it share of problems. Many grocery items shot up over 20% in last year. "A" stock remained overvalued (compared to H stock, which is also quite overvalued). High energy cost is also having an impact.

Another problem is Taiwan. Taiwan is having an election soon, and that Taiwan president Mr. Chen publicly stated he will consider implementing martial law after the election. Consider how his party is falling behind and his history of neglecting the constitution, you never know what he is going to do.

All of the above adds uncertainty. It probably won't stop China from growing, but will hinder them nonetheless.

[pitz]

Is this going to be a repeat of the 1970s where the US stock market didn't really gain anything for the entire decade?

[Arkaine]

Is this going to be a repeat of the 1970s where the US stock market didn't really gain anything for the entire decade?

Its beginning to look that way.

I just picked up a mutual fund that's the same price now as it was in Nov04... good or bad choice.. only time shall tell lol.

I'm a LT investor, I can handle 1-2 years of a recession ;)

[Bullseye]

Is this going to be a repeat of the 1970s where the US stock market didn't really gain anything for the entire decade?

That's quite a change of thought from your repeated assertions here that the TSX is way undervalued and likely to hit 15-16k.

I also recall that you use a fair bit of leverage to invest in stocks, has that changed?

[pitz]

That's quite a change of thought from your repeated assertions here that the TSX is way undervalued and likely to hit 15-16k.


I still believe that; the Canadian market did very well relative to the US market in the 1970s. In fact, at one point, the TSE Composite index was double that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.


I also recall that you use a fair bit of leverage to invest in stocks, has that changed?

Nope. My unlevered ROI is still greater than my interest expense, so the leverage is still creating value. 2006 and 2007 had ROE in excess of 25% -- so I don't particularly mind giving a little back to the market. In fact, the market downturn is helpful because it allows previously announced normal course issuer bid programs to be filled at much lower costs, and the interest rate downdraft reduces overall carrying costs.

[Arkaine]

I still believe that; the Canadian market did very well relative to the US market in the 1970s. In fact, at one point, the TSE Composite index was double that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.



Nope. My unlevered ROI is still greater than my interest expense, so the leverage is still creating value. 2006 and 2007 had ROE in excess of 25% -- so I don't particularly mind giving a little back to the market. In fact, the market downturn is helpful because it allows previously announced normal course issuer bid programs to be filled at much lower costs, and the interest rate downdraft reduces overall carrying costs.

Oh snap.. there's a sentence and half! damnnn lol

[BadDrafter]

Dollar cost averaging eat your heart out!!!

[Arkaine]

Dollar cost averaging eat your heart out!!!

That's what I am all about right now.. and the occasional 'hot' deal ;)

[Bullseye]

Nope. My unlevered ROI is still greater than my interest expense, so the leverage is still creating value. 2006 and 2007 had ROE in excess of 25% -- so I don't particularly mind giving a little back to the market.

Is 25%+ your unleveraged return? That would be amazing. From your posts, I thought you were an index investor, were there any indexes that gave that kind of return for 2007?

[notanexpert]

Is 25%+ your unleveraged return? That would be amazing. From your posts, I thought you were an index investor, were there any indexes that gave that kind of return for 2007?

I think Pitz is saying the Return on Equity is 25% looking at TSX earnings, not neccesairly his personal Return on Investment, although that should follow, except for these little fluctuations based on market sentiment that we're having now...

[Bullseye]

I think Pitz is saying the Return on Equity is 25% looking at TSX earnings, not neccesairly his personal Return on Investment, although that should follow, except for these little fluctuations based on market sentiment that we're having now...

But the TSX did not return anywhere close to that for those years. Meaning he was using leverage to achieve it, or investing in another index somewhere.

[stevethewheel]

If you expect long term returns to be around 10% on the TSX, then you can expect peak to peak or trough to trough returns to be in that ballpark as well.
Last trough on the TSX was around the 6000 mark (in 2002). Having a 10% return since then means that we could see a trough at around 10k now.
As pessimistic as that sounds, and as painfull as it would be, I'd not be suprised if the bottom was reached around the 10k mark.


That's an absolutely valid POV. I am just impatient enough buy in now and balance the "bird in the hand" of 12.5k today against the "2 in the bush" potential of a trough that hits 10k from the 15k peak. Or we might get another bounce up to 14 or 14.5 in which case I'll take the short term gain (like I did between Aug and Sept.). I'm not greedy or foolish enough to try and time to sell at the peak, and I don't worry about timing to buy at the bottom either. I do count on the equities markets rising over the long term so no matter how bad it gets, it recovers and then performs.

[goobelygoop]

Oh man...I thought we'd rally today but it's looking like we're gonna have a BAD day...either we see a sharp rally at 3pm or everyone just throws in the towel -- I'm guessing it's gonna be the latter.

[notanexpert]

But the TSX did not return anywhere close to that for those years. Meaning he was using leverage to achieve it, or investing in another index somewhere.

If the ROE is 25%, that does not mean automatically that is what you will achieve, or what Pitz achieved. Take the CIBC example, their ROE is 24% over the last four quaters I believe, yet the stock is down 40%. This is because of multiple compression, because the prices reflect the outlook on future earnings. So Pitz's 25% does not actually have to ever happen, but that is what the ROE looks like right now when taking into account total TSX earnings.

[XXXmen]

Looks like the markets have settled and the correction is beginning!
Thank God!

This is from some senior advice from friends of mine that are into Hedge Funds, whatever that means!

[rupert]

...lower yields in the bond market reflect a flight to safety - the previous poster talked about constrained credit - interrelated with the bond market but a different thing. And he's right - the credit market is on the verge of a pretty big collapse. Banks etc are parking their money in safe investments and are not willing to lend unless they get a higher interest rate - so spreads are very wide and constraining credit growth. Its definitely a crisis of confidence and good wreak havoc on the economy. I think things will be pretty ugly for the next few quarters....

Right.

Government bonds, munis are 'probably' safe.

But Corporate? CDOs? I wouldn't bet on those.

Whats happening with bond insurers ?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=625386418&play=1

[pitz]

Just to clarify -- return on my own equity > 25%.
Return on the investments I've made (my own money + borrowed money) has, obviously, been less.

So giving a little bit back isn't a problem. Most of my entry to the TSX index was at the 8000-9000 level.

[xc_ren]

Looks like the markets have settled and the correction is beginning!
Thank God!

This is from some senior advice from friends of mine that are into Hedge Funds, whatever that means!

buy gold?

[questrader]

Looks like the markets have settled and the correction is beginning!
Thank God!

This is from some senior advice from friends of mine that are into Hedge Funds, whatever that means!

It means that those in control of the big money are conspiring together as a secret cult to bring the whole market down! :twisted:

[questrader]

I can tolerate a 10% loss... its the 30% overall loss since Aug. that has me upset.

However I am not one to sell while down. To me the whole CDN market is insanely oversold. The problem with the CDN market is everyone today still reacts to US news like it impacts us the same way it did 10-20 years ago... it doesn't. It still impacts us heavily but not to the same extent.

We will have an upwards correction sooner or later when CDN fundamentals outweigh market panic based on US news.

I'm in the same boat as you, dude. One friggin bad play brought me down from break even to -30% (actually -15% w/o margin). That was during the November correction. Anyways, I expect my shorts to bring me back to break even by the end of Feb. Hopefully, this year will end in +50% ROI (+25% w/o margin)!

Somehow, I get the feeling that people (esp. the US President) will declare a recession after we are waist-deep into one...

[Thalo]

I'm in the same boat as you, dude. One friggin bad play brought me down from break even to -30% (actually -15% w/o margin). That was during the November correction. Anyways, I expect my shorts to bring me back to break even by the end of Feb. Hopefully, this year will end in +50% ROI (+25% w/o margin)!

Somehow, I get the feeling that people (esp. the US President) will declare a recession after we are waist-deep into one...

It's impossible to tell if we're in a recession until after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

[goobelygoop]

Sooo...does anyone have any thoughts for today? I'm actually SCARED for the first time ever.

[Arkaine]

Sooo...does anyone have any thoughts for today? I'm actually SCARED for the first time ever.

Me too... I just did some dollar cost averaging last week.. I think I may have jumped the gun.

US Recession Fears Sink Global Markets- AP

Asian and European stock markets plunged Monday following declines on Wall Street last week amid investor pessimism over the U.S. government's stimulus plan to prevent a recession.

[Bazooka Joe]

Looks like the asian markets are taking a beating this AM.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/world_markets

"India's benchmark Sensex stock index fell as much as 10.9 per cent in afternoon trading, while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 per cent to 23,818.86, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. "

[elty]

TSX - 523.81 :-0

Damn, I still have 10% of my portfolio not liquidated...

[questrader]

This huge gap-down is the shock the market needs to get things started rolling downhill...

[Shaf]

This huge gap-down is the shock the market needs to get things started rolling downhill...

:( I'm waiting for the uphill to come along.. hopefully soon...

[sucka]

No really a surprise to a lot of analyst .... quite a few saw it coming. The guy predicted it to go down to 10500 by the end of the year and it looks like a pretty good prediction.

[dealers]

Banks stocks look very attracted here!!

[ZenOps]

Freee falling.... Ouchies.

[Bullseye]

Banks stocks look very attracted here!!

Yes, BMO dividend is over 5% now. For someone assembling a dividend paying portfolio to live on, there are some great opportunities here for nice income streams.

[elty]

Banks stocks look very attracted here!!

Yea, I heard the same thing in the last few months.

[AllWheelDrift]

Banks stocks look very attracted here!!
Unfortunately, I thought they looked attractive last week... :rolleyes:

Even though some things look like bargains compared to where they were, the smart thing to do would probably be to wait until things stabalize a bit.

[Shaf]

Unfortunately, I thought they looked attractive last week... :rolleyes:

Even though some things look like bargains compared to where they were, the smart thing to do would probably be to wait until things stabalize a bit.

I agree. I am in the banks right now and in the shitter... but when they start climbing i'll probably buy more..

[AllWheelDrift]

I agree. I am in the banks right now and in the shitter... but when they start climbing i'll probably buy more..
The more their price drops, the more attractive their dividends look, assuming they don't cut them...

[zoober]

Any predictions on how big a drop it will take for BMO to cut their dividends?

[questrader]

OMG, the TSX-V is down ~7%, wowsa!! -5% is normal on a bad day, but -7%?

[Bullseye]

Any predictions on how big a drop it will take for BMO to cut their dividends?

Their stock price wouldn't cause them to cut it. BMO hasn't cut their dividend in a while now, about 150 years. :-0

It's generally a drop in revenues that causes a dividend cut.

[rfdrfd]

Unfortunately, I thought they looked attractive last week... :rolleyes:

Even though some things look like bargains compared to where they were, the smart thing to do would probably be to wait until things stabalize a bit.

+1


Why look at the dangerous banks right now? Go into something else that is guaranteed to do well later. Like Oil, Gold. Oil countries aren't stupid, they will keep milking this until the cows come home.

Banks on the other hand can go bankrupt (or be bought out). This subprime crisis isn't solved yet, so its extremely hard to judge where the bottom is right now.

[notanexpert]

Their stock price wouldn't cause them to cut it. BMO hasn't cut their dividend in a while now, about 150 years. :-0

It's generally a drop in revenues that causes a dividend cut.

Or a big increase in shares outstanding, like with Citi, they've issued so many new shares, they can not afford to pay all these new shareholders the kind of dividends they were paying before the issue, so they cut the dividend.

[funkylist]

Damn stupid stock market. I should of sold my stocks and bought a home entertainment unit.. At least I would have something to enjoy..

[AllWheelDrift]

Any predictions on how big a drop it will take for BMO to cut their dividends?
Dividends should be based on how well the company is doing (profit) not based on how well their stock or the stock market in general is or isn't doing. It's more a question of are they doing badly enough that the beaten up stock price is appropriate, and if so, are things bad enough that they will cut their dividend to help their bottom line.

My thoughts are that as long as the banks are making money, they will try not to touch their dividends, but if they start losing money, cutting dividends will be fair game. They'll probably try to avoid it unless they have very serious problems, or are showing losses for a few consecutive quarters.

[netriones]

wow!, WHAT WAS THE LAST TIME TSX DROP MORE THAN 4.5% IN 2 HOURS? TOo bad already built up most positions.

[gomyone]

+1


Why look at the dangerous banks right now? Go into something else that is guaranteed to do well later. Like Oil, Gold. Oil countries aren't stupid, they will keep milking this until the cows come home.

Banks on the other hand can go bankrupt (or be bought out). This subprime crisis isn't solved yet, so its extremely hard to judge where the bottom is right now.

..with yields running around the 4-5% mark, the banks don't look terribly bad. Where there is probably the most overvaluation and the place that is prone to the biggest correction are the commodities - this was the source of the big gains for the TSX iver the last few years. If you believe in recession, this is what is going to come off big time. The big drops on the tsx-v today might reflect this growing belief...

[elty]

-600 now.....

[HighFlyer]

a couple of my low ball stink bids got filled....

[morpheiz]

Should I sell?

Invested in December. Need the money 3/4 into the year. Do you think it will drop more? I'm invested in resources mutual funds.

[mrtron]

Should I sell?

Invested in December. Need the money 3/4 into the year. Do you think it will drop more? I'm invested in resources mutual funds.

Buy High, sell Low!

If you needed the money in less than a year, resources mutual funds were quite an odd move to make. If you have money that you know you will need out at X date, I would personally stick to some guaranteed return, something like a GIC or high rate savings account.

Anyways, now that you are in this position, selling on a massive low day is not a great move. Sell sometime in the next 6 months when things are doing well.

[Ebola]

I suppose this would be a good time to start buying:)

[konfusion666]

Any predictions on how big a drop it will take for BMO to cut their dividends?

citi cut their dividend because of a 10 billion write-down.
what was bmo's writedown? like a piddly 300 MILLION or something??? c'mon...

[morpheiz]

Yeah, I was looking at the momentum of the funds and was too greedy.
You think they will recover a bit in a few months or just keep on dropping?

[Octavius]

Yeah, I was looking at the momentum of the funds and was too greedy.
You think they will recover a bit in a few months or just keep on dropping?

I dunno about the next few months (I really hope they recover as I bought most of my funds at 13,000 >:( ) but I wouldn't be surprised if we got another horrible day tomorrow due to the US markets being open AND the BoC rate cut that will be announced.

I'll wait until tomorrow to buy some more.

[Bazooka Joe]

Yeah, I was looking at the momentum of the funds and was too greedy.
You think they will recover a bit in a few months or just keep on dropping?

Nobody knows how deep this hole will go.

Will the stocks rebound from the lowest point? Probably.

Will the stocks rebound to above today's value? Magic eight ball says: Maybe.

(basically, no one can know for sure. For every person that says it'll go back up you'll find another that says it'll go down further)

I'm a fan of going down with the ship personally. Will it work out?

[konfusion666]

Wonder what Jeff Rubin is going to say?

"Did I say 15000 by the end of 2008... sorry, I meant 10000..."

[gomyone]

Wonder what Jeff Rubin is going to say?

"Did I say 15000 by the end of 2008... sorry, I meant 10000..."

Rubin also believes in the almighty power of commodity prices...the markets are suggesting otherwise today....

[elty]

I think it is very hard to guess the bottom.... much easier to just follow the trend.

[konfusion666]

Unfortunately, I had to pull out a chunk from my non-RRSP account today.
Horrible timing, but it was a matter that was out of my hands. :mad:

[Rosico]

wonder how those with margin calls are feeling right about now?

[Germack]

Any predictions on how big a drop it will take for BMO to cut their dividends?

What is important is the earnings per share value. BMO EPS were lower in 2007 than in 2004, so why should the stock price be higher in 2007 than in 2004?

Banks were "printing" money during the housing boom. Once the housing market is cooling in Cananda too their earnings will take a big hit and so will their stock.

I would not be surprised to see BMO at 40$ per share

[species5618w]

What is important is the earnings per share value. BMO EPS were lower in 2007 than in 2004, so why should the stock price be higher in 2007 than in 2004?

Banks were "printing" money during the housing boom. Once the housing market is cooling in Cananda too their earnings will take a big hit and so will their stock.

I would not be surprised to see BMO at 40$ per share

Where can I find historical EPS info? Thanks.

[brunes]

What is important is the earnings per share value. BMO EPS were lower in 2007 than in 2004, so why should the stock price be higher in 2007 than in 2004?

Banks were "printing" money during the housing boom. Once the housing market is cooling in Cananda too their earnings will take a big hit and so will their stock.

Argh. Dunno how many times I need to say it, US market != Canada market. Housing in Canada is still very strong. This is why if I had any amount of savings right now I would be dumping it wholesale into the Canadian banks. These recent market corrections in the TSX are totally unjustified wen you actually look at what is going on in the Canadian market. The Canadian banks have never been highly invested in US mortgages so the subprime meltdown did not affect them highly. (Except for National of course)

Canada Housing Strong - http://www.homesgofast.com/view_news/605/

U.S. slowdown may boost Canada's real estate market - http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080118/recession_housing_080118/20080120?hub=TopStories

CMHC says "We're seeing very strong growth in many parts of our economy including the housing starts, even though December was bit of a payback after some strength for the year." - http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5j4PYa4H9w0c0qz2_jexN-fABCg_w

[notanexpert]

...
The Canadian banks have never been highly invested in US mortgages so the subprime meltdown did not affect them highly. (Except for National of course)
...

You may want to add CIBC to your list...
However, I do agree with you, I think this will be viewed as a good buying opportunity a few years down the road. Within a few months though, we could still see lower prices - nobody rings a bell when you reach the bottom, so you have to average your way in.

[Germack]

Where can I find historical EPS info? Thanks.


http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/stock?id=BMO-T&pi_sponsor=

[rupert]

You may want to add CIBC to your list...
However, I do agree with you, I think this will be viewed as a good buying opportunity a few years down the road. Within a few months though, we could still see lower prices - nobody rings a bell when you reach the bottom, so you have to average your way in.

+1 , CIBC is very suspect at this point and I wouldn't go anywhere near that. No one knows how much effect it has on CIBC when ACA goes down (aca is already trading in pinks).

From my past observation though if you still see people buying, we have not reached a bottom. Usually they are reached when nobody talks about the market anymore. notanexpert is right, nobody rings a bell, in fact there will be no sound.

[Sylvestre]

Wow!
and today the US market is closed. Curious to see tomorrow morning in the states.

[SaraLee]

I am gonna sit back and count my (couch) potatoes.

Nothing changes for me until July – the annual date I set for adding funds to my portfolio.

[questrader]

Wow!
and today the US market is closed. Curious to see tomorrow morning in the states.

That's gonna depend on how the Asian markets perform overnight, but I would imagine millions of people dying to get out of whatever stock they were holding at the opening bell!

[elty]

Today TSX seems to hover in between 12100 and 12200.

[Thalo]

I can't wait to see how many units my PPP will purchase on Friday.

[carpeter]

I'm in the same boat as you, dude. One friggin bad play brought me down from break even to -30% (actually -15% w/o margin). That was during the November correction. Anyways, I expect my shorts to bring me back to break even by the end of Feb. Hopefully, this year will end in +50% ROI (+25% w/o margin)!

Somehow, I get the feeling that people (esp. the US President) will declare a recession after we are waist-deep into one...

Markets will not wait (are not waiting) for politicians to confirm there is a recession. Let's see if it will impact Canadian housing market.

[volan]

Argh. Dunno how many times I need to say it, US market != Canada market. Housing in Canada is still very strong. This is why if I had any amount of savings right now I would be dumping it wholesale into the Canadian banks. These recent market corrections in the TSX are totally unjustified wen you actually look at what is going on in the Canadian market. The Canadian banks have never been highly invested in US mortgages so the subprime meltdown did not affect them highly. (Except for National of course)

Canada Housing Strong - http://www.homesgofast.com/view_news/605/

U.S. slowdown may boost Canada's real estate market - http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080118/recession_housing_080118/20080120?hub=TopStories

CMHC says "We're seeing very strong growth in many parts of our economy including the housing starts, even though December was bit of a payback after some strength for the year." - http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5j4PYa4H9w0c0qz2_jexN-fABCg_wThe problem is that the Canadian and US economies are joined at the hip. If the US goes into recession (due to sub-prime mortgage fiasco or otherwise) Canada will have to follow. Here's my reasoning.

If the US goes into recession it means that their GDP drops, that is, they produce less than they did before. If they're producing less than they did they don't need to employ as many people so there are layoffs, which further depresses the economy because those people who lost their jobs won't be buying much. Also if the US is not producing as much as they did they don't need to buy as much. Who are they buying from? Canada!!!!

Canada's biggest trading partner is the US. Canada is an export nation. If the Americans aren't buying from us we're in BIG trouble.

[carpeter]

The problem is that the Canadian and US economies are joined at the hip. If the US goes into recession (due to sub-prime mortgage fiasco or otherwise) Canada will have to follow. Here's my reasoning.

If the US goes into recession it means that their GDP drops, that is, they produce less than they did before. If they're producing less than they did they don't need to employ as many people so there are layoffs, which further depresses the economy because those people who lost their jobs won't be buying much. Also if the US is not producing as much as they did they don't need to buy as much. Who are they buying from? Canada!!!!

Canada's biggest trading partner is the US. Canada is an export nation. If the Americans aren't buying from us we're in BIG trouble.

Plus US dollar now gaining value again and their exports will drop as well so more reasons to lay off people.

[questrader]

Wowsa, Tokyo Stock Xchange (TOPIX) just posted another ~2.5% nose dive near the opening bell! The US could be looking at a lot of pain come tomorrow...

* Correction: Make that >-3%!

[elty]

I don't understand about something.

Bush talk was on Friday during the trading session. Nobody expect he said anything useful, and he did not disappoint anyone. How come the market didn't react at that time?

[questrader]

Bush talk was on Friday during the trading session. Nobody expect he said anything useful, and he did not disappoint anyone. How come the market didn't react at that time?

He didn't scare anyone on Friday. You need some sort of lag time for the scarecrows to come out and spread the panic!

[carpeter]

Tomorrow Central bank of Canada will announce the interest rates?

[epson600]

yep, Jan 22. 9:00am if im not wrong. Free prediction: lower.

[Arkaine]

dang I bought too early.

Need to go find more money and buy more LOL

[faken]

yes I sold mine in the middle of Dec. I wonder how much further it's going to go down.. I think i'm going to buy some more stocks soon :).

[pakmode]

OMG...today hurt. EVERYTHING was down. My KRY was down .30 most of the day, but with 5 minutes left somebody put in a 100K market sell order and it tanked another .20....brutal, absolutely brutal.
Everything was down on no news...just a general, uneasy, get-me-out-of-the-market selloff.

I did manage to buy some stuff on the cheap though. Rebounded up a couple percentage points, that is after it came down a good 25-30% lol. I can't help shopping when good stocks are on clearance.

Anyways...hopefully we see a bottom this week.

[questrader]

That's the thing that puzzles me about you people. Why are you buying into a bear market? Clearly, the party's not over yet!

[carpeter]

The best investment for this week and perhaps next 3 to 6 months is buying lottery tickets unless you know something that no one else does about a particular stock ;)

[questrader]

OMG...today hurt. EVERYTHING was down. My KRY was down .30 most of the day, but with 5 minutes left somebody put in a 100K market sell order and it tanked another .20....brutal, absolutely brutal.
Everything was down on no news...just a general, uneasy, get-me-out-of-the-market selloff.

I did manage to buy some stuff on the cheap though. Rebounded up a couple percentage points, that is after it came down a good 25-30% lol. I can't help shopping when good stocks are on clearance.

Anyways...hopefully we see a bottom this week.

Ouch! If I were in your shoes, that one single drop of 22% in one day would give me nightmares for years to come, where the voice of the margin caller would be permanently stamped into my memory!

[elty]

HSI: -1914 (8%)
Nikkei: -600 (4.5%)
Shanghai: -200 (4%)
Seoul: -85 (5.5%)

[Icedawn]

ow is all I can say today...

this is nuts, have dividend stocks that are up to 13% yield now...

[stooker]

It is only me?


Nasdaq down 25% to 1767.50? (us future)

[pitz]

It is only me?


Nasdaq down 25% to 1767.50? (us future)

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

is showing 1759 right now.

Wouldn't surprise me on the Nasdaq though; that stuff's been a bunch of hot air for years. I mean, GOOG $700 makes no sense even under current conditions. If you price in a recession, it just looks ridiculous.

Nasdaq could shed 50% and it would only then might be fairly valued.

[T3NSION]

Bloodbath tomorrow

[gizmo8]

the credit crunch must be worst than the Bush spin doctors are indicating.With close to 2 million and counting home owners who lost their house or about too the amount of dead debt by the banks has to be in huge.Even a %1 drop in the central interest it still will not help those who lost everything.The 125 Billion US Bush is asking to "stimulate" the economy is peanuts compare to the amount of trillions of debt American citizens are holding.Investors are moving over to bonds and other low yield investments until markets shows a clear direction,the mess will not stop until world markets sees a plan that will stabilize the economy in the US,everything evolves around the USA markets.

[JoeyB]

the stock market will continue it's decline today (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=2008-01-22_D8UAR6400&show_article=1&cat=breaking)
as Asia and Europe are tanking again right now.


Speaking of subprime
apparently British banks (the British govt is bailing them out with some kind of long term bonds bs)
AND Chinese banks
are holding a bunch of subprime garbage )I'm assuming that's America garbage:confused:
Hopefully Canadian banks aren't on the hook for a lot of that trash.

[Arkaine]

Seriously though.. when do people start going to bond funds etc lol

[Germack]

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." Peter Lynch

Things are going to get a lot worse. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

[epson600]

Bank of Canada did a .25% cut today.
US Fed did an emergency .75%.

[Bullseye]

Bank of Canada did a .25% cut today.
US Fed did an emergency .75%.

Where are you getting news that fast??

[gizmo8]

The Feds did cut .75...its official...again the cycles continues...the low interest borrowing is what caused this mess in the first place.

[dux]

I don't understand about something.

Bush talk was on Friday during the trading session. Nobody expect he said anything useful, and he did not disappoint anyone. How come the market didn't react at that time?

I don't think anybody cares what he says anymore... he is just a puppet untill the next elections.

[epson600]

Where are you getting news that fast??

I have chips implanted in key people...;)

Nah, the CAN released their cut at 9:00am, the US already had the cut out when I checked this morning.

[Jungle]

And it's on the bank of Canada's web site:

Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 4 per centOTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 4 1/4 per cent.

In the second half of 2007, the Canadian economy grew broadly in line with the Bank's expectations in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Despite some slowing in growth in the fourth quarter, the Canadian economy continues to operate above its production capacity. Both core and total CPI inflation have been lower than projected in the MPR, largely reflecting a price-level adjustment related to increased competitive pressures in the retail sector stemming from the level of the Canadian dollar.

Financial market conditions have deteriorated since October, leading to a tightening of credit conditions in industrial countries. Given this, and a deeper, more prolonged decline in the U.S. residential housing sector, the 2008 outlook for the U.S. economy is now significantly weaker than at the time of the October MPR.

For Canada, the effects of the weaker U.S. economic outlook will lead to additional downward pressure on export growth. However, despite tighter credit conditions, domestic demand in Canada is projected to remain strong. This strength is supported by continued income growth associated with the increase in commodity prices since October, which has led to further gains in our terms of trade. Overall, the Bank now projects weaker growth in 2008 than was expected in October, with the economy moving into modest excess supply in the second quarter of this year. Somewhat stronger growth in 2009 brings the Canadian economy back into balance in early 2010. The inflation projection has also been revised down since October, especially for 2008, primarily reflecting the price-level adjustment noted above and the recent one-percentage-point cut in the GST. Both core and total CPI inflation should fall below 1 1/2 per cent by the middle of this year before returning to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2009. On the whole, the Bank judges that the risks to this inflation projection are roughly balanced.

In line with this outlook, the Bank has decided to lower the target for the overnight rate and further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to return inflation to target over the medium term.

The Bank's detailed projection for the economy and inflation, and risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 24 January 2008.

Information note:

The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 March 2008.

http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2008/rate_220108.html

[elty]

Not as much of a bloodpath as one may hope.

[rdtx2002]

lets see if we can sustain this rally until the closing bell

[Shaf]

lets see if we can sustain this rally until the closing bell

I hope so...

[Advantage22]

Not as much of a bloodpath as one may hope.

Once again, the Market shows it defies all short term predictions. Hang on to your day jobs.

[elty]

Once again, the Market shows it defies all short term predictions. Hang on to your day jobs.

Just find it funny that a bloodshed in everywhere else but the originator suffer nothing. :twisted:

[Firebot]

Once again, the Market shows it defies all short term predictions. Hang on to your day jobs.

The US made an emergency 75 basis point interest decrease. Of course that is going to stop the bloodshed if only for one day. If that action wasn't taken, Dowjones was already down -600 pre-market, and today would have been a disaster of epic proportions.

TSX is currently seeing the benefits of an interest decrease in both Canada and the US.

[nanirina]

Where are you getting news that fast??

AM 680 all news station!

[Nemodigital]

The Feds did cut .75...its official...again the cycles continues...the low interest borrowing is what caused this mess in the first place.Yep... now watch the inflation rate jump.

[dgmorr]

dead cat bounce.

[questrader]

I think this (planned) surprise move was a way of the US to say, "let the rest of world f*** itself, while we take a vacation on Monday!"

Damn, stocks are so sharply up today! Now would be a good time to start selling/shorting!

[Blunt]

This is absolutely ridiculous.
The governments have to stop with their bandaid solutions.
This will only make the situation worst in the long term.
Let the market free fall!!! (Like it should)

[questrader]

This is absolutely ridiculous.
The governments have to stop with their bandaid solutions.
This will only make the situation worst in the long term.
Let the market free fall!!! (Like it should)

It's not healthy for the market to free fall, cuz then you hamper recovery. What is healthy is to give people a few false hopes here and there along the way to the bottom... I wouldn't be surprised if the market exceeds yesterday's drop a couple of weeks from now!

[sergiepopov]

Things proved to be gloomier than many have first thought, this Sunday NY Times was a real eye opener on how bad things really are, as US housing market went belly up causing the nation's economy lose trillions of dollars.
Watch out Canada.

PS. get that credit line/credit maxed out.

[Shaf]

I think this (planned) surprise move was a way of the US to say, "let the rest of world f*** itself, while we take a vacation on Monday!"

Damn, stocks are so sharply up today! Now would be a good time to start selling/shorting!

Think tomorrow will be the same as today? I hope so!!

[elty]

The market went up because Fed cut rate unexpectedly. But seriously, does it really matter that they cut rate like 10 days earlier? I guess after today we will just go down again, if nothing else has changed.

[gizmo8]

total agree with elty...the early rate cut was large and early,it was a quick patch up job at best...look like desperation cut rather than a plan to resolve the huge credit crunch.We have to wait to see how the first quarter pans out,the financial industry is taking a beating and the companies that insures them are losing billions also.I doubt we see a housing meltdown as the USA is going thru,but we will see a slowing in appreciation on home values.Either way Canada still is on solid ground if our dollar slowly pulls back to 93-95 cent range.The exporters are taking a beating though.

[sergiepopov]

The market went up because Fed cut rate unexpectedly. But seriously, does it really matter that they cut rate like 10 days earlier? I guess after today we will just go down again, if nothing else has changed.

I think it would make a difference like a timely insulin shot for a diabetic - temporary, yet life saving.

[AllWheelDrift]

Think tomorrow will be the same as today? I hope so!!
I expect the slow but steady declines to resume tomorrow which is why I exited a couple positions on today's bounce. Figured I'd free up the capital now so I can take advantage of opportunities that will present themselves later. I fully expect some more big drops before things stabalize.

[brunes]

Things proved to be gloomier than many have first thought, this Sunday NY Times was a real eye opener on how bad things really are, as US housing market went belly up causing the nation's economy lose trillions of dollars.
Watch out Canada.

PS. get that credit line/credit maxed out.

I read this about 10 times and have no idea what you are getting at - why would we want to max our credit lines with the spectre of a recession looming?

[questrader]

I expect the slow but steady declines to resume tomorrow which is why I exited a couple positions on today's bounce. Figured I'd free up the capital now so I can take advantage of opportunities that will present themselves later. I fully expect some more big drops before things stabalize.

+1. Today was too much of a big bounce for one day (with some stocks anyways). I remember a time last year, when VMWare shot up like crazy in one day, from opening to close. The next day, it fell like crazy. But we might see a slow and steady fall, like you suggested.

[elty]

I read this about 10 times and have no idea what you are getting at - why would we want to max our credit lines with the spectre of a recession looming?

Get all the $$$ you can before bankruptcy? Just guessing :D

[Thalo]

Haha, all we need is about 100 point rise tomorrow and we'll be in the positive for the week.

Looks like today people came to their senses and realized how ridiculously undervalued bank stocks are and ate them up.

[elty]

Haha, all we need is about 100 point rise tomorrow and we'll be in the positive for the week.

Looks like today people came to their senses and realized how ridiculously undervalued bank stocks are and ate them up.

Looks like you are not getting that 100 point for now.

[questrader]

Whoopty do! :twisted:

[AllWheelDrift]

Haha, all we need is about 100 point rise tomorrow and we'll be in the positive for the week.

Looks like today people came to their senses and realized how ridiculously undervalued bank stocks are and ate them up.
Looks like today bank stocks are still doing mostly OK, but I guess the rest of the market is taking a beating.

[Firebot]

Haha, all we need is about 100 point rise tomorrow and we'll be in the positive for the week.

Looks like today people came to their senses and realized how ridiculously undervalued bank stocks are and ate them up.

Oops? (http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EGSPTSE) The only people who came to their senses are those who realize that the interest rate slashing does little to prevent this upcoming recession, and the huge credit crunch, and sold at an opportunistic time.

The bank stocks are not ridiculously undervalued. There is a lot of hurt still incoming, and CIBC especially may be in huge trouble.

** The market hates me lol, as soon as I post this, the Dowjones comes from a dreadful 300 point loss, to a 300 point gain to end the day.

[speeeeee]

Late surge !! hope it continues ! need to make up for all the losing lately

[konfusion666]

There's really no point in making predictions/statements about what's going on right now, as today's volatility indicated. CDN bank stocks recovered nicely by closing today, but they can come sliding down again tomorrow.

[Just Confused]

This is the second half of the required 20% correction. We had 10% earlier in 2007 (coincidentally at the time of the original OP).

What we are in at this moment is called the "dead cat bounce". It happens when anything dead hits a solid object. You have a dramatic drop (Monday), then people think there are bargains and bid prices up (Tuesday and today) but the dead cat is still dead and it will drift downward for awhile until it stabilizes on the cement. Then we start the economic cycle over again. Unfortunately that takes about 18 months or so (statistically speaking). I'm sure some market guru on this forum can provide the exact statistic.

In the meantime, the media gets excited, consumers lose confidence, businesses respond, jobs are impacted. It's called a recession and they happen periodically. We'll get through it (for the most part) and life will go on. It's almost the same as being surprised when it snows in November. It is just baffling when so many people don't expect it to happen, and like the "ant & grasshopper" story, they aren't prepared for it.

[questrader]

This is the second half of the required 20% correction. We had 10% earlier in 2007 (coincidentally at the time of the original OP).

What we are in at this moment is called the "dead cat bounce". It happens when anything dead hits a solid object. You have a dramatic drop (Monday), then people think there are bargains and bid prices up (Tuesday and today) but the dead cat is still dead and it will drift downward for awhile until it stabilizes on the cement. Then we start the economic cycle over again. Unfortunately that takes about 18 months or so (statistically speaking). I'm sure some market guru on this forum can provide the exact statistic.

I once saw cat roadkill lying on the sidewalk. It wasn't a pretty sight. Can't we call it a "dead bird bounce", to make it less gruelsome? :confused:

[Thalo]

This is the second half of the required 20% correction. We had 10% earlier in 2007 (coincidentally at the time of the original OP).

What we are in at this moment is called the "dead cat bounce". It happens when anything dead hits a solid object. You have a dramatic drop (Monday), then people think there are bargains and bid prices up (Tuesday and today) but the dead cat is still dead and it will drift downward for awhile until it stabilizes on the cement. Then we start the economic cycle over again. Unfortunately that takes about 18 months or so (statistically speaking). I'm sure some market guru on this forum can provide the exact statistic.

In the meantime, the media gets excited, consumers lose confidence, businesses respond, jobs are impacted. It's called a recession and they happen periodically. We'll get through it (for the most part) and life will go on. It's almost the same as being surprised when it snows in November. It is just baffling when so many people don't expect it to happen, and like the "ant & grasshopper" story, they aren't prepared for it.

I'd agree with you, but it could also be reaction to the 75bp cut by the Fed as well as possibility the U.S. government will bail out the bond insurance agency.

I still like U.S. fundamentals. Nothing could be better for their economy than low and declining interest rates, a relatively low $USD and declining trade deficit. On top of that, U.S. stocks are priced so cheaply right now that they've pretty much already priced in significant declines in earnings.

[elty]

The ruling party in Japan is considering about rescuing the stock market with:

- Tax exempt for capital gain and dividend income from the stock market
- Cut interest rate back to 0
- Establishing a sovereign wealth fund
- "Tax reductions on income tax when there is a wage rise"

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT8236320080124?rpc=44

[questrader]

The ruling party in Japan is planning to rescue the stock market with:

- Tax exempt for capital gain and dividend income from the stock market
- Cut interest rate back to 0
- Establishing a sovereign wealth fund
- "Tax reductions on income tax when there is a wage rise"

According to that article, the ruling sentiment is that if Japan didn't do anything, the threat of recession is still there, even after the Feds cut and talk about helping insurers... Anyways, I'm going to wait around a few days before I make my own judgement. But somehow, the fall on Monday wasn't "satisfying" in that you didn't see any kind of rally from the bulls, until the surprise rate cut.

[pitz]

- Tax exempt for capital gain and dividend income from the stock market


Japanese already don't pay capital gains tax.


- Cut interest rate back to 0


Its 0.5% right now; what would 0% do? Big deal -- banks collect at least twice that in spreads anyways. Japan needs higher interest rates before the stock market will go up, not lower rates.


- Establishing a sovereign wealth fund


Great, over-tax the citizens so it can be invested abroad. Didn't America reject that idea in 1776 and stick it to the British? When governments steal from the citizens, things can get violent.

Bizzarre.

[Thalo]

When will "the ruling party" ever realize that protectionism and merchantilism don't work? There's so much potential for Japan, with it being the developed core in an emerging markets part of the world, but they're run by nitwits.

[elty]

When will "the ruling party" ever realize that protectionism and merchantilism don't work? There's so much potential for Japan, with it being the developed core in an emerging markets part of the world, but they're run by nitwits.

The article has multiple updates. Now it is "group of ruling party lawmakers urged Japan's government".

Anyways, the Ministry of Finance in Japan pretty much screwed up all the way from the 80s to now.

[Just Confused]

Can't we call it a "dead bird bounce", to make it less gruelsome?

I'm afraid that's not possible. This is an expression you remember after you've been through your first recession. The pattern is quite recognizable. Here's a more authoritative description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

[Thalo]

Back in the day they often tossed cats off of high roof tops.

[questrader]

Back in the day they often tossed cats off of high roof tops.

They still do, except off of certain high cliffs with jagged rocks below on certain Caribbean islands... :D

[Shaf]

quite the bloody day today... :(

[HighFlyer]

quite the bloody day today... :(

down ~49 pts = bloody?

[metro]

whats everyones magic 8-ball saying about the direct of the major indexes?

rate cute encourages investment in the market but underlying economic issues in the US should be indicating the market should be heading down.

Whats everyone elses analysis?

[AllWheelDrift]

My magic 8-ball says: "Outlook not so good"

But given the nature of magic 8-balls, might as well toss a coin.

I liquidated a small portion (<5%) of my investments in the hopes of finding some bargains if things sour in the mid term. For the moment, it's hard to to find it annoying that my self directed RRSP has taken a sizeable hit and may take a further hit but since I have many years until retirement I'm not worried and would consider a big drop in the next 6 months or so an opportunity rather than a tradgedy.

[wetnose]

Since we're on the subject of forecasting, a famous feng shui dude (Raymond Lo) from Hong Kong said that 2008 won't be too bad. Basically, we're not headed for utter disaster.

He also said property, mining, chemicals, machinery and high tech will do better than other industries. (finance, shipping, entertainment)

Hey at least he has something to go on compared to an 8 ball. He has his other predictions for 2006 and 2007 on his website.

[Thalo]

The Chinese are just optimistic about 2008 'cause 8 is their lucky number.

[ibanker]

no clue how u guys r doing but im 90% in the nasdaq and nyse and 10% in tsx and im doing amazing. i did a complete reshuffling at the beginning of the year and its been great

[metro]

how high up is this cat going to bounce?

[Octavius]

how high up is this cat going to bounce?

With any luck ~ 14,000 so I can pull out before it plummets again.

[bcbgboy13]

:arrowu:

[zoober]

Looks like 13400 was when the cat lost momentum.

[Shaf]

no fun today :(

[Blunt]

Let's have a 480 point drop tomorrow!!!

[codemonkey]

wicked. lets keep going.

[funkylist]

bummer, another horrible day...

[Ferman]

The Chinese are just optimistic about 2008 'cause 8 is their lucky number.

Three letters for you: FXP

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXP

[elty]

Sold my last long position during the initial rebound today. Barely break even on that one :(

[pitz]

What the h*ll is going on? Canadian corporate earnings are still growing solidly. Commodity prices are still accelerating nicely. Interest rates have dropped dramatically. The Canadian TSX should be advancing spectacularly, not declining, in this sort of market.

[Blunt]

What the h*ll is going on? Canadian corporate earnings are still growing solidly. Commodity prices are still accelerating nicely. Interest rates have dropped dramatically. The Canadian TSX should be advancing spectacularly, not declining, in this sort of market.

When is the market supposed to make sense? The market is being fueled by irrational fear mongering. The use of the the R-word (recession) has people spooked... people are pulling out their RRSP and not buying this year.
Seeing how the market was today, I think there's gonna be a big drop in the very near future. We had good earning being reported today and the market was holding for the morning and by afternoon it was dropping steadily. :confused:

[kingrukus]

13300 is the new peak. get ready for 11k on the TSX as long as the r-word continues.

[pitz]

Well, IMHO, its pretty damn spectacular when the TSX Composite's dividend yield is in fact higher than the yields out to 1-year on US treasuries.

And that's dividend yield -- not even earnings yield!

[Bazooka Joe]

What the h*ll is going on? Canadian corporate earnings are still growing solidly. Commodity prices are still accelerating nicely. Interest rates have dropped dramatically. The Canadian TSX should be advancing spectacularly, not declining, in this sort of market.

There are no shortage of subjects in which public perception defies reality/logic. Unfortunately, the majority of systems in place in society are based on public perception. Stock market, real estate, legislation, etc.

After all, a stock is only really worth what another individual is willing to pay for it, and when you've got a bumper crop of baby boomers who are relying on nothing outside of RRSP and company directed stock plans, they get pretty gun shy when it they lose 5% of their net worth in a day and they've only got a few years left to make it back before they need it.

While the baby boomers retire I think we're going to see a lot more of this kind of thing coming up. I'd imagine a lot of them undersaved for most of their lives, and have been trying to make up for it in the last 5 years or so. Now that they will be needing that money to live, expect more of them to withdraw.

Just another crackpot theory to add to the mix :razz:

[questrader]

Is it me, or has the r-word become increasingly stale? Whenever I hear the r-word, I barely cringe. Guess that January's behavior must have already desensitized me...

[questrader]

"Wall Street Rebounds From Recent Losses As Lure of Bargains Outweighs Disappointing Data".

Um, yeah... Sure. You ever get the feeling that Wall Street was just acting out (ie. feigning a drop) to pressure the Feds into more rate cuts. All of a sudden the Feds say, "p1ss off, you ain't getting anymore", and out of the blue comes stories about "Bargain Hunting", which is just Wall Street's way of saying, "ok, we'll play nice from now on, since anything that we do won't affect the Feds for a short while..." Go figure!

[pitz]

After all, a stock is only really worth what another individual is willing to pay for it, and when you've got a bumper crop of baby boomers who are relying on nothing outside of RRSP and company directed stock plans, they get pretty gun shy when it they lose 5% of their net worth in a day and they've only got a few years left to make it back before they need it.


Sure, so they put all their money in cash savings accounts (or equivilants), and the banks make a whole ton of money because, let's face it -- savings accounts don't pay much interest, and they can earn a pretty good spread on the cash.

Or they put it into houses, and the construction industry reaps windfall profits, while renters essentially live 'on-the-cheap' because a bunch of stupid investors are massively overbuilding housing capacity (hopefully those renters used their money to buy cheap stocks in the meantime..).

Basically, you're right -- you never make good money going *with* the herd, but plenty of money if you bet against the herd. When everyone was going nuts over Nortel, you should've been buying houses. When everyone was going nuts over houses, you should've been buying stocks. When stocks go nuts again (ie: surpass their 2000 highs by a significant amount), it might be time to buy cheap houses.


While the baby boomers retire I think we're going to see a lot more of this kind of thing coming up. I'd imagine a lot of them undersaved for most of their lives, and have been trying to make up for it in the last 5 years or so. Now that they will be needing that money to live, expect more of them to withdraw.


Well I personally still think the boomers have quite a few years to go in the workplace, and most of them have the majority of their worth tied up in real estate. Once that bubble pops (and it is, right now), the boomers will realize the importance of owning businesses, not consumer goods (houses, cars, etc.) to provide for their retirements.

A good healthy dose of consumer-staples and energy inflation and deflation in housing will help out as well -- in destroying any confidence in paper assets (ie: bonds, cash, corporate and government pensions), and will drive investors towards productive industries such as mining, energy, manufacturing, certain types of technology, and certain consumer non-cyclicals, as true inflationary hedges.


Just another crackpot theory to add to the mix :razz:

Yeah, those are a dime a dozen :P

[Bullseye]

TSX back to break-even for year to date.

Fess up now, who here has lost their nerve and sold equities this year?

And who bought in when the TSX was down to 12,200? I did a bit, but it was just part of my plan already in place to greadually re-adjust my asset allocation, made a while back.

Still looks like some potential bargains left in bank stocks, and maybe buying into US equities. Maybe I'll eat those words later, though!

[hagbard]

TSX back to break-even for year to date.

Fess up now, who here has lost their nerve and sold equities this year?

And who bought in when the TSX was down to 12,200? I did a bit, but it was just part of my plan already in place to greadually re-adjust my asset allocation, made a while back.

Still looks like some potential bargains left in bank stocks, and maybe buying into US equities. Maybe I'll eat those words later, though!

I stick it out, and I'm still WAY down. I'm selling soon as I can recover what I lost and NEVER coming back.

[pitz]

I stick it out, and I'm still WAY down. I'm selling soon as I can recover what I lost and NEVER coming back.

lol. What'd you get caught on, loading your portfolio with US financials that were booking imaginary gains on securitized mortgages? The same stocks that the press was hyping as 'cheap'?

[Bazooka Joe]

Nobody knows how deep this hole will go.

Will the stocks rebound from the lowest point? Probably.

Will the stocks rebound to above today's value? Magic eight ball says: Maybe.

(basically, no one can know for sure. For every person that says it'll go back up you'll find another that says it'll go down further)

I'm a fan of going down with the ship personally. Will it work out?

TSX back to break-even for year to date.

Fess up now, who here has lost their nerve and sold equities this year?

And who bought in when the TSX was down to 12,200? I did a bit, but it was just part of my plan already in place to greadually re-adjust my asset allocation, made a while back.

Still looks like some potential bargains left in bank stocks, and maybe buying into US equities. Maybe I'll eat those words later, though!

I'm still doing my best to go down with the ship, but the market just won't co-operate :)

[Blunt]

I did pretty well, as I did pick a few things up.
I was scared off by a second round of drops, which made me hesistate in my buying. But I'm in good position right now and I'm still buying bargains.

[AllWheelDrift]

The majority of my investments are in mutual funds in my RRSPs and I haven't really touched them. They were doing OK even when everyone was panicing. Granted they were down off their highs but my long term return was still very solid. Now they're double digit again.

I've got a very small unregistered portfolio where been doing OK day trading stocks that I want to be long in anyhow thanks to all the volatility. The market has probably beaten me, but it's more interesting than just buying and holding and index ETF and I've done way better than what I'd get in a savings account. The problem is I always seem to sell just a bit too soon, plus now it's getting hard to find bargains.

[stevethewheel]

TSX back to break-even for year to date.

Fess up now, who here has lost their nerve and sold equities this year?

And who bought in when the TSX was down to 12,200? I did a bit, but it was just part of my plan already in place to greadually re-adjust my asset allocation, made a while back.

Still looks like some potential bargains left in bank stocks, and maybe buying into US equities. Maybe I'll eat those words later, though!

I went all-in but too soon as it turned out, I think the TSX was about 12,800 still. I really don't think that we're done with the fallout of the US lenders allowing people to screw themselves over so I'm not feeling good about this recovery as we head in to March. Will likely get out of finance and broad-basket index funds go to resource index funds, bond funds, and a few individual stocks soon.

[cko64]

I did pretty good this year as far. I bought POT & AGU in early January. I just sold them yesterday and realized $11,654.02 gain (commissions in) in less than two months.

Also, the last three sessions rally has turned my portfolio from negative to positive gains.

[sparkplug]

Still looks like some potential bargains left in bank stocks, and maybe buying into US equities. Maybe I'll eat those words later, though!

Two major banks are now yielding dividends over 5%.

[Octavius]

Two major banks are now yielding dividends over 5%.

Just out of curiosity - which two?

[cko64]

Two major banks are now yielding dividends over 5%.
Since no mention of which banks.

I have WM which yield 10.66%

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WM

BAC yield @ 5.59%

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac

C @ 7.84%

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c

All my bank stocks yield over 5%, some over 10%.

[Blunt]

:arrowu: American Banks..... :twisted:

Anyways, one is BMO and I think the other is CM (not too sure.. too lazy to look)...

[advantage21]

:arrowu: American Banks..... :twisted:

Anyways, one is BMO and I think the other is CM (not too sure.. too lazy to look)...

Yup, you got it. BMO and CM are both yielding over 5%.

[questrader]

I did pretty good this year as far. I bought POT & AGU in early January. I just sold them yesterday and realized $11,654.02 gain (commissions in) in less than two months.

People who post their profits are arrogant and insecured...

[pitz]

Since no mention of which banks.

I have WM which yield 10.66%

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WM


I see the yield on that to be zero, or in fact, less than zero. Negative earnings per share.


BAC yield @ 5.59%


A little bit more sustainable, but we'll see when earnings come out.


C @ 7.84%


Try more like 3%, on a trailing basis. If they have earnings at all anymore :).


All my bank stocks yield over 5%, some over 10%

Completely unsustainable. You're gonna be in dividend cut hell for the forseeable future, especially when they start bringing the VIE's on-balance sheet, and the credit card problems start getting really bad.

[Blunt]

So, how's everyone doing with their BMO and CM today??

[kingrukus]

I am predicting that March will be the month of the bear. Get your shorts ready!

[zoober]

Painful week to have finished off my RSP contributions.

[elty]

I am also wondering if I should make the RRSP contribution. I already have enough to lower my tax bracket.

[konfusion666]

So, how's everyone doing with their BMO and CM today??

awesome day today since the last day of the month is when my ESOP program purchases shares... get more bang from my 6%-of-my-paycheque buck... ;)

[hagbard]

Don't know why I just don't pull all my stocks and mutual funds and stay the hell away??? No wins, all losses for years. Thought there might be a comeback where I could at least recover some of my resent losses, but noooooooo......

[konfusion666]

Don't know why I just don't pull all my stocks and mutual funds and stay the hell away??? No wins, all losses for years. Thought there might be a comeback where I could at least recover some of my resent losses, but noooooooo......

maybe you should start investing in pumpkin futures...

[cko64]

People who post their profits are arrogant and insecured...

Why? should i posted that I lost $150,000 from the last tech crash. I am pretty happy that this time around I bought at a dip and make some money. I'll need to make 10 times more before I can recover from the last hit I took.

I found your comment very insecure and arrogant too. If you have nothing good to say, don't say it. Didn't your mommy teach you that, kiddo?

[cko64]

I see the yield on that to be zero, or in fact, less than zero. Negative earnings per share.

...Completely unsustainable. You're gonna be in dividend cut hell for the forseeable future, especially when they start bringing the VIE's on-balance sheet, and the credit card problems start getting really bad.
True. WM already declared to cut dividend by half. So, it will be more like 5.5% yield and not 11% yield going forward. However, I don't believe the yield will be anywhere near zero.

What I am saying is American Banks always give better dividend yields than Canadian Banks. Now, that most American banks/Financial Institutions are in their 52-week low. In the long term, it's better to buy the American Bank stocks than the Canadian ones. And with the higher yields, it's a no brainer.

[gei]

Don't know why I just don't pull all my stocks and mutual funds and stay the hell away??? No wins, all losses for years. Thought there might be a comeback where I could at least recover some of my resent losses, but noooooooo......

Should have invested in some Toronto real estate back when you were predicting all the doom and gloom ;)

On another note I've been having some great runs with some of these inverse ETF's... check out the 3 month return on QID :cheesygri

[pitz]

What I am saying is American Banks always give better dividend yields than Canadian Banks.


But the Canadian banks have far better earnings. TD actually managed to grow their earnings in the midst of this credit crisis, while RY's earnings were only down slightly (17% -- which is pretty good once you remove the trading gains that occurred in Q406).



Now, that most American banks/Financial Institutions are in their 52-week low. In the long term, it's better to buy the American Bank stocks than the Canadian ones. And with the higher yields, it's a no brainer.

I wouldn't be so sure :). And even then, the US banks would have to be alot better than the Canadian banks due to the dividend tax credit given on Canadian bank earnings to Canadian investors.

[pitz]

Just for something to do -- take a look at the 2 or 3 year chart of EWC (Canadian iShares TSX ETF in USD$) against GLD (Gold iShares COMEX trust ETF in USD$).

Note the following:

1) They cross each other on a number of occaisons over the past 3 years.

2) EWC is currently ~20% undervalued relative to GLD, if we assume that there is going to be another chart crossing in the future.

This is pretty bullish for the TSX, and suggests that a 20-25% upleg might not be far away, especially considering the recent runs of both gold and oil, and relative strength in bank earnings.

[hagbard]

Should have invested in some Toronto real estate back when you were predicting all the doom and gloom ;)

On another note I've been having some great runs with some of these inverse ETF's... check out the 3 month return on QID :cheesygri

Which ones, I'm at your mercy. :(

[elty]

People who post their profits are arrogant and insecured...

You were the one who started your own thread, bragging your profit before it get locked... oh irony

[questrader]

Touche... ;)

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/02032008/2/biz-finance-markets-expected-skittish-ahead-boc-rate-announcement-jobs.html

overseas not doing good today

Tomro another bloody day lol

[gordholio]

Didn't even notice.

[questrader]

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/0...ment-jobs.html

overseas not doing good today

Tomro another bloody day lol

How wrong you are! Oversea just follows whatever the US does the trading day before! Think about it for a moment, something would definitely be wrong if the world's current superpower has to follow Oversea's lead in the stock market!

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Well todays a bad day alll banks have been hit
Maybe cuz the .5%cut

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Bank of Montreal profit falls 27 pct on charges

Big losss

[Germack]

Let's hope the DJIA does not fall below 12000 or we might see 10000 soon

[jedijome]

correct me if i'm wrong but wouldn't that be the best time to start funnling small steady amounts into various index funds?

[elty]

err, what is wrong today? Any saddening news other than these?

- Canadian housing start slows
- Some company missed margin call
- Banks not rescuing Ambac
- Record oil price again
- Lower jobless claim in US
- Inflation in US
- Lower retail sales in US

[Shaf]

pretty ****** day today...

[zoober]

My GWL mutual funds run through the employers program are taking a nasty beating. Happy to have most of my money in my self managed stuff.

[questrader]

- Canadian housing start slows
- Some company missed margin call
- Banks not rescuing Ambac
- Record oil price again
- Lower jobless claim in US
- Inflation in US
- Lower retail sales in US

You forgot home foreclosures peaking! Anyways, something tells me the end [of the bear trend] is near...

[zoober]

You forgot home foreclosures peaking! Anyways, something tells me the end [of the bear trend] is near...

Recession is over, back to work! :cheesygri

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

Might pick up some bank stocks....

52 week low most bank stocks
for longterm investors it might be a good opportunity to take a steal

[CheapScotsman]

You forgot home foreclosures peaking! Anyways, something tells me the end [of the bear trend] is near...
From http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080303.wworld0304/BNStory/Front and http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080303.wusecon0303/BNStory/Business

Buffet thinks the US is already into a recession

Inflation is up sharply in the US over the last 3 months (gee I wonder why when the US dollar has been on the skids for such a long time) and what is happening to slow this trend ???? nada

but with the credit crunch and liquidity issues; they are caught between the rock and hard place if they raise interest rates ... right now they are hoping inflation will sort itself out (by magic ???) but if it doesn't (and very soon) then they are going to have to raise interest rates to kill inflation.

and that should just about seriously mangle the US economy for the rest of 2008 and into 2009

[konfusion666]

Blast, now where did I put my time machine... ?!

[questrader]

Tokyo nearing its January low. DJIA / SP500 charts look like they are setting up to test their January lows. I wouldn't say that this is completely over yet. People will scream high & hell with panic sometime next week/the following week. Could be as early as tomorrow. Who knows...

[Bullseye]

The dollar is back up, and the US markets are heading ever lower, so I've started nibbling at picking up some US index funds. Just a bit here and there, averaging in to get my asset allocation up to where I want it for my US holdings.

[jcoltage]

Might pick up some bank stocks....

BMO was butchered today ... going to hold off b/c of the Credit Card Crisis that fast approaches.

but man long term looks good.

[jcoltage]

Japan's Nikkei Down 3% and Aust. is at 3.2% Down from opening .... Where can you run to ...

Asian markets were battered in the morning session Friday with financial firms across the region sold down on escalating credit worries following news of a default at a high-profile U.S. mortgage lender.

RELATED LINKS

* US Dollar Hits New Low Against Euro on Recession Fears
* S&P 500 Index Closes Below January Low
* Euro Stocks End Lower on US Data, Trichet
* Bonds Gain as Fears Over Credit, Housing Take Over

Thornburg Mortgage said it failed to meet a $28 million margin call from JPMorgan Chase, sparking fears the mortgage lender might go bankrupt. Meanwhile, a Dutch-listed affiliate of private equity firm Carlyle Group said it has not been able to meet some margin calls and has received a notice of default. The latest fallouts from the credit crunch rattled U.S. markets with the Dow losing 1.75 percent overnight, and the S&P 500 index closing below its January low of 1,310.

This had a knock on effect in Asia and sent financial counters in Asia reeling. Australia's Babcock & Brown, Macquarie Group, Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, South Korea's Kookmin Bank and Singapore's DBS Group were all sharply lower with Babcock falling as much as 9 percent.

The U.S. dollar hit a record low against the euro after the European Central Bank played down the prospects of an interest rate cut and did not express concerns about the euro's strength. The dollar also fell to a fresh three-year low against the yen
Japanese Yen Spot
JPY-TN

102.73 0.10 +0.1%
BIS
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[JPY-TN 102.73 0.10 (+0.1%)].

Japan's Nikkei 225 Average
NIKKEI 225 INDEX
JP%3bN225

12834.2 -381.22 -2.88%
Tokyo Stock Exchange
[JP;N225 12834.2 -381.22 (-2.88%)] fell over 3 percent, with exporters such as Toyota Motor, Honda Motor and Sony falling on a stronger yen. Japanese companies, especially exporters, in making their forecasts, had assumed a currency level of around 105 yen to the dollar for the year, and the stronger level sparked concerns about earnings outlooks.

South Korea's KOSPI dropped 2 percent led by financials. In addition to Kookmin, Hana Financial, Samsung Securities and Shinhan Financial were all on the decline.

Australian shares fell 3 percent to a six-week low, extending early losses, as news of a default at a high-profile U.S. mortgage lender fueled more credit worries and pushed shares in financial
firms lower.

Singapore's Straits Times Index shed over 2 percent after U.S. markets tumbled on fears that a slowdown in the world's biggest economy would drag on global growth. Financials such as United Overseas Bank and SGX led the losses.

China's Shanghai Composite Index opened over 1 percent lower.

[elty]

US:
-63000 jobs
4.8% unemployment (-0.1%)
+0.3% wage

Canada:
+43000 jobs
5.8% unemployment

Let's see how it goes today.

[Bazooka Joe]

Another fun day in the markets. Wonder what this week will bring?

[zoober]

What's up with the markets today? I figured that we would see some bounce after last week.

Is it all the recent climate change crap coming down on the oil sands?

[Tiberius]

The pain likely isn't over for this week... what we need is a good capitulation day to paint a nice capitulation candle on the index charts. Look for a big down day (gap down open and plunge lower)... above average volume... and a good rebound from the lows to close the day.... then the markets can start to move forward again with some sense of purpose and comfort that a bottom has been put in (for now)...

I was blessed to have some great analysts (one in particular) warn this March 3-15 was a time to be out of the markets... as he had done numerous times before... he correctly knew when to be back in cash.

Now I await a proper signal before getting back in... if the FED does an emergency rate cut in the US... it could turn the markets but technically they will need to bleed down again in the near future and put in a solid capit. candle at some point... it's best if it happens before next Tuesday - and then the FED can cut rates at their scheduled FED meeting and we turn and recover nicely from there.

One last point... this should have been a bigger hit on the US markets because our CDN markets are largely resource based... the hits we are taking on the CDN markets are a concern as it could signal a downturn in the commodity bull we have been enjoying. It was strange to see OIL stocks floundering on a day when oil hit $108/barrel... (and I'm not referring to oil sands stocks where you could link it to oil sands news). Definitely a sign that the mindset is negative out there... a blow-off to the downside is about all that will make me feel comfortable with entering this market.. otherwise.. it's prone to bleed slowly down painting a sawtooth pattern as it goes.

[elty]

The pain likely isn't over for this week... what we need is a good capitulation day to paint a nice capitulation candle on the index charts. Look for a big down day (gap down open and plunge lower)... above average volume... and a good rebound from the lows to close the day.... then the markets can start to move forward again with some sense of purpose and comfort that a bottom has been put in (for now)...

I was blessed to have some great analysts (one in particular) warn this March 3-15 was a time to be out of the markets... as he had done numerous times before... he correctly knew when to be back in cash.

Now I await a proper signal before getting back in... if the FED does an emergency rate cut in the US... it could turn the markets but technically they will need to bleed down again in the near future and put in a solid capit. candle at some point... it's best if it happens before next Tuesday - and then the FED can cut rates at their scheduled FED meeting and we turn and recover nicely from there.

One last point... this should have been a bigger hit on the US markets because our CDN markets are largely resource based... the hits we are taking on the CDN markets are a concern as it could signal a downturn in the commodity bull we have been enjoying. It was strange to see OIL stocks floundering on a day when oil hit $108/barrel... (and I'm not referring to oil sands stocks where you could link it to oil sands news). Definitely a sign that the mindset is negative out there... a blow-off to the downside is about all that will make me feel comfortable with entering this market.. otherwise.. it's prone to bleed slowly down painting a sawtooth pattern as it goes.

I don't think dropping down the rate will help. The rate drop so far does not help much to drop the rate on mortgage and other commercial lending. Money simply flows from the equity market to commodity market.

I am not an economist, but I think the Fed will print large amount of money and exchange them with all those illiquid commercial paper from banks, or inject them in some way. We will probably see further devaluation of the dollar with their inflation rate increase, but nowhere near the level of hyperinflation. Many banks (worldwide) are actually unaffected/less affected by the sub prime mess, and they may invest in US smaller banks if they can improve their balance sheets. US also has a chance if they pull out Iraq fast enough, and spend all the money locally instead. The money they spend on Iraq every year is probably enough for several of their "stimulus" plans.

Finally, when there light in the tunnel money will flock back to the equity market as their stock is a bargain. At the end, fed save the corporations, and their citizens suffer from losing purchase power.

[questrader]

Corporations are more worthy of saving than the individual, for corporations are where most of the tax revenue$$$$$$$$$ are generated.

[Thalo]

I was blessed to have some great analysts (one in particular)

Would that be Gartman?

[jcoltage]

Hey Guy a little secret

World Central Banks and joining together to bail out the US dollar and flood the mortgage market with liquid cash

Be warned BOC is going in with 6 other central Banks to fund the Fin. Market with cash

BOC - March 20 - 2 Billion Dollars
US Fed - March 18? or Today that the big question close to 20 Billion
BOE (England)
BOJ (Japan
Switzerland
and 2 others ( no word on the Euro-Zone joining in)

they are all hiding out in Florida today so .... Going in on the Euro Dollar on the dip .. wish me luck


Ok - looks like word is slowly leaking its going to be a Green day on the Dow - even if Oil is at 110...

[konfusion666]

where are you getting this information from?

[jcoltage]

where are you getting this information from?

my source beat Returns- CNBC - anyone by 3 hours before the 9:30 market opening announcement and they still don't even have as much info as I have posted...

they are still running updates as they gather info...
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1156209720080311
UPDATE 1-Toronto stocks up 230 points on cenbank action
Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:04am EDT


By Jonathan Spicer

TORONTO, March 11 (Reuters) - The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index shot out of the starting gate on Tuesday, emboldened by a joint plan by the Bank of Canada and other central banks to inject liquidity into faltering world credit markets.

Canadian banks, which have lagged the overall TSX so far this year, led the charge with heavyweights Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) logging big gains.

Materials and energy shares also jumped, partly due to bullish commodity prices.

"Central banks have shown us that they will step up to the plate in order to alleviate some of the concerns," said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada.

The S&P/TSX composite index .GSPTSE rose 236.62 points, or 1.8 percent, to 13,241.71, regaining much of the previous session's steep decline.

U.S. and European equities also climbed after the Federal Reserve said it would work in tandem with other central banks to prop up credit markets, and accept a broader range of securities as collateral. For details, see: [nN11554482] and [nN11555322]

"The fact is that these steps are band-aids that reassure in the short term but do not resolve the central need for Americans to recapitalize their financial markets," Ing said.


wait till they find out about the over night meeting in Florida .. they will freak ... shh rfd secret.. keep it on the down low

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

bmo.to
geting beat down couple days in row lol
going to 1 year lows

[thefleet]

my source beat Returns- CNBC - anyone by 3 hours before the 9:30 market opening announcement and they still don't even have as much info as I have posted...

they are still running updates as they gather info...
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1156209720080311



wait till they find out about the over night meeting in Florida .. they will freak ... shh rfd secret.. keep it on the down low

it was announced around 8:30-9ish on BNN if anyone was wondering, market reacted in response at the opening, also as you can see by the upward jerk by the European markets.

[jcoltage]

it was announced around 8:30-9ish on BNN if anyone was wondering, market reacted in response at the opening, also as you can see by the upward jerk by the European markets.

Dam I don't got BBN ... ok I guess everyone knows ... it was a leaked email that hit the internet at around 6 am ... from Bank of England to Bank of Japan confirming a luncheon today in Florida - the whole F/X market was going nuts .. no one can make out the f/x market today. Thomson Financial leaked it at 6:30 am

[zoober]

Looks like the Bank of Canada is putting in 4 billion.


http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080311.wbankofcda0311/BNStory/robNews/home

[CheapScotsman]

Me thinks its not a good sign that that collective governments financial arms (Boc, Fed, etc) have to intervene so much and so frequently over the last N month to try and keep propping up the markets / economy.

[konfusion666]

Me thinks its not a good sign that that collective governments financial arms (Boc, Fed, etc) have to intervene so much and so frequently over the last N month to try and keep propping up the markets / economy.

Yeah, wouldn't they eventually just "run out" and stop doing this?

[elty]

Yeah, wouldn't they eventually just "run out" and stop doing this?

Nationalizing failing bank sometimes is unavoidable. Sometimes a large bank failure can cause much more damage than the effort required to rescue it.

The fed can just keep printing money.

[ibanker]

beautiful day today

[zoober]

Yeah, huge day. Some of my large caps shot up over 5%.

Wonder if we'll see a bunch of profit taking tomorrow and continue the slide.

[CheapScotsman]

Nationalizing failing bank sometimes is unavoidable. Sometimes a large bank failure can cause much more damage than the effort required to rescue it.

The fed can just keep printing money.
Printing money without the corresponding increase in production devalues your currency ... and that raises inflation (as imports become more expensive) ... and that leads to inflation with a rise in interest rates which kills both the stock market and economy ... Nobody wins if they print more money. Better to take the lumps of a bank failure.

[ibanker]

i dont think itll be profit taking... more like loss reducing ;)

[jcoltage]

another insider trader talk that flying is the only reason why the Fed is putting so much money is b/c Fin. Firms like Bear Sterns are so close to going under b/c no one wants their A class loans...

look at BSC stock chart only bank to keep going down but went up in afternoon trading ... they say its going to hit 30 bucks real soon.

Inside myth - it closed above but its going down man RUN!

[thefleet]

http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=149167

[jcoltage]

not a stock tip .. "trader talk"

but watch out for bank stocks guys like Bear Stearns ... looks like another green day.

Also it is being downgraded by 2 ibank yesterday ... from 68 to 55 and 50

[Sylvestre]

Inside myth - it closed above but its going down man RUN!
sounds like a tip :cheesygri

anyways, gold did it; and appears to be the only thing keeping the TSX neutral

[zoober]

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5ip1Xj690UDmwa3XZLxYHxPNs375g


"We've reached the end of the beginning of the credit crunch"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[questrader]

Too bad the market already discounted the worst possible scenario this Monday. The market indices are on course to recovery. But over the next few weeks, you'll be reading "horror" stories on financial web sites about how we're already in a recession, etc., not unlike those "horror" stories you heard immediately after the Feds made the 0.75 rate cut in January. Of course, we all knew that those "horror" stories back in Jan were meant to scare retail investors away from the early phase of a mini-bull correction, so that others may profit by getting in early. I call for another mini-bull run soon!

[elty]

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5ip1Xj690UDmwa3XZLxYHxPNs375g


"We've reached the end of the beginning of the credit crunch"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Unfortunately looks like he is correct.

Now second stage: The Great Bailout.

[hagbard]

I'm pretty convinced at this point we're headed for an economic meltdown. Not sure where to put money, I've already emailed my "advisor" that I'll be selling garbage she's told me to hold tight on, and I'm looking at precious metals and energy funds. If that doesn't work, I'm putting everything into a GIC and never going back into the markets.

[questrader]

Oh, come'on, I hear the market is anticipating another 75-100 basis points cut by the Fed next Tuesday. I'm sure that will spark a short-lived rally. Also, I'll laugh so hard if Bear Sterns does an about face on Monday, like E-Trade did on the day after intitutions shaved off as much as 60% from its stock price by bouncing 1/2 way back to where it was before the crash!

The same 1/2 arse about face happened the day after Sept 11, 2001. Not to mention the same thing happened after the huge ~-10%-in-one-day market crash in 1989.

[jcoltage]

another insider trader talk that flying is the only reason why the Fed is putting so much money is b/c Fin. Firms like Bear Sterns are so close to going under b/c no one wants their A class loans...

look at BSC stock chart only bank to keep going down but went up in afternoon trading ... they say its going to hit 30 bucks real soon.

Inside myth - it closed above but its going down man RUN!

BAHAHAHA I told you to run MOFO - down 53% since I said this 48 hours before the "no cash" crisis - everything I said came true including the Fed bail out

sounds like a tip :cheesygri


ok maybe the tip came true ... but when you got info might as well spill it.:cheesygri I got 2 more "trader talk" info but its not that big... will see when the markets open to see if there is anything to it ..

Oh BTW - BSC will be offered 10 bucks or 15 bucks a share in a buy out by chase/ JP morgan ...


oh yea good luck on Visa ;)

[Igor01]

Oh BTW - BSC will be offered 10 bucks or 15 bucks a share in a buy out by chase/ JP morgan ...

JPM is paying $2 per share. Out-friggin-standing. I wonder who's next.

[goobelygoop]

Looks like the thread is being prepped for tomorrow ;)

[jcoltage]

JPM is paying $2 per share. Out-friggin-standing. I wonder who's next.

OMG

JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns in a deal valued at $236.2 million--or $2 a share--a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most venerable investment banks.

The last-minute buyout was aimed at averting a Bear Stearns bankruptcy and a spreading crisis of confidence in the global financial system.

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government swiftly approved the all-stock deal, showing the urgency of completing the deal before world markets opened.

looks like I am going to be up all night - Taiwan opens in 2 mins lets see the crash.

[jcoltage]

my online fantasy portfolio is so fu*k

BSC $30.00 $49,710.00 Sell 1657 pending / Cancel 9:30 am NY time !!

Taiwan -2% out the gate
Singapore -1.5%
Tokyo - 3%
Dow Futures - 2%
Gold $1021


BSC is not reporting its Q1 rating moving it from Monday to next week ... 85 years of independence gone ...

[goobelygoop]

my online fantasy portfolio is so fu*k

BSC $30.00 $49,710.00 Sell 1657 pending / Cancel 9:30 am NY time !!

Taiwan -2% out the gate
Singapore -1.5%
Tokyo - 3%
Dow Futures - 2%
Gold $1021


BSC is not reporting its Q1 rating moving it from Monday to next week ... 85 years of independence gone ...


LOL thank God it's a fantasy portfolio!

At least you aren't the only goofball who bought "low" at $30 on Friday :cheesygri

[brunes]

Man I hope C crashes tomorrow, would like to pickup some of that at a bargain price....

[asdfvcx]

TSX 200 down today...:(

this is where people start to jump off the 5th floor balconies. - 1929 anyone
Yawn.

Currently the Asian exchanges are down about 3%. You're speculating about a drop on the TSX of less than 2%. And you compare this to 1929? Kind of silly, don't you think?

[jcoltage]

Yawn.

Currently the Asian exchanges are down about 3%. You're speculating about a drop on the TSX of less than 2%. And you compare this to 1929? Kind of silly, don't you think?

2 banks are about to collapse
BSC and Lehmans

Citi banks is right now in swim or sink ... and no one knows whats going on there ...

Gold is up 450% in 8 months ..

US dollars is heavily inflated and is in the toilet

Oil prices are at an all time high and it is not even Gas Season ..

And your Asian markets - lets see in 12 mins when Hong Kong Opens what their reaction is .. SK is down nearly 4% and that is not as heavily tied to the American economy as HK

The only reason why the TSX is going down 200 points today is because its got a lot of Gold and Oil Stocks... if they did not have this we would be really screwed.

When was the last time MAJOR Banks have failed- 1929


AND the FED is leaking that it is going to cut by at least 75 points ... I see 100 more like it ..

and I would suggest you take a look at the 2 year t-bill what is it at ??


Ah the market is betting at 83% that on the 18th the Fed Rate cut is going to be 100 points -

[goobelygoop]

I really don't think this is a PANIC situation -- only those who panic ultimately lose at the end of the day.

(and btw, Gold isn't up 450% in 8 months...maybe 8 years ;) )

[jcoltage]

I really don't think this is a PANIC situation -- only those who panic ultimately lose at the end of the day.

(and btw, Gold isn't up 450% in 8 months...maybe 8 years ;) )

my bad $$450 not percent .. I am just over joyed I got out of BSC .. my bad

and I am in panic cause I could have being murdered 120+ to 2 dollars sounds like bre-x all over again.

Hong Kong - 4.2% on opening

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/Video/CNBC_Live/player/cnbc_live.html

[rosebud]

Sell everything!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dump dump dump!!!!!

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

gold is at 1030 lol

[elty]

I'm pretty convinced at this point we're headed for an economic meltdown. Not sure where to put money, I've already emailed my "advisor" that I'll be selling garbage she's told me to hold tight on, and I'm looking at precious metals and energy funds. If that doesn't work, I'm putting everything into a GIC and never going back into the markets.

Looks like we have RFD server melt down first. :D

[elty]

Oh, come'on, I hear the market is anticipating another 75-100 basis points cut by the Fed next Tuesday. I'm sure that will spark a short-lived rally. Also, I'll laugh so hard if Bear Sterns does an about face on Monday, like E-Trade did on the day after intitutions shaved off as much as 60% from its stock price by bouncing 1/2 way back to where it was before the crash!

The same 1/2 arse about face happened the day after Sept 11, 2001. Not to mention the same thing happened after the huge ~-10%-in-one-day market crash in 1989.

O RLY?

[questrader]

Wow, gaping gap down... Now's the time (or rather Friday was the time) to be 100% in cash.

[ibanker]

im soooo glad i didnt become a fund manager right now

[Sylvestre]

just remember, if you are young, this is a great opportunity to get in early and average down.

[funkylist]

JPMorgan Chase said late on Sunday it would buy Bear Stearns for just $2 (U.S.) a share – more than 90 per cent below its price at Friday's close.

Wow did JPMorgan get a great deal or a bunch of worthless assets?

[Shaf]

really bad start...

[jcoltage]

The real joke is where they got this 2.xx number from ..

and as for E-Trade it fell from 10 to 3 and went up to 5.50 at most in that week of trading .... then just hovered around 4.xx.

no where did it go above 6.xx so it could not go up 60% - man I wish I bought gold last week or even the VIX cause that is a gold mine these days ... up 10%

oh and Wells Fargo is now officially bigger than CITI Group!! in terms of Market Cap

[asdfvcx]

Wow, gaping gap down... Now's the time (or rather Friday was the time) to be 100% in cash.
I know. The US market is down a whole 1% so far today. The Canadian is down a massive 1.5%. How will we every survive?!?!?


Seriously people, you can't predict stock market crashes. Its unpredictability is part of the nature of a crash.


If you're freaking out it means your asset allocation is too risky, and you should reevaluate your true risk tolerance.

If you have money in the market that you are going to need in the short term, it probably shouldn't have been there to start with. And if you don't need this money for many years, all of this can be ignored.

[hagbard]

Wow, gaping gap down... Now's the time (or rather Friday was the time) to be 100% in cash.

Weren't you the guy saying "wait till Tuesday"?

[Bullseye]

I know. The US market is down a whole 1% so far today. The Canadian is down a massive 1.5%. How will we every survive?!?!?


Seriously people, you can't predict stock market crashes. Its unpredictability is part of the nature of a crash.


If you're freaking out it means your asset allocation is too risky, and you should reevaluate your true risk tolerance.

If you have money in the market that you are going to need in the short term, it probably shouldn't have been there to start with. And if you don't need this money for many years, all of this can be ignored.

Amen to that. I've been starting to wonder if all these nervous nellies posting here are actually senior citizens needing to cash out soon, or day traders.

If you're young, you just sit tight and wait it out, keep buying to average down. This isn't the first market shakedown, it isn't even a severe one up to this point, and it certainly won't be the last one.

[Bullseye]

Just to provide some perspective here, these are the TSX index returns for the past five years;

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
9.0 16.4 23.0 13.5 25.9 -12.8

So if you were in the market during that period, you should have made some very decent returns*. The downside to that is that there is a risk to it, you could have years like this one thus far.

* Hagbard aside ;)

[hagbard]

Called and sold my largest positions (MD Growth and MD Dividend) and now considering RBC Global Precious Metals and RBC Global Energy as replacements. If the currencies were not even more at risk for decline, I'd just move everything into GICs. The only "safe haven" I can think of is buying lots of food and storing it. And many a house (which I sold).

[hagbard]

Just to provide some perspective here, these are the TSX index returns for the past five years;

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
9.0 16.4 23.0 13.5 25.9 -12.8

So if you were in the market during that period, you should have made some very decent returns*. The downside to that is that there is a risk to it, you could have years like this one thus far.

* Hagbard aside ;)

Dude, the sky really is going to fall, its just a matter of when. How long did it take the market to recover (controlled for inflation) after 1929?

If you're young, you just sit tight and wait it out, keep buying to average down. This isn't the first market shakedown, it isn't even a severe one up to this point, and it certainly won't be the last one.

Bullseye, I'm 50, I don't have the luxury of hoping things will work themselves out. I've already lost way more in my RRSP through the years than I've ever gained, and the wost of it following my various "advisors" advice. I've probably put $200k + into RRSPs, I have less than $80K now. Some investment the markets have been.

[Bullseye]

Called and sold my largest positions (MD Growth and MD Dividend) and now considering RBC Global Precious Metals and RBC Global Energy as replacements. If the currencies were not even more at risk for decline, I'd just move everything into GICs. The only "safe haven" I can think of is buying lots of food and storing it. And many a house (which I sold).

You're going to buy into commodities after they've just gone through a massive run up? And sell your equities after they've just plummeted to do so?

I'm starting to get a sense of why you haven't had much luck with investing thus far. Sell low, buy high! :lol:

[hagbard]

You're going to buy into commodities after they've just gone through a massive run up? And sell your equities after they've just plummeted to do so?

I'm starting to get a sense of why you haven't had much luck with investing thus far. Sell low, buy high! :lol:

I bought Nortel low ($34) and watched it go lower till now its worth nothing. I've held most of what i started with on the advice of advisors, and watched everything just go lower. The only good investment advice I got in thirty years was to buy TD, that I made money on.

[Bullseye]

Dude, the sky really is going to fall, its just a matter of when. How long did it take the market to recover (controlled for inflation) after 1929?

There was a massive run up leading up that crash, though. The markets in Canada and the US have averaged around 7% over the past 100+ years, that's the more important point.

Bullseye, I'm 50, I don't have the luxury of hoping things will work themselves out. I've already lost way more in my RRSP through the years than I've ever gained, and the wost of it following my various "advisors" advice. I've probably put $200k + into RRSPs, I have less than $80K now. Some investment the markets have been.

I'd blame terrible advice (or panic selling and buying as you're looking to do now), not the market, for your woes. The Cdn market has averaged 8% over the past ten years (which includes the tech crash).

[hagbard]

There was a massive run up leading up that crash, though. The markets in Canada and the US have averaged around 7% over the past 100+ years, that's the more important point.



I'd blame terrible advice (or panic selling and buying as you're looking to do now), not the market, for your woes. The Cdn market has averaged 8% over the past ten years (which includes the tech crash).

Trouble with that theory is that I've held, not sold. I've sold very rarely and only after the investment went nearly to 10% of its initial investment. That leaves "terrible advice". What's your advice? Can't be any worse than what I've gotten so far.

[jcoltage]

anyone got any comments on buying Citi below 19.50 right now

[Bullseye]

Trouble with that theory is that I've held, not sold. I've sold very rarely and only after the investment went nearly to 10% of its initial investment. That leaves "terrible advice". What's your advice? Can't be any worse than what I've gotten so far.

You say you're 50 and have no time, I'd argue the opposite, you have easily 20 years left to wait for market rebounds, before you would be out of equities due to age. Many retirees hold equities, sometimes even a large percentage, well into advanced old age. It's a hedge against inflation, and a safer one than something like gold or other commodities. Inflation would eat away much of the returns of your 'safe' GIC's and bonds.

You should look closely at your current holdings, check the ratings on every fund you hold, and dump the garbage. You don't strike me as investor that should be holding individual stocks, so you should consider index funds or highly rated managed funds for all your investments. Restructure what you have, but leave asset allocation intact, if it still fits with your risk profile.

[asdfvcx]

anyone got any comments on buying Citi below 19.50 right now
It might go up. It might go down. It might stay steady.

And please stop violating the rules of the forum by giving or asking for stock tips.

[Igor01]

anyone got any comments on buying Citi below 19.50 right now

I'd steer clear of the US Financials, we definetely haven't seen the worst of it. Here's a great read on the BSC fiasco and the prospect of financial markets: CLICK ME (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558)

[funkylist]

If you're young, you just sit tight and wait it out, keep buying to average down.

I've heard this many times, but by the time some young person is ready to retire 20 -30 yrs from now, who knows what the market will look like. Even big name stocks can collapse within 20-30 yrs or in a few days because of market changes or major scandals or what ever.

[Bullseye]

I've heard this many times, but by the time some young person is ready to retire 20 -30 yrs from now, who knows what the market will look like. Even big name stocks can collapse within 20-30 yrs or in a few days because of market changes or major scandals or what ever.

That's why you diversify, so that even if one company, or a handful of them, go down, it won't have a large impact on your holdings.

[ZenOps]

Yeesh, look at Nortel. What happened? It down to below the low point back in 2002 before the reverse split.

Yeah the Bear Sterns news is hitting. Its not impacting so bad this Monday, but the full realization of what has happened my start to show in the markets by Friday.

The bigwigs expect at least one of the other big bank lenders in the sub-prime fiasco to fall, possibly losing 1000% or all of its value overnight. Lucky for Bear, Chase 'pity' bought them for $2.

[Igor01]

Lucky for Bear, Chase 'pity' bought them for $2.


Wasn't pity, apparently JPM had no choice, they had the most to loose from BSC collapse. JPM has the most derivatives exposure among the US financials and would have probably go down with the Bear Stearn ship if it were allowed to sink.

[Igor01]

That's why you diversify, so that even if one company, or a handful of them, go down, it won't have a large impact on your holdings.

Blows my mind how people still cling to the "diversify and hold for a long time" mantra when the proverbial sh1t is clearly hitting the proverbial fan. Yeah yeah, buy low and sell high. Mate, I hope you haven't tried to pick the bottom and bought the US financials since they are "low". They are going right through the "bottom" this time.

[asdfvcx]

Blows my mind how people still cling to the "diversify and hold for a long time" mantra when the proverbial sh1t is clearly hitting the proverbial fan.
If it's so clear, why is the market only down 2-3% today?

Please prove to me that you know more than the market. The academic evidence is overwhelming that a single person doesn't.

[johnxsi]

Called and sold my largest positions (MD Growth and MD Dividend) and now considering RBC Global Precious Metals and RBC Global Energy as replacements. If the currencies were not even more at risk for decline, I'd just move everything into GICs. The only "safe haven" I can think of is buying lots of food and storing it. And many a house (which I sold).

That's ironic, I sold all of my Gold last week and am starting to pile up on financials.

On the upside, we'll cancel out each other's losses, so no mater which way things go we'll be ok. :D

[Bullseye]

Blows my mind how people still cling to the "diversify and hold for a long time" mantra when the proverbial sh1t is clearly hitting the proverbial fan. Yeah yeah, buy low and sell high. Mate, I hope you haven't tried to pick the bottom and bought the US financials since they are "low". They are going right through the "bottom" this time.

Buy and hold has worked well for me so far, and the current market doesn't make me lose any sleep, so I'll just keep doing what I'm doing.

[Igor01]

If it's so clear, why is the market only down 2-3% today?

Please prove to me that you know more than the market. The academic evidence is overwhelming that a single person doesn't.

When the subprime hit the markets didn't go down the toilet either, because it was "limited" and "contained", "30Bn is a drop in the ocean" etc. Here we are 6 months and "up to $1T" potential writedowns later. The Fed is acting in a manner not seen since the Great Depression, obviously they know the true extent of the problem at hand or they wouldn't be undertaking extreme measures and risking destroying investor confidence.

There are only two options on the table - hyperinflate their way out of total credit market gridlock or allow the financial markets to seize up and banking institutions to fail. We both know which one they have picked. They will destroy the USD in the process and there's no guarantee that all these desperate measures will even work.

Conclusion - stay away from US commercial and investment banks, at least until the smoke clears and we get somewhat better idea what are things going to look like. Otherwise you risk loading up on Nortel at $30 so to speak.

[Bazooka Joe]

Blows my mind how people still cling to the "diversify and hold for a long time" mantra when the proverbial sh1t is clearly hitting the proverbial fan. Yeah yeah, buy low and sell high. Mate, I hope you haven't tried to pick the bottom and bought the US financials since they are "low". They are going right through the "bottom" this time.

I don't see how anything is hitting any fan. Historically, the markets have gone up long term. In the past we've had larger single day drops, or even single week drops. They have historically survived. Why would this instance be any different (on a long term 10+ year scale)?

[Igor01]

Buy and hold has worked well for me so far, and the current market doesn't make me lose any sleep, so I'll just keep doing what I'm doing.

No doubt, I had a good ride too, but like with everything in the investment world, it's all about timing. Today may very well be like early 1929 all over again, one would be ill-advised to expect the same results from a completely different situation.

[Igor01]

I don't see how anything is hitting any fan. Historically, the markets have gone up long term. In the past we've had larger single day drops, or even single week drops. They have historically survived. Why would this instance be any different (on a long term 10+ year scale)?

The situation is unprecedented in many ways just see this chart for example:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BOGNONBR_Max_630_378.png

I also highly recommend this article: CLICK (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558)

[goobelygoop]

Buy and hold has worked well for me so far, and the current market doesn't make me lose any sleep, so I'll just keep doing what I'm doing.

Not to sound like a pessimist, but the "current market" (i.e. relatively mild drops of 2%, small rebounds etc.) will eventually see much more volitile swings and bigger plunges if this credit crisis continues -- the PPT can only do so much before everything tanks ;)

[jcoltage]

It might go up. It might go down. It might stay steady.

And please stop violating the rules of the forum by giving or asking for stock tips.

What stock tip - clearly I am asking for comments - and as for my `warnings` that was trader talk not a tip at all.

[funkylist]

In the past we've had larger single day drops, or even single week drops.

Unfortunately today is not over as yet, currently the TSX is sitting around -381.690

[Bazooka Joe]

Unfortunately today is not over as yet, currently the TSX is sitting around -381.690

Chances are most following this thread are aware of these two things, but what's the point? This isn't even the biggest one day loss in this year, let alone the tech bubble burst. And guess what, we survived both of those. The TSX is still (as of 1:30PM EST) 5.7% above what it was last time it "crashed" on January 21.

Edit: AM? PM? What's the difference :lol: - corrected now

Also, if anyone wants to see the reaction from January 21, it starts on Page 31 (http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=469115&page=31)

Another edit, just the kind of day I'm having:

It actually starts on page 28 (http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=469115&page=28).

[hagbard]

Chances are most following this thread are aware of these two things, but what's the point? This isn't even the biggest one day loss in this year, let alone the tech bubble burst. And guess what, we survived both of those. The TSX is still (as of 1:30AM EST) 5.7% above what it was last time it "crashed" on January 21.

My portfolio is at least 10% below where it was Jan. 21.

[AllWheelDrift]

My portfolio is at least 10% below where it was Jan. 21.
I guess you figured you could beat the market...

[Sylvestre]

What stock tip - clearly I am asking for comments - and as for my `warnings` that was trader talk not a tip at all.

stop splitting hairs. "comments" = tips. trader talk = tip. The intent of the rules are simple: to not have what happens on all other boards, where people come on talking/asking about individual stocks/funds/ideas and if they should/shouldn't invest.
There are a lot of other boards where you can get "comments" and provide "talk".

Blows my mind how people still cling to the "diversify and hold for a long time" mantra when the proverbial sh1t is clearly hitting the proverbial fan. Yeah yeah, buy low and sell high. Mate, I hope you haven't tried to pick the bottom and bought the US financials since they are "low". They are going right through the "bottom" this time.

People hold to that mantra because it's worked. Sure, if you held on to a single stock, sure, you can lose everything. But if you had an index post the dot-com, you've recovered well. That's the ultimate diversification & hold. And who says anything about timing and buying at the bottom. Dollar-cost-averaging takes care of not worrying about timing.
Sure, it's boring but history's shown it works in a bear and definitely works in a recession/correction/melt-down.

[Bullseye]

My portfolio is at least 10% below where it was Jan. 21.

Even down 400 points today, the TSX is still more than 5% higher than it was on Jan 21st.

No idea what's in your portfolio, though.

[jcoltage]

anyways whatever we lose today we will break even tomr when the Feds lower interest rates. looks like the TSX is on a rally - lets see how long that lasts

[hagbard]

I guess you figured you could beat the market...

Any of you actually read what I said?

[Ebola]

My portfolio is at least 10% below where it was Jan. 21.

Didn't you just sell low to buy into commodities that have already made their big gains?

[Asun]

For some, volatile market is great for day/momentum trading. You can really make a killing (or get killed) if you ride the wild swings these days. There are ultra (2x) long and short ETFs specially made for these kind of days.

[hagbard]

Even down 400 points today, the TSX is still more than 5% higher than it was on Jan 21st.

No idea what's in your portfolio, though.

Without going into details of my entire portfolio, for example, the MD Growth I sold today was at $10.53 on Jan 31st, for a total value of $26,599 (it was $28,300 on Dec 31 btw). On Friday it was $9.04 for a total value of $24,608 (there was a reinvested dividend in Feb). The rest isn't much better.

[hagbard]

Didn't you just sell low to buy into commodities that have already made their big gains?

Just sold a fund I've held for three years with losses, and so far have bought nothing.

[Bullseye]

Without going into details of my entire portfolio, for example, the MD Growth I sold today was at $10.53 on Jan 31st, for a total value of $26,599 (it was $28,300 on Dec 31 btw). On Friday it was $9.04 for a total value of $24,608 (there was a reinvested dividend in Feb). The rest isn't much better.

That fund has a 5 year average return of 7.1%, and a 15 and 20 year average a little better than that;

http://www.globefund.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/fund?style=globe_eq&id=18036&gf_uid=globeandmail.gf.02521728454

It's mostly foreign holdings, which explains the double whammy in more recent results, with the run up of the Canadian dollar and the global sell off. Currency fluctuations tend to become meaningless with time, and the fund would likely return to its historical average given some time. It's not a stellar fund (3/5 stars), but it has a long history of decent returns.

[hagbard]

That fund has a 5 year average return of 7.1%, and a 15 and 20 year average a little better than that;

http://www.globefund.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/fund?style=globe_eq&id=18036&gf_uid=globeandmail.gf.02521728454

It's mostly foreign holdings, which explains the double whammy in more recent results, with the run up of the Canadian dollar and the global sell off. Currency fluctuations tend to become meaningless with time, and the fund would likely return to its historical average given some time. It's not a stellar fund (3/5 stars), but it has a long history of decent returns.

Not for me it didn't. What would you consider a good five star replacement?

[AllWheelDrift]

Any of you actually read what I said?
Yup, I sure did and I stand by what I said. I can only assume you bought the funds you did because you thought they would do better than the index (beat the market) because otherwise you would have bought low cost index funds.

[zoober]

This must be really hurting huge offshore investors that have been dumping billions into American companies.

Just thinking of the $7.5 billion rescue investment the Abu Dhabi fund gave to Citi back in November. Between the currency drops and the stock going from about $30 that day to $18 today, they've taken quite the bath.

[hagbard]

Yup, I sure did and I stand by what I said. I can only assume you bought the funds you did because you thought they would do better than the index (beat the market) because otherwise you would have bought low cost index funds.

I bought all the MD stuff because I'd moved my account there and that was what I was advised to buy. I wasn't trying to "beat" anything...I wanted to make a decent return for my retirement. You should stop trying to make claims about other people's motives, you're clearly projecting.

[elty]

I bought all the MD stuff because I'd moved my account there and that was what I was advised to buy. I wasn't trying to "beat" anything...I wanted to make a decent return for my retirement. You should stop trying to make claims about other people's motives, you're clearly projecting.

Sorry to hear about your loss. Did you just purchase RRSP not many years ago? Your adviser seems to be very fishy, what did he recommend you to buy? It is actually difficult to lose 60% of your profolio in just a few years. My dfather also lose a bit on his RRSP, but nowhere near 60%.

[jcoltage]

My new plan - Ditch the Green go Black and Gold

[questrader]

You guys notice the discrepancy between the TSX's fall and the Dow Jones today?

Your logic would tell you that the DJIA should plunge as much on such Bearish (pun intended!) news, if not more, than the TSX!

You guys also notice why gold was beaten down to ~$1005 after it climbed as high as ~$1030!

The only logical conclusion is that somebody was preventing the DJIA from free fall, and at the same time beating down gold to give the temporary false impression of investor confidence. And that somebody operated on the US stock market and not the Canadian market, which is why the TSX went down 300 points today, while the Dow finished in the positive.

Such a somebody exists! It/they are called the Plunge Protection Team (a.k.a. Working Group on Financial Markets)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

DON'T YOU JUST LOVE HOW EVERYTHING IS MANIPULATED?

[Bazooka Joe]

You guys notice the discrepancy between the TSX's fall and the Dow Jones today?

Your logic would tell you that the DJIA should plunge as much on such Bearish (pun intended!) news, if not more, than the TSX!

You guys also notice why gold was beaten down to $1000 after it climbed as high as ~$1030!

The only logical conclusion is that somebody was preventing the DJIA from free fall, and at the same time beating down gold to give the temporary false impression of investor confidence. And that somebody operated on the US stock market and not the Canadian market, which is why the TSX went down 300 points today.

Such a somebody exists! It's called the Plunge Protection Team!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

I'm skeptical that the government would have enough liquid assets to pull this off.

[questrader]

Does it have to be "their own" liquid asset? Why can't they also accomplish their goal using somebody else's asset (much like you provoke your enemies to annihilate each other, why can't the same thing be done by said Team)?

[thefleet]

You guys notice the discrepancy between the TSX's fall and the Dow Jones today?

Your logic would tell you that the DJIA should plunge as much on such Bearish (pun intended!) news, if not more, than the TSX!

You guys also notice why gold was beaten down to ~$1005 after it climbed as high as ~$1030!

The only logical conclusion is that somebody was preventing the DJIA from free fall, and at the same time beating down gold to give the temporary false impression of investor confidence. And that somebody operated on the US stock market and not the Canadian market, which is why the TSX went down 300 points today, while the Dow finished in the positive.

Such a somebody exists! It/they are called the Plunge Protection Team (a.k.a. Working Group on Financial Markets)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

DON'T YOU JUST LOVE HOW EVERYTHING IS MANIPULATED?

JPMorgan is part of the Dow, which is why it ended green.

[hagbard]

Anyone think buying Precious Metal funds is a bad idea right now?

BTW, to the poster who commented on my losing 60%, it was more like 10% over the year. But I have consistently lost money in most years over the past twenty, so 60% could be close to the figure.

And that the markets are being manipulated, I think that goes without saying.

[zoober]

Anyone think buying Precious Metal funds is a bad idea right now?



Probably not a good idea, you're basically buying at or near the top. Everyone is flocking to gold, there is a good chance that it won't experienced the same crazy returns that we've seen over the last year.

[hagbard]

Probably not a good idea, you're basically buying at or near the top. Everyone is flocking to gold, there is a good chance that it won't experienced the same crazy returns that we've seen over the last year.

I'm thinking so long as people don't have confidence in the US dollar, gold won't loose its shine. I see no reason, given current events, that would give people confidence in the US dollar.

[jcoltage]

JPMorgan is part of the Dow, which is why it ended green.

Yup - JPMorgan saved the market today....
Japan opened up 0.07%

[Bullseye]

I'm thinking so long as people don't have confidence in the US dollar, gold won't loose its shine. I see no reason, given current events, that would give people confidence in the US dollar.

Chasing the latest hot ticket rarely works out well. Given your track record on trying to time markets (I recall that you sold your Victoria house to rent 2-3 years ago, expecting the big crash), I'd say just pick a long term strategy and stick with it.

[jcoltage]

Goldman Up - Asking 160 close 151 (was around 141 yesterday)
Goldman Sachs Posts First-Quarter Earnings Per Share of $3.23 Vs $6.67.

L. Brothers coming in the next 20 mins

2:15 - 75 points (would love to see them go 100bp) but will hold that 25 and hold an emergency meeting in 3 weeks ... What you guys bet on..

All Bank stocks up by 1%

BSC up to 5 dollars may go 6./ First Law Suit out BSC employees that own 1/3 of the company shares were told by managers last week that everything was AOK>

Tres. Chairman on ABC morning refuses to say America is in a Recession - Diana Sawyer attacked him and he kept going "major Downturn"

Edit - Lehman First-Quarter Profit 81 Cents A Share.


No blood on the street till I guess the 2:15 announcement - goes to short people sell he goes to far people sell ...

[Bazooka Joe]

Chasing the latest hot ticket rarely works out well. Given your track record on trying to time markets (I recall that you sold your Victoria house to rent 2-3 years ago, expecting the big crash), I'd say just pick a long term strategy and stick with it.

+1

IMO if you have to considier a change in strategy and don't want to go balanced, I'd consider getting into bank stocks shortly and out of energy/resources and money market. The writing appears to be on the wall - recession means reduced consumption, reduced consumption means less imports, less imports means standard of living in manufacuring countries goes down, which will in turn reduce demand for resources and energy.

Banks will be eager to regain confidence and I think they'll go out of their way to provide dividends.

That being said, I will be maintaining a fairly balanced portfolio and only "play" with a small portion for fun.

[jcoltage]

+1

IMO if you have to considier a change in strategy and don't want to go balanced, I'd consider getting into bank stocks shortly and out of energy/resources and money market. The writing appears to be on the wall - recession means reduced consumption, reduced consumption means less imports, less imports means standard of living in manufacuring countries goes down, which will in turn reduce demand for resources and energy.

Banks will be eager to regain confidence and I think they'll go out of their way to provide dividends.

That being said, I will be maintaining a fairly balanced portfolio and only "play" with a small portion for fun.


First off I would hold off on banks and selling energy - even Visa goes public tomr and people fear that the next crisis is in the credit card system since people are buying everything on credit and can't afford to pay their mortgage and then their credit cards.... Energy seems to be the only shining star other than metals ... Gas Season starts in April and the energy companies will be milking money in the summer ...

and BSC is not the only bank that will fail - I believe that another 2 more will fail or even a city/state bonds market could go down .... I don't expect that the Fin. market to be safe till early August after the next round of sub-prime mortgages are released .... still a mined field ..

look at L. Brothers from 25.xx yesterday to 40 today ... that is some roller coaster + BSC down 82% in 1 week ... nothing says avoid that those types of numbers ... only GS seems some what safe but if no one invests they won't make money so it is not safe either..


I also warn you that the smaller local state banks are the highest risk - I give you National City Corp (NCC) 40 - 5.xx

[Bazooka Joe]

First off I would hold off on banks and selling energy - even Visa goes public tomr and people fear that the next crisis is in the credit card system since people are buying everything on credit and can't afford to pay their mortgage and then their credit cards.... Energy seems to be the only shining star other than metals ... Gas Season starts in April and the energy companies will be milking money in the summer ...

and BSC is not the only bank that will fail - I believe that another 2 more will fail or even a city/state bonds market could go down .... I don't expect that the Fin. market to be safe till early August after the next round of sub-prime mortgages are released .... still a mined field ..

look at L. Brothers from 25.xx yesterday to 40 today ... that is some roller coaster + BSC down 82% in 1 week ... nothing says avoid that those types of numbers ... only GS seems some what safe but if no one invests they won't make money so it is not safe either..


I also warn you that the smaller local state banks are the highest risk - I give you National City Corp (NCC) 40 - 5.xx

I thought it would be obvious that by getting in "shortly" I meant within the next month or two during the inevitible crash of the industry. There will be some serious bargains to be had IMO.

And no offence, but the time to buy is generally when people are telling you not to buy.

[jcoltage]

I agree - you should have bought yesterday in the PANIC and sold today b/c all the banks are making a killing today ... but that what many people thought about doing with BSC buying on the low - but it kept going down ... the CDN dollar / Gold and Heavy in afternoon trading in Oil will make the TSX green today ... Oil Futures look like they are the Panic today.

[questrader]

I've been watching Fed-rate-day for the past few Fed sessions. Thing is, the number to be announced @ 2:15PM is already known to a select few. Those select few will try to take advantage of the info by betting heavily into the market before the announcement. There is a pattern which forms on the market indices if those select few perceive the announcement to have no/upside effect on the market, while they drive prices higher pre-announcement. So by watching the market action and looking for this pattern, you can sort of predict what will happend @ 2:15. I won't reveal that pattern, but I might post my prediction here as the day progresses to 2:15!

[jcoltage]

LEH is a doubler 20.xx to 43.xx DAM - BSC is over 8 bucks.

I've been watching Fed-rate-day for the past few Fed sessions. Thing is, the number to be announced @ 2:15PM is already known to a select few. Those select few will try to take advantage of the info by betting heavily into the market before the announcement. There is a pattern which forms on the market indices if those select few perceive the announcement to have no/upside effect on the market, while they drive prices higher pre-announcement. So by watching the market action and looking for this pattern, you can sort of predict what will happend @ 2:15. I won't reveal that pattern, but I might post my prediction here as the day progresses to 2:15!

Yea all you need to do is watch Gold futures ... I see a major rate cut - 75bp+


My money is on a WHOLE 1% point ....

[questrader]

I'm a little disappointed. Market already pricing in huge rate cut in the range of 1%. Not much room for further upside after announcement. This blows!

Edit: Market could drop after announcement.

[jcoltage]

see the major debate is that if they do a whole 1% today they have a empty gun till may.

So many economist want .50 points today - .25 points in 3 weeks in an emergency meeting and another .25 points in their next meeting ....

Everyone wants a whole point reduction by April 30.... but no one knows how many should they do today. But the gold market is saying its got to be .75 points - I want the whole deal today -

[jcoltage]

Federal Reserve Slashes Rates 3/4 Point, to 2.25%.

.75


that means .25 in an "emergency" case ... if another BSC happens in the next 3 weeks.

[Shaf]

.75 cut it is...

[ZenOps]

Whoa, 75 basis points...

I don't know what to think now.

[Bazooka Joe]

Whoa, 75 basis points...

I don't know what to think now.

Yeah, you and about a million other people.

A lot of folks watching the ticker right now trying to decide what to do I'd bet.

[redkid]

well... now til end of year things might not be stable, specially in US

[questrader]

This friggin bear market will not end its slide until sometime 1/2 into the new Presidency's first year. If it won't free fall, then it will bleed slowly. Get used to it!

[jcoltage]

Preps for Visa ... anyone get in while they could?

[zoober]

They hitting the market thursday?

[jcoltage]

They hitting the market thursday?

Nope goes public as of 9:30 EST on Wednesday (tomr) March 19, 2008

39.xx - going to 50 ....
Enter Visa, which will is slated to trade Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker V. The credit card giant plans to sell 406 million shares for between $37 and $42 a share. Even at the low end of the price range, approximately $15 billion, it would dust the 2000 AT&T Wireless's $11 billion offering.

Be watching it on the treadmill ... booked it from 8:30 - 10:30 ... be watching the action in style.

Oh and I found this for you people that own Brookfield

NYSE Euronext welcomes Brookfield Asset Management

--Co-listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchange--

Amsterdam, 18 March – Brookfield Asset Management Inc., a global asset management company, focused on property, power and infrastructure assets, was listed successfully today on NYSE Euronext’s Amsterdam market.

The Company has approximately $90 billion of assets under management and is co-listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange.

“We are delighted to welcome Brookfield onto Euronext and applaud the company’s decision to extend its NYSE listing onto one of NYSE Euronext’s European markets. Its listing in Amsterdam will give Brookfield greater liquidity and greater access to European and other international investors in the Eurozone, in addition to the access it already has to North American investors. This year, in addition to Brookfield, we welcomed Indian IT Company Satyam and Liberty, both international companies looking for access to the Eurozone via NYSE Euronext’s European markets”, said Joost van der Does de Willebois, Chairman of the Amsterdam market and member of the Management Committee of NYSE Euronext.

Scott Parson, Managing Director, Brookfield Europe said, "As Brookfield continues to seek expansion of its operations globally, we believe that this listing will help to enhance Brookfield’s market access to European and other international investors."

[kingkelly]

Is there any simple way of doing online stock investing?
Going through BMO requires me to transfer over minimum $5000, and come in with all these papers.

[jcoltage]

Is there any simple way of doing online stock investing?
Going through BMO requires me to transfer over minimum $5000, and come in with all these papers.

E-trade they send you the paper work you send them a check with 1 dollar on it .. then they set up a online link to your bank acc. then you transfer the amount you like I think.

[questrader]

Is there any simple way of doing online stock investing?
Going through BMO requires me to transfer over minimum $5000, and come in with all these papers.

They're actually doing you a favor. $5000, eh? Not much room to wiggle there. A few losses and you're out of the game. Seriously, paper trade until you've saved up at least $20,000, or say bye bye to $5000 in a few months. Your choice.

And the paper thing, since you'll be generating income (hopefully), they need to report your activities for tax purposes...

[funkylist]

The price of gold dropped $41 so far. Looks like gold stocks are taking a beating today.

This is odd, usually when Fed drops the rate, gold prices tend to go up..

[jcoltage]

The price of gold dropped $41 so far. Looks like gold stocks are taking a beating today.

This is odd, usually when Fed drops the rate, gold prices tend to go up..

All major commodities are going down b/c the US dollar is on a bull run//

It just b/c all the banks are reporting in good news in the Q1 Earnings

[hagbard]

So I'll ask again, does it look like a good time to buy into Precious metals funds?

[pitz]

So I'll ask again, does it look like a good time to buy into Precious metals funds?

No; precious metals are still very richly valued compared to the stocks of the companies that mine them.

I'd rather own mining stocks right now, than actual precious metals.

[hagbard]

What a switch from this morning...the market is heading down. The TSX is -427 and dropping.

[Bazooka Joe]

What a switch from this morning...the market is heading down. The TSX is -427 and dropping.

FYI, it generally doesn't drop much after 4:00pm ;)

[goobelygoop]

Looks like another bad day is on the way...Gold down another $30, Oil below $100. Watch out below!

[Capt.]

A few losses and you're out of the game... or say bye bye to $5000 in a few months. Your choice.

Haha, such horrible advice. You'd have to be terrible at picking stocks to have a 100% loss in a "few months." Unless they're completely gambling on one high risk stock, and if that's the case they might as well put it all on black at the roulette table like that other thread suggested.

[J_u_n_i_o_r_3]

bmo doing very well lol

[zoober]

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080325.wbmo0325/BNStory/robNews/home

Anyone have thoughts on the new BMO preferred share sale?

Going for $25 according to my RBC investment page.

[hagbard]

Just bought a Precious Metals Fund, so if you're in metals, you might want to get out before it tanks. :|

[jcoltage]

I think we are in the eye of the storm it looks safe but I sticking with metals.

Summer Gas prices is going to be a driving issue to bringing metal back up

[questrader]

Lots of people world-wide flocking to Canadian stocks today for commodities!

[hagbard]

Probably push the price I'll pay at the end of the day up. Oh well.

[Kinki]

prices are shooting up today. the news said that many believe the US market has already bottomed out.

[questrader]

prices are shooting up today. the news said that many believe the US market has already bottomed out.

Dow theory and the chart told me that it bottomed out Mid-March! Smart money are already in the market. There are some sideliners that are waiting for resitance to be broken at ~12800-ish on the Dow Jones to confirm the bull trend/correction.

[rosebud]

my mutual funds seem to be picking up............

[hagbard]

Dow theory and the chart told me that it bottomed out Mid-March! Smart money are already in the market. There are some sideliners that are waiting for resitance to be broken at ~12800-ish on the Dow Jones to confirm the bull trend/correction.

Not what you were saying mid March. I've already moved a hunk of my RRSPs into savings.

[questrader]

Not what you were saying mid March. I've already moved a hunk of my RRSPs into savings.

The Bear Sterns fiasco caused a lot of confusion then. But hindsight is 20/20. For the record, the "failure" of Bear Sterns was the psychological item needed for investors to declare the "worst". And now that that's over, the "worse" is over.

[King James]

George Soros called the current financial crisis the worst since the Great Depression and said markets will fall more this year after a brief rebound. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajkPSW_domB4)

[elty]

The Bear Sterns fiasco caused a lot of confusion then. But hindsight is 20/20. For the record, the "failure" of Bear Sterns was the psychological item needed for investors to declare the "worst". And now that that's over, the "worse" is over.

You happened to be the same dude who said BSC will bound back to $30. ;)

[hagbard]

The Bear Sterns fiasco caused a lot of confusion then. But hindsight is 20/20. For the record, the "failure" of Bear Sterns was the psychological item needed for investors to declare the "worst". And now that that's over, the "worse" is over.

I doubt it.

[rosebud]

Hopefully it's all growth from now on.

No more crisis. :o ENOUGH!!!!!!!

[Igor01]

Hopefully it's all growth from now on.

No more crisis. :o ENOUGH!!!!!!!

Sadly, the sh1tstorm is just beginning. Here are couple news stories on Bloomberg:

MBIA Loses AAA Insurer Rating From Fitch Over Capital (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUKrtfm0u4yI&refer=home) - this will affect massive amounts of credit default swaps that MBIA is a party to, look to further downgrades, write-offs and failures to perform on derivatives. This is going to have a huge impact.

Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home) - the extent of the housing meltdown is much bigger than what the foreclosure stats lead you to believe.

Combine these with more frantic action from Fed trading useless paper "securities" for US Treasuries, dismal US jobs data and stubborn lending crisis that refuses to resolve itself despite massive liquidity injections and we have one nasty mess that is going to get much worse before it gets better.

[Ebola]

It's a bright future. >:(

[Firebot]

Dow theory and the chart told me that it bottomed out Mid-March! Smart money are already in the market. There are some sideliners that are waiting for resitance to be broken at ~12800-ish on the Dow Jones to confirm the bull trend/correction.

The Bear Sterns fiasco caused a lot of confusion then. But hindsight is 20/20. For the record, the "failure" of Bear Sterns was the psychological item needed for investors to declare the "worst". And now that that's over, the "worse" is over.

March 18

http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6566629&postcount=719

This friggin bear market will not end its slide until sometime 1/2 into the new Presidency's first year. If it won't free fall, then it will bleed slowly. Get used to it!

March 17

http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6562418&postcount=696

You guys notice the discrepancy between the TSX's fall and the Dow Jones today?

Your logic would tell you that the DJIA should plunge as much on such Bearish (pun intended!) news, if not more, than the TSX!

You guys also notice why gold was beaten down to ~$1005 after it climbed as high as ~$1030!

The only logical conclusion is that somebody was preventing the DJIA from free fall, and at the same time beating down gold to give the temporary false impression of investor confidence. And that somebody operated on the US stock market and not the Canadian market, which is why the TSX went down 300 points today, while the Dow finished in the positive.

Such a somebody exists! It/they are called the Plunge Protection Team (a.k.a. Working Group on Financial Markets)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

DON'T YOU JUST LOVE HOW EVERYTHING IS MANIPULATED?

March 13

http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6545268&postcount=624

Too bad the market already discounted the worst possible scenario this Monday. The market indices are on course to recovery. But over the next few weeks, you'll be reading "horror" stories on financial web sites about how we're already in a recession, etc., not unlike those "horror" stories you heard immediately after the Feds made the 0.75 rate cut in January. Of course, we all knew that those "horror" stories back in Jan were meant to scare retail investors away from the early phase of a mini-bull correction, so that others may profit by getting in early. I call for another mini-bull run soon!

You are all over the place, and it hasn't even been a month.

[notanexpert]

Prove it. All I said was it would do an about face on the next day, and it did from ~$3 ish to close @ $4 ish. Okay screw that, if JPM didn't interfere, it would have went from $30 to probably around $50 on the next day, instead of $3 to $4.

If JPM did not "interfere" it would have gone from $30 to around $0.30 when they declared that they're bust. The only reason JPM bid $2 initially is because the Fed guranteed some of Bear's assets.

[questrader]

If JPM did not "interfere" it would have gone from $30 to around $0.30

Right... A company worth billions suddenly goes bust over 2 days. Give me a break! Neither Nortel, nor Enron didn't even fall that fast, compared to BSC! It's like saying, omg we just sold that mortgage worth 400K, and two days later, the house is worth a cool ~2-3K. Lol lol lol.

JPM is a shark. They wanted to eat up BSC, that's why they cooperated with the Feds. Com'on anyone with a little insight can see the Warren Buffett style of acquistion there, but with a much darker tone. Btw, JPM as always been the shark that it was. How do you think JPM is still "the banker" in the US after over a century? Business is "the law of the jungle" as they say.

And yes, I'm all over the place. I'm liable to change my mind just as much tomorrow. You gotta adapt to market conditions as fast as you can. That's how you survive in this game.

[stevethewheel]

And yes, I'm all over the place. I'm liable to change my mind just as much tomorrow. You gotta adapt to market conditions as fast as you can. That's how you survive in this game.

Good to know that whatever you say is 100% true for as long as it takes you to type it.

[Igor01]

Right... A company worth billions suddenly goes bust over 2 days. Give me a break! Neither Nortel, nor Enron didn't even fall that fast, compared to BSC! It's like saying, omg we just sold that mortgage worth 400K, and two days later, the house is worth a cool ~2-3K. Lol lol lol.

JPM is a shark. They wanted to eat up BSC, that's why they cooperated with the Feds. Com'on anyone with a little insight can see the Warren Buffett style of acquistion there, but with a much darker tone. Btw, JPM as always been the shark that it was. How do you think JPM is still "the banker" in the US after over a century? Business is "the law of the jungle" as they say.

And yes, I'm all over the place. I'm liable to change my mind just as much tomorrow. You gotta adapt to market conditions as fast as you can. That's how you survive in this game.


Outstanding analysis. Did you even bother to look at the Fed testimony regarding Bear Stearns? (don't worry, it's a rethorical question, clearly you didn't).

If Fed hadn't interfered (and it was the Fed, JPM is just an agent) BSC would have had to file Chapter 11, that's the short and sweet summary of what happened. Another thing to consider - why do you think Fed had to guarantee $30B to JPM to assume BSC's portfolio if it was all good assets with mark to market value? Again, the short and sweet answer is because that portfolio's value is mark to model only (in other words, worthless) since there is no market for those assets. If BSC were allowed to sink, they would have taken JPM and countless others with them simply because of their derivative counter-party exposure.

If that's still not enough of good news, consider the fact that just last week alone financial institutions borrowed $38B from the Fed's "easy indefinite loan" window. In one week! That gives you an idea how good their portfolios must be, especially in the light of the new regulation requiring them to value their portfolios based on mark to market not mark to model.

I sincerely hope you have a Plan B in addition to your strategy of "being all over the map".

[batman321123]

I think wanted is back, and his new handle is 'questrader'.

[questrader]

Good to know that whatever you say is 100% true for as long as it takes you to type it.

Your type is the kind to succeed in the stock market. OMG, the stock just broke thru support, what do I do? Oh, I know, I'm one of those slow pokes. I think I'll just hang on to my stock b/c originally, I said that it would go up, and I can't adapt to this change in behavior! :twisted:

And shut the f*** up batman, I am who you think I am. :twisted:

[Rifle]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2386283

Very good TA person I follow daily, tsx and venture are updated daily, and rest are updated weekly.

And questrader......the act is over, you're only digging yourself a deeper hole.

[questrader]

Lol, another wanna-be... Sheesh, there must be a gazillion of u guys out there losing your shirts to me... :lol:

See, I'm sitting here, wondering where my profits came from. Must have been from your pocket, I guess!

[nuberific]

Lol, another wanna-be... Sheesh, there must be a gazillion of u guys out there losing your shirts to me... :lol:

How are they losing anything to you? :confused:

[batman321123]

Your type is the kind to succeed in the stock market. OMG, the stock just broke thru support, what do I do? Oh, I know, I'm one of those slow pokes. I think I'll just hang on to my stock b/c originally, I said that it would go up, and I can't adapt to this change in behavior! :twisted:

And shut the f*** up batman, I am who you think I am. :twisted:

I think you should stick to "hot trickz" and quit talking out of your ass.

[Bazooka Joe]

Come on now children, don't ruin a long-running perfectly good thread with your nonsense. Questrader made a bad prediction and got called on it. If you go back enough in this thread, there's lots of other people who have made bad calls (myself included). It's just fun to guess at what's going to happen.

Seriously though, you guys are ruining a great long standing thread. Knock it off before you end up getting it locked.

[rosebud]

I hope mutual funds pick up and start doing well.

[hagbard]

Come on now children, don't ruin a long-running perfectly good thread with your nonsense. Questrader made a bad prediction and got called on it. If you go back enough in this thread, there's lots of other people who have made bad calls (myself included). It's just fun to guess at what's going to happen.

Seriously though, you guys are ruining a great long standing thread. Knock it off before you end up getting it locked.

One thing to make a bad call, another to make out like you've been making the right call.

[Sylvestre]

Come on now children, don't ruin a long-running perfectly good thread with your nonsense. Questrader made a bad prediction and got called on it. If you go back enough in this thread, there's lots of other people who have made bad calls (myself included). It's just fun to guess at what's going to happen.

Seriously though, you guys are ruining a great long standing thread. Knock it off before you end up getting it locked.

+1

Seriously. Grow up people.

[metro]

You happened to be the same dude who said BSC will bound back to $30. ;)

do a quick search questrader/wanted. just started trading like 3 months ago but acts like some 40 year old professional trader...

questrader: stop trolling around PF with your lame stock predictions....

[jcoltage]

looks bad today - good luck hope the Tech report is good. and tomr CPI report ... come on recovery

[rosebud]

looks bad today - good luck hope the Tech report is good. and tomr CPI report ... come on recovery

today Sunday? Is it operating today? :-0

[Octavius]

today Sunday? Is it operating today? :-0

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say he's talking about the overseas markets.

It isn't Sunday night everywhere in the world at this very minutes you know =P

[rosebud]

^^^^

:D

Yes, yes, I forgot we're not alone here...

[jcoltage]

Sunday 5:30 pm is when the Aus. Markets opens then Japan is 7pm and 10 is Hong Kong - Japan and Hong Kong are important future markets for the US markets.

[Bullseye]

TSX back over 14k, and now positive for the year.

Just bought a Precious Metals Fund, so if you're in metals, you might want to get out before it tanks. :|

Precious metals funds have gone nowhere since you posted this three weeks ago, and the TSX has gone up over 5%. :-0

[Octavius]

TSX back over 14k, and now positive for the year.



Precious metals funds have gone nowhere since you posted this three weeks ago, and the TSX has gone up over 5%. :-0

I'm up 8% for the year - I just pulled out today.

If it drops like a brick again, I'll buy back in...until then, I'm gonna wait and see.

With my luck, the TSX will skyrocket to 16k from now until Friday ^_~

[konfusion666]

I'm up 8% for the year - I just pulled out today.

Me too, i must have bought on the exact same day as you...

Although, i would be glad if the tsx "skyrocketed to 16k on friday" as that would (realistically speaking) imply a significant increase in CDN bank stocks which represent the majority of my portfolio and which have been underperforming lately.

[pitz]

Royal Bank no longer the #1 position in the TSX Composite/TSX60 indicies. Not even #2 anymore, and probably won't be able to hold #3 at this rate.

New kings -- Encana and PotashCorp.

Potash probably is fairly closed to being fully valued, but I'd suggest there's probably a good amount for ECA to still run.

[rosebud]

guys, please translate.

are things good? :o

[questrader]

Lol, u guys missed the big oil run. Snow melting a few weeks back, prime time for more road time.

Also, Airlines suspending thousands of flights, when they were allowed to resume, upward surge in demand for fuel.

What an awesome run for certain oil & gas stocks these couple of weeks have been!

[questrader]

do a quick search questrader/wanted. just started trading like 3 months ago but acts like some 40 year old professional trader...

... Except that I'm somewhere between 20-30 y/o. Age doesn't make one smarter, but sure as heck makes one wiser.

And no, I've been trading since 2001. Just got on RFD forums in 07.

[pitz]

What an awesome run for certain oil & gas stocks these couple of weeks have been!

They're still very much undervalued. Encana earnings next week should be blow-out.

[questrader]

Maybe. But the risk is now proportionately higher to get into oil & gas than a few weeks back.

[Tiberius]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2386283

Very good TA person I follow daily, tsx and venture are updated daily, and rest are updated weekly.

And questrader......the act is over, you're only digging yourself a deeper hole.

It was nice to see this link Rifle... when I saw you say "Very good TA person I follow daily... ", I immediately thought it must be TA4U's charts!

I'm a member at TradingChief.com where TA4U is also a member and one of the moderators I believe. It's a free site for the bulletin board, basic charting, etc. but has amazing tools (everything and anything a trader or investor could possibly want!) and live chat during the day for members. I have been a member since the site opened a couple years back because I actually have known the Chief himself since 1999 or so - he's the best trader I have ever seen online and he is very transparent about what he's trading and truly tries to help others out. Heck... he built TradingChief.com for traders because he was sick of the other "bull boards" that were full of pumpers and scammers, etc. The $20/month I spend there is the best money I spend... period! The membership fee goes 100% back into the development of the site and it's tools - and I'm also earning an ownership stake in the site as a member.

Anywho... enough about that... obviously I'm a believer in the site and the people there. It's a great community. Feel free to sign up and email TradingChief to ask for a free trial - you can let him know that Tiberius13 recommended the site to you (I get nothing in return).

Regarding the overall markets... amazingly, they are looking bullish right now... better make coin while we can... the markets have been held up amazingly well through some serious financial trials... I guess the market is banking on the rate cuts and FED bailouts to stimulate the US economy despite the housing and banking issues... if any signs show up to indicate otherwise.... look out below!

[King James]

They're still very much undervalued. Encana earnings next week should be blow-out.

Explain? Is Encana a good choice if I think natural gas should catch up to the oil run? I have too much in oil stock now that I would like to shift some to natural gas instead.

[Bazooka Joe]

...
Regarding the overall markets... amazingly, they are looking bullish right now... better make coin while we can... the markets have been held up amazingly well through some serious financial trials... I guess the market is banking on the rate cuts and FED bailouts to stimulate the US economy despite the housing and banking issues... if any signs show up to indicate otherwise.... look out below!

We're a long ways from through either of those yet afaik. Just an example on housing:

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/04/15/usforeclosures.html

According to that we can expect the worst in May and June, just as the summer travel season hits us (which usually brings further increases to oil prices). People losing their homes + remaining homes tanking in value as banks try to offload them + increases across the board for daily needs due to spiking fuel costs = trouble. Add to that the banks becomming less likely to lend and reduced profits, I don't think we've seen the bottom of this slump for the financial sector.

I'm probably wrong, but I haven't seen much to make me optimistic for the next quarter.

[Bazooka Joe]

Royal Bank no longer the #1 position in the TSX Composite/TSX60 indicies. Not even #2 anymore, and probably won't be able to hold #3 at this rate.

New kings -- Encana and PotashCorp.

Potash probably is fairly closed to being fully valued, but I'd suggest there's probably a good amount for ECA to still run.

Actually, I'm starting to warm to the idea of agriculture and related industries (which PCS happens to be). Especially here in Canada, as it makes up such a large portion of our economy. This could become the next safe haven in the event of market fluctuation. It's still a little "out there" as a theory, but something I'm personally planning to keep an eye on.

[batman321123]

I'm hating myself for selling my agri shares last week. Made some coin, but could have tripled that by holding on! :o

What are your takes on tech? I'm looking at a processor maker that bought out Canadian graphic card company. No names! Bottomed out?

I'm not liking metals right now. Gold's in the 950 area, but there hasn't been a lot of movement from gold stocks. Well at least not the one that I own.

[AllWheelDrift]

Me too, i must have bought on the exact same day as you...

Although, i would be glad if the tsx "skyrocketed to 16k on friday" as that would (realistically speaking) imply a significant increase in CDN bank stocks which represent the majority of my portfolio and which have been underperforming lately.
No skyrocketing to 16k, but the banks are doing well today.

[konfusion666]

Yay! The recession is over! Buy Buy Buy!













:razz: j/k

[questrader]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Smart money already got in more than a few weeks ago.

We're already more than 1/2 way thru this bull run, maybe another 8-10% gain on the market indices, and we'll get a nice 5-10% correction after that.

Edit: Oops, I didn't see the J/K part near the bottom.

[AllWheelDrift]

They're still very much undervalued. Encana earnings next week should be blow-out.
Ooops...

[zoober]

Blown out?

[pitz]

Blown out?

Well, to make any sense of ECA earnings, you need a degree in mark-to-market accounting, lol.

Seriously though, ECA grew its production 9% quarter over quarter, which is spectacular.

[zoober]

Yeah, profits are only down due to locked in prices on contracts. Going to have some crazy numbers from here on.

[questrader]

My spider-senses tell me that this mini-bull run is almost over... ;)

[amplified]

My spider-senses tell me that this mini-bull run is almost over... ;)

I think so too. I'm sitting on cash right now. I wonder what will happen to the Financial sector. Seems to have taken a beating in the last couple of weeks even though the TSX was in the positive most of those days.

[AllWheelDrift]

My spider-senses tell me that this mini-bull run is almost over... ;)
Well, I think the market is contrarian to what questrader says, so I'm gonna have to say because of that it's going to continue. :p

Ok, ok, so I agree the run is most likely almost over. The only reason I say that is I don't think investors are ready to start pushing the index to new highs just yet. Also, I expect to see more profit taking.

I find my financials have actually been doing OK. Gold has been more of a laggard in recent weeks.

[konfusion666]

Gold has been more of a laggard in recent weeks.

In which case you probably *want* the bull run to be over...

[AllWheelDrift]

In which case you probably *want* the bull run to be over...
Not really, because it's a relatively small portion of my portfolio.

[faken]

hey is there a list that you guys use to look at all the stock options that are offered all around the world.. For the TSX, NYSE.. etc. Could you please post up a link. Thanks.

[King James]

I keep telling myself to lighten up my oil & gas stock and they keep going up. Now I am kicking myself not getting more, especially some natuaral gas one. What should I do? This just doesn't make sense when everyone is talking about recession. Is this a peak at $124 or it will shoot up to $200 soon?

[rosebud]

hey is there a list that you guys use to look at all the stock options that are offered all around the world.. For the TSX, NYSE.. etc. Could you please post up a link. Thanks.

http://finance.google.ca/finance?hl=en&tab=we

[notanexpert]

My spider-senses tell me that this mini-bull run is almost over... ;)

I wonder who are going to be the sellers to bring this market down significantly. I just read today that Canadians are sitting on record amounts of cash that they pulled out of the markets over the last 6 months. This seems to be in line with the posters on this forum also boasting about their cash hordes... This money is more likely to be driving the markets overall up rather than down. Of course, there is no way of predicting short term moves, so I'm just speculating.

[notanexpert]

I keep telling myself to lighten up my oil & gas stock and they keep going up. Now I am kicking myself not getting more, especially some natuaral gas one. What should I do? This just doesn't make sense when everyone is talking about recession. Is this a peak at $124 or it will shoot up to $200 soon?

Since oil was $40, all I heard is the "speculators" are driving up the price. I think more and more traders are coming to the realization that its the supply and demand that is driving the price up. One thing I know for sure - if oil gets back to under $50 within the next couple of years, the whole Peak Oil theory is bunk. If it stays up where it is now or continues to climb, then I'm ready to declare Peak Oil as gospel, and I'm certain we will never see prices return to historic averages (even in recessions), and companies sitting on multi-decade oil reserves are selling for next to nothing at the prices they're at today.

[amplified]

There seem to be some decent deals ie SLF and MFC but I'm somewhat nervous about entering the market when it is so high. I've put in some stink bids on SLF @ $46 so we'll see what happens.

[notanexpert]

There seem to be some decent deals ie SLF and MFC but I'm somewhat nervous about entering the market when it is so high. I've put in some stink bids on SLF @ $46 so we'll see what happens.

The one that reported today is a great deal I think. Their business is up pretty much across all regions and all lines. Some one-time write-downs because of the market correction and US$ weakness? In 10 years you will think this was a great opportunity to purchase of of the few great Canadian businesses that successfully competes worldwide.
Can it get cheaper next week or next month? Who knows, but I think you will be paying a lot more for it 2 or 3 years down the road.

[questrader]

I wonder who are going to be the sellers to bring this market down significantly. I just read today that Canadians are sitting on record amounts of cash that they pulled out of the markets over the last 6 months.

Which group of Canadians and whose money are you referring to, the crowd (a.k.a. sheep) money, or the smart (a.k.a. institutional, a.k.a. wolf) money? Do you always follow the herd into the wolf's cavern?

[zoober]

Which group of Canadians and whose money are you referring to, the crowd (a.k.a. sheep) money, or the smart (a.k.a. institutional, a.k.a. wolf) money? Do you always follow the herd into the wolf's cavern?

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jw7OL2Rak5smvpfRB4CQhs441okA
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=f2db5d9d-06e5-453d-990d-c45c55d85abf


Sheep, smart.. Call them what you want. But there are a lot of people not buying stocks or mutual funds right now. So instead of going into "the wolf's cavern" they're staying away. So, what does that mean for "wolves" ?

[questrader]

Lol, you are correct. I can see the axiom "Sell in May and go away" at play. A lot of people that I've talked to and known are sitting on the sidelines until June/July, supposedly the time when the economy starts to pick up.

When the sheep avoids buying in May to buy in June/July instead, that's when the bull market will be over. At that time, look for the wolves to sell into the buying strengths of the sheeps.

[questrader]

It's been a very long time since I've seen a new company added on the TSX. Credit must be really tight nowadays. Today, we have a new addition to the TSX: CXX.TO!! Yay!!

[pitz]

It's been a very long time since I've seen a new company added on the TSX. Credit must be really tight nowadays. Today, we have a new addition to the TSX: CXX.TO!! Yay!!

Its not a great IPO environment. I mean, look at what's going on with BCE. An extremely reputable and well-capitalized outfit has promised to buy it out for $42 next month, and its only trading at $37 or so. A 14% discount on such a low-risk deal is pretty much unprecedented.

I think you can conclude, conservatively, that the entire market is discounted at least 14% from its fair value, just based on that deal alone. Of course, if you saw ECA's action today, investors have plenty of appetite to continue bidding up the oils.

[questrader]

if you saw ECA's action today, investors have plenty of appetite to continue bidding up the oils.

Not the oil. Investors were more interested in EnCana's unconventional gas department...

[Thalo]

Nobody notice the TSX breaking through its all time high today? I laugh at the idiots that sold their stocks/mutual funds in January-March.

[questrader]

Nobody notice the TSX breaking through its all time high today? I laugh at the idiots that sold their stocks/mutual funds in January-March.

Fake break-out. Another 4-6% rise on the TSX and we'll have a nice 10% correction! Beware! (So far, the TSX has risen ~16% in the recent mini-bull run. Markets usually correct after they've risen 20-25% anyways).

[Thalo]

I'm still waiting for the financials to catch up.. :|

[1_black_civic]

I'm still waiting for the financials to catch up.. :|

I'd rather receive ridiculous sized dividends, reinvested into the same. Thanks :)

[King James]

It doesn't mater how ridiculous your dividened is if they drop another 10-20%. Plus they are allow to cut their dividends.

I'd rather receive ridiculous sized dividends, reinvested into the same. Thanks :)

[1_black_civic]

It doesn't mater how ridiculous your dividened is if they drop another 10-20%. Plus they are allow to cut their dividends.

Yeah, the keyword being if. You don't sound very confident about the canadian financial system which is totally fair. I work within the system so perhaps I'm overconfident but I believe the dividends are safe.

[Bullseye]

It doesn't mater how ridiculous your dividened is if they drop another 10-20%. Plus they are allow to cut their dividends.

Depends on your goal. If you just need income, and don't plan to sell, share price in the short to medium term is meaningless to you.

What bank is going to cut their dividend? BMO is in the worst shape, and has been for awhile, yet their 150+ year streak of not cutting dividends carrys on. If you own a variety of financials, your dividend income is pretty safe, I'd say.

[King James]

Yeah, the keyword being if. You don't sound very confident about the canadian financial system which is totally fair. I work within the system so perhaps I'm overconfident but I believe the dividends are safe.

If you are working within financial industry and still heavily investing in the same industry, I will suggest little bit of diversification will help :)

Also, what is so special about canadian finanical industry anyways? If the US side could drop so much, I don't see why I should be so confident about our side either.

[King James]

Depends on your goal. If you just need income, and don't plan to sell, share price in the short to medium term is meaningless to you.

What bank is going to cut their dividend? BMO is in the worst shape, and has been for awhile, yet their 150+ year streak of not cutting dividends carrys on. If you own a variety of financials, your dividend income is pretty safe, I'd say.

There are so many other Canadian and international industries that are paying nice dividend as well. Why should we focus on Canadian banks only if you want income? You can also just buy their preferral if that's only what you want.

I know that they haven't cut their dividend in recent history. I was simply pointing out that dividend is not safe. That's all.

[notanexpert]

...
Also, what is so special about canadian finanical industry anyways? If the US side could drop so much, I don't see why I should be so confident about our side either.

The Canadian financial industry is very different from the US. For onle thing, they've got a very cozy oligopoly going which basically means any dips in profitablity always turn out to be very short-lived. Lots of other wind at their backs, the oil and gas industry being just one of them.

[King James]

They are also very small compare to the US banks because our government won't allow them to merge. I will say their profit is getting squeezed now that some of them has to expand to US.

If I still believe in the oil and gas bull run at the current level, I will just invest into that industry directly.


The Canadian financial industry is very different from the US. For onle thing, they've got a very cozy oligopoly going which basically means any dips in profitablity always turn out to be very short-lived. Lots of other wind at their backs, the oil and gas industry being just one of them.

[notanexpert]

They are also very small compare to the US banks because our government won't allow them to merge. I will say their profit is getting squeezed now that some of them has to expand to US.

If I still believe in the oil and gas bull run at the current level, I will just invest into that industry directly.

Actually, most banks in the US are smaller than Canada's Big 5 banks. The US does have a few mega-big banks which are more global in nature, and I think are a far worse investment than Canada's most global bank, Scotiabank.
If you're looking for growth in your investments, what do you think is easier to grow - a $160 billion bank or a $40 billion bank?

[King James]

I am of course talking about the US mega big banks as you have described. Could you explain why a global diversified big bank will be a far worse investment than a local smaller bank that will remain small since they cannot merge?

I won't be looking for too much of growth if I invest in banks anyways. Besides, I don't think they have the scale to grow too much if they don't have the power to merge to cut down on competition and their own cost. Just look at what happen when they try to expand their business down south. I don't think they have too much success other than BNS in Latin America.

I am not saying they are not a good investment but just their are better opportunity elsewhere. I won't be picking the bottom now just to catch a falling knife.

Actually, most banks in the US are smaller than Canada's Big 5 banks. The US does have a few mega-big banks which are more global in nature, and I think are a far worse investment than Canada's most global bank, Scotiabank.
If you're looking for growth in your investments, what do you think is easier to grow - a $160 billion bank or a $40 billion bank?

[Sylvestre]

Man, this market is weird.

[notanexpert]

...
Could you explain why a global diversified big bank will be a far worse investment than a local smaller bank that will remain small since they cannot merge?
...

First of all, why are you saying a small bank (debatable that BNS is small) will remain small? Back in 1995 BNS was even smaller, and somehow it had no trouble becoming 8 times bigger since then (in terms of market cap). And growth at any point in time is easier for smaller players than for bigger ones. Because if BNS adds a billion dollars worth of business, its far more meaningful to it than for Citigroup to add a billion dollars worth of business.
By the way, since 1998, Citigroup has not grown pretty much at all in terms of market cap. So I don't see how the size has helped them in the past, and I fail to see how the size will help them in the future.

[konfusion666]

I am of course talking about the US mega big banks as you have described. Could you explain why a global diversified big bank will be a far worse investment than a local smaller bank that will remain small since they cannot merge?

I won't be looking for too much of growth if I invest in banks anyways. Besides, I don't think they have the scale to grow too much if they don't have the power to merge to cut down on competition and their own cost. Just look at what happen when they try to expand their business down south. I don't think they have too much success other than BNS in Latin America.

Have you actually done any research on the Canadian banking sector or are you just coming up with all this stuff to justify your own purchases of "US mega big bank" stocks? :confused:

[cutesnoopydoll]

Big time drop at BCE...Rogers is up..

[rosebud]

things are turning ugly.

the last two weeks were good though....

[Mgz]

Man, this market is weird.

higher the climb the bigger the dive! :cheesygri

[Bullseye]

I'm up 8% for the year - I just pulled out today.

If it drops like a brick again, I'll buy back in...until then, I'm gonna wait and see.

With my luck, the TSX will skyrocket to 16k from now until Friday ^_~

TSX over $15k now (up 7.5% since above post was made!).

All those people here who are jumping in and out of the market, just goes to show that timing the market is a tough game.

I increased my TSX and S&P index holdings quite a bit in the past few months, when things were down, and the Cdn dollar was close to $1.02. It wasn't market timing, per se, I had been planning a shift in my asset allocation. Been very good for me, so far, but I'll hold those now for the long term.

[cutesnoopydoll]

It is extremely tough to time the market. TSX is following the price of oil and gold prices. Oil can go up approx. $10 in two days...so hard to predict..so it is better to investment weekly.

[zoober]

Crazy fridays... Half my stocks are down 2-5% and the other half up 2-5%.

[cutesnoopydoll]

well...oil price hikes is starting to affect the economy...

[funkylist]

can things really keep on going up? It's kinda scary investing now..

[questrader]

can things really keep on going up? It's kinda scary investing now..

Why so scared? I'm 99% positive we've gone up ~+70% of the way UP. There's another 30% more way to go UP before we'll see a "crash"... :twisted:

Edit: I stand corrected if the market develops an M-top within the next couple of weeks.

[AllWheelDrift]

Why so scared? I'm 99% positive we've gone up ~+70% of the way UP. There's another 30% more way to go UP before we'll see a "crash"... :twisted:

Edit: I stand corrected if the market develops an M-top within the next couple of weeks.
70% of the way up starting from where? Where will this extra 30% put us? Where will the "crash" put us?

What happend to that correction you predicited was starting? Is a 500 point dip in a matter of a week followed by a complete rebound a week later a correction these days?

I'll stand corrected if you develop a BS-bottom but I don't forecast that happening any time soon.

[Bullseye]

I'll stand corrected if you develop a BS-bottom but I don't forecast that happening any time soon.

:lol:

[questrader]

lol, this is to be expected from guys who never made +100% ROI in any given year in their life...

[faken]

Big time drop at BCE...Rogers is up..

I read somewhere that profits in the telecom industry are not going to be that great for the next few years. lots of competition because shaw and a couple other companies are coming in.

[jcoltage]

I read somewhere that profits in the telecom industry are not going to be that great for the next few years. lots of competition because shaw and a couple other companies are coming in.

TD downgrades Rogers, Telus and Quebecor

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2008/06/05/spectrumwatch-round-27-td-downgrades-rogers-telus-and-quebecor.aspx

[stevethewheel]

lol, this is to be expected from guys who never made +100% ROI in any given year in their life...

I think what he's referring to is that you use a lot of terms that make it sound like you know what you are talking about with respect to prediction. But really, it turns out that you don't predict much, and use other clever terms to talk your way out of being held accountable.

It is quite likely you do make good money yourself, however your advice is hazardous in the way it is give here.

I like the BS bottom as a way to explain being side-swiped by the M-wave at the top.

[Archanfel]

I think what he's referring to is that you use a lot of terms that make it sound like you know what you are talking about with respect to prediction. But really, it turns out that you don't predict much, and use other clever terms to talk your way out of being held accountable.

It is quite likely you do make good money yourself, however your advice is hazardous in the way it is give here.

I like the BS bottom as a way to explain being side-swiped by the M-wave at the top.

What clever terms? Other than some delusional claims. Like ebay was written in Java. :cheesygri

[questrader]

Looks like the TSX is M-topping (or in layman's term, "see-sawing") to me... Potentially beware!

[questrader]

* Sniff * * Sniff *

I smell a lot of jealous in the previous posts. Anyways, if you can't see that the TSX is topping off by now and tracing an "M", you must be blind.

[zoober]

Jealousy? :cheesygri

Hope this forum isn't your only source of self esteem.

[dealguy2]

What clever terms? Other than some delusional claims. Like ebay was written in Java. :cheesygri

Ebay is written in Java. It wasn't orginally but it is now.

[Archanfel]

Ebay is written in Java. It wasn't orginally but it is now.

I said "was", didn't I? He claimed that Ebay was originally written in Java. Of course, when ebay first came out, JDK 1.0 was not officially released yet.

If I am not mistaken, Ebay was originally written in Perl. Then moved to C++. Then moved to Java/J2EE.

[pitz]

Oh please... Ebay is not 'written' in a single language. There are a wide variety of different platforms that support eBay's operations, some of which, involved development on Java, many of which, involve C, assembly, SQL, etc.

[dealguy2]

I said "was", didn't I? He claimed that Ebay was originally written in Java. Of course, when ebay first came out, JDK 1.0 was not officially released yet.

If I am not mistaken, Ebay was originally written in Perl. Then moved to C++. Then moved to Java/J2EE.

True. I'm not sure Perl was invovled. I should dig up the most excellent slideshow I once saw that showed the progression of the architecture of Ebay. Quite amazing.

[dealguy2]

Oh please... Ebay is not 'written' in a single language. There are a wide variety of different platforms that support eBay's operations, some of which, involved development on Java, many of which, involve C, assembly, SQL, etc.

That's true of most large systems but still people usually say it's .NET or Java or LAMP or whatever based on what the majority of it is written in. For integration projects it becomes a little muddy that's for sure.

[AllWheelDrift]

So much for the M-Top, I'm staring at a W-Bottom.

[Archanfel]

I don't see how the TSX can go much higher. We are in a stagflation after all and this recession seems to be a perfect storm. Yet we are up almost 7% year to date with little fundamentals. That can't last forever. We will see.

[rfdrfd]

I don't see how the TSX can go much higher. We are in a stagflation after all and this recession seems to be a perfect storm. Yet we are up almost 7% year to date with little fundamentals. That can't last forever. We will see.

Really? Elaborate more pls.


I think Canada is still going strong. With our commodities, resources (energy, potash). USA ain't going back up anytime soon, have to finish the election, then they have to wait to see how "good" their new president is. If he sucks, then again, USA won't recover.

Our dollar is still close to 1:1 with them. There's a reason for that.

[hagbard]

Really? Elaborate more pls.


I think Canada is still going strong. With our commodities, resources (energy, potash). USA ain't going back up anytime soon, have to finish the election, then they have to wait to see how "good" their new president is. If he sucks, then again, USA won't recover.

Our dollar is still close to 1:1 with them. There's a reason for that.

The President doesn't run the US economy.

[Archanfel]

Really? Elaborate more pls.


I think Canada is still going strong. With our commodities, resources (energy, potash). USA ain't going back up anytime soon, have to finish the election, then they have to wait to see how "good" their new president is. If he sucks, then again, USA won't recover.

Our dollar is still close to 1:1 with them. There's a reason for that.

The commodity price is hurting demands already. The prices might stay up due to tight supply, but if the volume drops, companies will suffer. More seriously, inflation is running high in China and India. They kept our inflation low over the last decade, it might be changing.

[Bullseye]

I don't see how the TSX can go much higher. We are in a stagflation after all and this recession seems to be a perfect storm. Yet we are up almost 7% year to date with little fundamentals. That can't last forever. We will see.

The Canadian economy is still growing, not in recession, and inflation is still quite low by historical standards. There may be some trouble brewing, but we're still a good ways away from declaring stagflation, in my opinion.

Most sectors of the TSX are still performing quite poorly, though, it's largely because of Potash and RIM that it's up for the year. I actually think there is lots of room for more upside this year.

[dealguy2]

The Canadian economy is still growing, not in recession, and inflation is still quite low by historical standards.

Canada's GDP contracted last quarter and will likely do so again this quarter meaning we're in a recession right now. Remember that when they say "we're in a recession" it means that for the last 2 quarters the economy has retracted. It's looking in a rear view mirror. Same deal with inflation numbers.

Once you cross the rubicon of declaring that the economy is in recession I think you will see some dramatic developments. The TSX will probably decline and I bet commodities will continue to rise even faster as capital flees the stock market.

To fight inflation and make up for the high risk of mortgage defaults interest rates will rise and commodities will fall, house prices will plumet even more and then finally things will stabilize into a stagnant cesspool for quite some time.

[Bullseye]

Canada's GDP contracted last quarter and will likely do so again this quarter meaning we're in a recession right now. Remember that when they say "we're in a recession" it means that for the last 2 quarters the economy has retracted. It's looking in a rear view mirror. Same deal with inflation numbers.

It contracted .3%, I wouldn't call that doom and gloom time. Next quarters results will be interesting, for sure.

Inflation numbers are released monthly, so fairly up to date. Some worries further out here, but no expectation of any rate increases any time soon. Last I heard was the last quarter of 2009. Things can change, of course.


Once you cross the rubicon of declaring that the economy is in recession I think you will see some dramatic developments. The TSX will probably decline and I bet commodities will continue to rise even faster as capital flees the stock market.

The TSX is heavily commodity-driven, hard to see how it will decline if commodity prices start rising even faster.

To fight inflation and make up for the high risk of mortgage defaults interest rates will rise and commodities will fall, house prices will plumet even more and then finally things will stabilize into a stagnant cesspool for quite some time.

Virtually all of the inflationary inputs in Canada right now are imported from outside the country, so there is little impetus for the central bank to start cranking up rates to battle it. It would be pointless, just killing an already slow economy. There is no Canada-based wage growth that is fueling inflation, or flaming hot domestic consumer demand, as in past inflationary environments.

[dealguy2]

Google stagflation.

[AllWheelDrift]

Google stagflation.
Stagflation is a period of inflation combined with stagnation (that is, slow economic growth and rising unemployment), generally including recession.
And your point is?

[pitz]

TSX did very well last time there was serious stagflation:

1976 10.1%
1977 9.8%
1978 28.7%
1979 43.6%
1980 29.1%
1981 -11.0%
1982 3.3%
1983 36.2%


I think it can be argued as well that Canada is even more leveraged to the global commodities market today than it was in the 1970s. Canada did not, for instance, export 2 million barrels a day of oil to the US back in 1979. And interest rates were considerably higher in the late 70s as well, which would have limited stock market gains.

IMHO, we're sitting at around 1978 right now.. Oil and everything else has gone up crazy, but the stock market has yet to really respond.

Most sectors of the TSX are still performing quite poorly, though, it's largely because of Potash and RIM that it's up for the year. I actually think there is lots of room for more upside this year.

I agree; every valuation model I use for the TSX shows that its easily 30-40% undervalued based on earnings alone. POT and RIMM have been the only things this year that have gone up more or less.

[questrader]

Predictions for impending future:

(1) Oil will momentarily break-out of all-time high, giving shorters a chance to short into uptick. Then, oil will crash.

(2) TSX will momentarily break-out of all-time high, giving shorters a chance to short the indexed stocks/funds. Then, the TSX will undergo a correction.

(3) Screw my Previous M-Top prediction. Looks to be a tripple top with impending false break-out.

[zoober]

Pretty wild doom and gloom day from the Bank of Scotland etc.. With all these guys calling for a crash just today, I can't help but think we're going to see some big drops like we had in the fall with people cashing out.

[dealguy2]

What I've been thinking about lately is the level of debt everyone is carrying on their HELOC accounts. You see new trucks, boats, cars, motorbikes, RVs etc everywhere now.

I'm sure some of it is owned outright but how much of this stuff is paid for with HELOC or other credit? When the housing market crashes and the banks tighten up lending what's going to happen? I don't buy the conservative Canadian banker fable the MSM is pushing at all.

Pitz, is there any precedent for this huge runup in personal debt?

[Igor01]

Predictions for impending future:

(1) Oil will momentarily break-out of all-time high, giving shorters a chance to short into uptick. Then, oil will crash.

(2) TSX will momentarily break-out of all-time high, giving shorters a chance to short the indexed stocks/funds. Then, the TSX will undergo a correction.

(3) Screw my Previous M-Top prediction. Looks to be a tripple top with impending false break-out.

Your predictions seem to ignore: A. US Dollar and B. Financial System's health (as all the wonderful derivatives are finally coming home to roost). If the Fed keeps up the bail-out game (like they have a choice...), you will soon see their balance sheet completely destroyed, which of course means a flood of new monetary aggregates, which in turn breaks whatever last legs Uncle Buck still has left. The supposed interest rate hike even if it does happen will fail to give USD a rate differential advantage over the Euro as the ECB is not hellbent on propping up the stock market valuations but rather on stopping inflation and they will hike.

In light of the above, I'd say your predictions are somewhat doubtful as to their accuracy.

[AllWheelDrift]

In light of the above, I'd say your predictions are somewhat doubtful as to their accuracy.
Don't worry, questrader makes questionable predictions all the time and more often than not they do prove to be wrong (at which point he comes up with an excuse and some equally dubious new preditions.) The best advice is probably just to get some entertainment value out of the predictions and comments he makes to pad his own ego and post count.

Most importantly, he assures us he's very successful when it comes to trading so don't pitty him because he'll simply perceive it as jealousy.

[zoober]

What hit oil so hard today? All because China raised prices?

Encana, Suncor both down 5-7%.

[konfusion666]

What hit oil so hard today? All because China raised prices?

Encana, Suncor both down 5-7%.

That would be it.

[thefleet]

Don't worry, questrader makes questionable predictions all the time and more often than not they do prove to be wrong (at which point he comes up with an excuse and some equally dubious new preditions.) The best advice is probably just to get some entertainment value out of the predictions and comments he makes to pad his own ego and post count.

Most importantly, he assures us he's very successful when it comes to trading so don't pitty him because he'll simply perceive it as jealousy.

:lol:

[brunes]

Most importantly, he assures us he's very successful when it comes to trading so don't pitty him because he'll simply perceive it as jealousy.
Maybe he posts his "predictions" in the hopes they will spread when in fact he's betting the opposite, hence profit?

[questrader]

Close, but no cigars.

On other forums, I'll usually post AFTER the fact...

[questrader]

I'm counting -5% so far from TSX's peak. Another -5% to go and then we're good for another upleg.

Btw, TSX broke major support today, so beware... The other -5% will total up a -10% correction.

Definitely a tripple-top formation!

[dealguy2]

Yes the infamous tripple top. Could soon form into a dexahedral spiral of doom if you're not careful.

[questrader]

:arrowu: [Assumes Darth Vader tone of voice] Do you question your faith? [Does a force choke on dealguy2].

[rosebud]

^^^^ lol

[Thalo]

Seriously, am I the only one who predicted what would happen to RIM today? THis just goes hand in hand with my comments on the inherent risk of owning POT that I mentioned in another thread. These sky-high stocks are priced for ridiculous future growth rates, if they're off by even a little, the stock takes a hit. RIM doubled their profits from last year. Not good enough, analysts were expecting 120% or something. It's down over 7% after hours as I write this.

[pitz]

Yeah no surprise on RIMM. But why are the oils getting beaten up so badly?

Many of the oils are trading at 6-7X earnings right now based on analyst estimates of $90-$100/barrel.

[questrader]

RIM is bloatware. This kind of whale, I never want to trade around.

[cutesnoopydoll]

Many traders start to short RIM...going down further as we speak.

[konfusion666]

Yeah no surprise on RIMM. But why are the oils getting beaten up so badly?

Many of the oils are trading at 6-7X earnings right now based on analyst estimates of $90-$100/barrel.

I want to know too. I'm a Suncor shareholder, I hope I don't come to regret that fact...

[rosebud]

stocks tanked today

[fastlayne]

stocks tanked today

and a great day to be in the bear/inverse ETFs.

[Paranoidandroid]

Youcch dropped $6 this morning. This should be moved to Hot Deals :D

[questrader]

The Dow Jones had its day of infamy yesterday, when it tumbled more than -350 points to finish well below its January low.

The "2nd" bottom has arrived for now folks. And it looks like the TSX might be done correcting soon. Get back to work.

[dealguy2]

The formation looks something like a giant knife falling towards the ground now. Who wants to catch it?

[pitz]

Well at least the TSX is remaining relatively strong compared to everything else.

And Shaw's earnings were amazing this morning, +40% earnings growth.

[questrader]

The formation looks something like a giant knife falling towards the ground now. Who wants to catch it?

Do my eyes deceive me? Am I reading voodoo magic here? Trust me. The bottom is here, either today, or on Monday! Though we will soon move up from here, this is only a temporary bottom for the Dow. Another bottom is coming in a few months. In the mean time, enjoy the mini-bull run that is iminent.

[rosebud]

Do my eyes deceive me? Am I reading voodoo magic here? Trust me. The bottom is here, either today, or on Monday! Though we will soon move up from here, this is only a temporary bottom for the Dow. Another bottom is coming in a few months. In the mean time, enjoy the mini-bull run that is iminent.

I pray you are right my friend.

[questrader]

:arrowu: Too sweet! Intraday inverted head and shoulder on Dow Jones to shake out the remaining nervous weak hands. UP we go from here.

[dealguy2]

I think the DOW is at it's low now too. Good time to buy is it not?

[Sylvestre]

yeesh, is this what has become of this topic?

[Igor01]

yeesh, is this what has become of this topic?

Well, kids do say the darndest things.

[questrader]

I think the DOW is at it's low now too. Good time to buy is it not?

If you compare today's bear market with the one in 1981-1982 here ( http://www.fiendbear.com/bear1981.htm ), we are at about the equivalent of 03/11/82.

[Igor01]

If you compare today's bear market with the one in 1981-1982 here ( http://www.fiendbear.com/bear1981.htm ), we are at about the equivalent of 03/11/82.

Yep, "about the equivalent". And the US still has its manufacturing base, Volker is in charge of the Fed, the US is the biggest creditor nation, resource exporters are not desperate to ditch dollar peg, and there is no $10T in derivatives hanging over the world's collecitve finanancial head. So yeah, "up we go from here!". LOL

[Thalo]

If you compare today's bear market with the one in 1981-1982 here ( http://www.fiendbear.com/bear1981.htm ), we are at about the equivalent of 03/11/82.

I would love to have invested all my money in 1982.

[pitz]

1982, lol. I think we're closer to 1977 or 1978, personally. :).

(the TSX basically doubled between 1977 and 1982...which would restore it to being double that of the Dow, which is where it was at in ~1982).

[thelost]

yeah basket of dow stocks from 1982 to 2000 1300% return... more than 50% per year...

only problem is that article it says 1982 the interest rate is at 11%....

the interest rate today is 1.5%....

[pitz]

yeah basket of dow stocks from 1982 to 2000 1300% return... more than 50% per year...

only problem is that article it says 1982 the interest rate is at 11%....

the interest rate today is 1.5%....

Yeah and the market was trading at a P/E somewhere between 6 and 8 back then.

Today the Dow and the S&P500 are closer to 20.

Give it another 4 years I figure.. And no magazine covers like that this year, lol.. (that cover was in 1979..)

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/7265064_e30fd4083b_m_1.jpg

[pitz]

I would love to have invested all my money in 1982.

Thalo, the trick is, IMHO, to ride the Canadian oil and gas/mining stocks into the coming bubble (ie: when the P/E's get to be in the 30s), and then buy up the US when its dirt cheap. Sell the mining stocks when, scratching your head, you just can't possibly see any further gains (just like Nortel in the late 90s).

Canadian stocks are nowhere near a bubble (in fact, they seem to be grossly undervalued), and the US stocks seem to be extremely expensive.

Such a strategy, if you implemented it in the mid 70s and 80s, would have worked brilliantly.

Of course, to make full use of such a strategy, you have to throw all that nonsense about having a 'diversified portfolio' out the window, and you have to, at least to some extent, be a market timer.

Also Canada has a lot more going for it today, than it did in the late 70s. No horrible Trudeau. Very high (and rising) taxes. No oilsands, etc.

[questrader]

A lot of investors are looking for capitulation, like the ones seen in August, November, and January. Well, sorry to say this, but just as a 3rd stage base on a stock chart is likely to fail, capitulation won't happen the 4th time around. Friday was the bottom, or approximately the bottom. When a bunch of investors anticipate a market event, that event will never happen (ie. the January effect, "Dogs of the Dow", etc).

Here's an article in line with my train of thoughts:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mark-hulbert-friday-bottom/story.aspx?guid=%7B940EF19E%2DAE6F%2D457B%2D892D%2 D1E1D7EE88E2A%7D&dist=hplatest

MARK HULBERT
Was Friday the bottom?
Commentary: Capitulation watch continues, but contrarians see bullish omens
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:33 p.m. EDT June 30, 2008
Comments: 2
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Did the Dow's close Friday represent the closing low of the correction that began last fall?
When I last reviewed the sentiment evidence from a contrarian perspective, 10 days ago, I argued that advisers had yet to throw in the veritable towel and that, therefore, the capitulation that contrarians look for to mark a bottom had yet to take place. I quoted Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research as saying: "We may need more extreme pessimistic sentiment before we can call sentiment clear-cut bullish." See June 19 column

Since I wrote that column, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:

11,350.01, +3.50, +0.0%)
has fallen more than 700 points, and -- not surprisingly -- advisers have grown more discouraged.
But have they become discouraged enough to satisfy contrarians' requirement that pessimism become extreme?
Let's take a look at the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. When I wrote my June 19 column, the HSNSI stood at minus 24.5%. At the close on Monday, June 30, the HSNSI stood at minus 35.9%.
So, in the wake of a greater-than-700 point drop in the Dow, the average recommended equity exposure among short-term market-timing newsletters has fallen by 11.4 percentage points.
That may be low enough to qualify as capitulation, but I'm not so sure. It's a close call.
Contrarians would be more confident that this is a bottom if there had been a more precipitous decline in bullishness over the last couple of weeks. As it was, the decline appears to be a tad too orderly to be classified as, "throwing in the towel."
To be sure, bullishly-oriented contrarians can find at least some degree of support in the sentiment data. At minus 35.9%, the HSNSI is now lower than it's been any time this decade - lower even than where it stood at the end of the 2000-2002 bear market.
That's a bullish omen.
Another bullish omen: The slightly higher low to which the HSNSI descended at the market's March lows (minus 29.4%) was still bearish enough to be the springboard for a rally of more than a thousand Dow points.
What do the contrarian-oriented newsletter editors have to say?
Michael Burke and John Gray, editors of Investors Intelligence, are moderately bullish. Last week they reminded subscribers that "bottoms take time to complete." They aren't necessarily saying that the exact bottom has been seen, but they do think we're in a bottoming process.
Richard Band, editor of the Profitable Investing newsletter, is forecasting a bounce. He wrote after the close Friday, "We're in a very tough phase for the stock market, and there may well be more thunder and lightning before the storm passes. But a sharp bounce is coming."
Band, you may recall, was forecasting in late March that the Dow would reach the 16K level by late this year or early 2009. See March 27 column
Band didn't mention that forecast in his communication to subscribers Friday. But, in any case, the rally that he is forecasting this time around is on a smaller scale than what he was recommending then: "We're due for a rebound," he says, "possibly a furious run-up lasting three or four weeks."
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Also, it's funny how nobody attributes Thursday's -350 points drop, Friday's -100 points drop, and Monday's break-even with end-of-the-quarter/semester selling by fund managers.

[batman321123]

A lot of investors are looking for capitulation, like the ones seen in August, November, and January. Well, sorry to say this, but just as a 3rd stage base on a stock chart is likely to fail, capitulation won't happen the 4th time around. Friday was the bottom, or approximately the bottom. When a bunch of investors anticipate a market event, that event will never happen (ie. the January effect, "Dogs of the Dow", etc).

Here's an article in line with my train of thoughts:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mark-hulbert-friday-bottom/story.aspx?guid=%7B940EF19E%2DAE6F%2D457B%2D892D%2 D1E1D7EE88E2A%7D&dist=hplatest



Also, it's funny how nobody attributes Thursday's -350 points drop, Friday's -100 points drop, and Monday's break-even with end-of-the-quarter/semester selling by fund managers.

Don't you mean "that was my train of thought, in line with the following article"?

[cutesnoopydoll]

Look at the bank stocks, dropping quite dramatically these days..

[questrader]

Unbelievable! First time I saw a -400 points on the TSX. Good thing I ran away from the market like a sneaky little thief with a small profit a few hours ago!

[thefleet]

Do my eyes deceive me? Am I reading voodoo magic here? Trust me. The bottom is here, either today, or on Monday! Though we will soon move up from here, this is only a temporary bottom for the Dow. Another bottom is coming in a few months. In the mean time, enjoy the mini-bull run that is iminent.

Unbelievable! First time I saw a -400 points on the TSX. Good thing I ran away from the market like a sneaky little thief with a small profit a few hours ago!

How convenient :lol:

Anyways bloody red today, employment numbers will give direction tomorrow.

[fastlayne]

:arrowu: Too sweet! Intraday inverted head and shoulder on Dow Jones to shake out the remaining nervous weak hands. UP we go from here. -- Dateline 27-Jun-08

I was so torn (*not*) in piling on my short/bear positions over the last few weeks, in direct contradiction to questrader's predictions and commentary.

The next test will be in the 13,800 range on the TSX, which at this rate, could be this week. Completion of this head and shoulder formation (not inverted), could see the TSX touching 13,000. The current fall from 15,000 has seen a decline of 7%, in only 14 days. Just wait until oil corrects.

[winner2000]

Unbelievable! First time I saw a -400 points on the TSX. Good thing I ran away from the market like a sneaky little thief with a small profit a few hours ago!

HUH? Have you only been investing for 2-3 months or something?

[questrader]

In the market, you have to be able to change your mind very quickly, or else the market will take you down with it.

In the past, I've always tried to run like hell with a small loss. These days, I'm more aggressive in protecting my capital, so I'll run like hell with small profits, as opposed to small losses.

[monty613]

Unbelievable! First time I saw a -400 points on the TSX.

.......

[Igor01]

Busy day tomorrow, lots of data coming out, we might see some fireworks...

11:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 4.00%

12:30 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% 0.3%

12:30 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun) 3.5%

12:30 United States Average Weekly Hours (Jun) 33.7 33.7

12:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 21) 3139K

12:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech

12:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28) 384K

12:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) -55K -49K

12:30 United States Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.4% 5.5%

14:00 United States ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun) 51.7

[Bazooka Joe]

HUH? Have you only been investing for 2-3 months or something?

.......

Hey guise, March 19th 2008 was like ages ago and stuff.

(I love it when questrader shows us his mad skillz)

:lol:

[fastlayne]

Tomorrow will be a shortened trading day on the US markets, with both NYSE and NASDAQ closing at 1PM.

I don't imagine the buyers will be out going into an American long weekend.

[hagbard]

I've largely pulled out of the market. But frankly, I don't even think cash is safe.

[zoober]

I've largely pulled out of the market. But frankly, I don't even think cash is safe.

Real estate and pumpkin futures!

[hagbard]

Real estate and pumpkin futures!

Pumpkin futures maybe.

[advantage21]

Do my eyes deceive me? Am I reading voodoo magic here? Trust me. The bottom is here, either today, or on Monday! Though we will soon move up from here, this is only a temporary bottom for the Dow. Another bottom is coming in a few months. In the mean time, enjoy the mini-bull run that is iminent.

Unbelievable! First time I saw a -400 points on the TSX. Good thing I ran away from the market like a sneaky little thief with a small profit a few hours ago!

In the market, you have to be able to change your mind very quickly, or else the market will take you down with it.


Wow, that's like words of wisdom stuff. You should be on TV, maybe Jim Cramer can use you as a sidekick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nkZ3eHeXlc

[konfusion666]

In the market, you have to be able to change your mind very quickly, or else the market will take you down with it.

In the past, I've always tried to run like hell with a small loss. These days, I'm more aggressive in protecting my capital, so I'll run like hell with small profits, as opposed to small losses.

Actually, anybody who's kept up with this thread for at least a few months will know that you really have absolutely no f*cking idea what you're talking about.

And you can take THAT to the bank. :lol:

[Bullseye]

Actually, anybody who's kept up with this thread for at least a few months will know that you really have absolutely no f*cking idea what you're talking about.

And you can take THAT to the bank. :lol:

+1

Good entertainment value, though. :lol: Sort of like the phony mind readers at the carnival.

[metro]

HUH? Have you only been investing for 2-3 months or something?

BINGO...

[thefleet]

Actually, anybody who's kept up with this thread for at least a few months will know that you really have absolutely no f*cking idea what you're talking about.

And you can take THAT to the bank. :lol:

:razz: :!:

[matkun]

I've largely pulled out of the market. But frankly, I don't even think cash is safe.

Wooo for those us paying back student loans?

[Mgz]

nVidia stock tank 30.73% today :cheesygri

[Bazooka Joe]

Anyone know what's going on today? TSX is a mess...

Why are the trusts down?

[CoffeeAddict]

from the globe:
Oil fell to – can you believe it? – the low-low price of $139.57 (U.S.) a barrel in New York, down $5.72 a barrel, possibly because of reduced fears that Iran is about to join the nuclear club, and possibly because investors have the impression that the G8 annual summit will somehow put the global economy back on track.

[keipra]

Think I should of just stayed in bed this morning, down $21,235 and counting :|

[dealguy2]

Everyone expecting bad earnings reports

[pitz]

Everyone expecting bad earnings reports

Why would they be bad? Personally I'd expect them to be blowout particularly in the oil sector, where the analysts are still using $90/barrel in all their models.

[sexpuppet6000]

Why would they be bad? Personally I'd expect them to be blowout particularly in the oil sector, where the analysts are still using $90/barrel in all their models.

:twisted:

[pitz]

Yeah reminds me a lot of 2005 when all the analysts were only estimating $35/barrel and they seriously got caught with their pants down..

[Ryan5459]

Its interesting - if you look at many government budgets (ie. Alberta) the long term projection of oil is $70 a barrel. I wonder if they know something we dont.

BTW - I get a kick of of questrader and his magical ability to see in the future. I am sure he is making a mint by reading the tea leaves every morning at breakfast to see whether he should go short or go long on the TSX.

[Octavius]

Its interesting - if you look at many government budgets (ie. Alberta) the long term projection of oil is $70 a barrel. I wonder if they know something we dont.

BTW - I get a kick of of questrader and his magical ability to see in the future. I am sure he is making a mint by reading the tea leaves every morning at breakfast to see whether he should go short or go long on the TSX.

+1

I'm hoping the TSX goes down to 12,800~13,000 so I can load up on more mutual funds :D

[LoookingForDeals]

In the market, you have to be able to change your mind very quickly, or else the market will take you down with it.

In the past, I've always tried to run like hell with a small loss. These days, I'm more aggressive in protecting my capital, so I'll run like hell with small profits, as opposed to small losses.

Interesting comment. Perhaps a different perspective should be considered.

In any investment/business scenario you need to be able analyze information quickly in order to make sound decisions, then act decisively on the decision. You need to be able to change your view quickly, but only based on sound information, not on emotion & speculation.

Diligent analysis & information may tell you that you've made a bad investment/business choice, or that the particular choice will not turn a profit no matter what you do. It may also, lead to more losses that can not be avoided in any feasible manner.

In this case you must be able to change your view & accept facts, then act decisively to protect your capital. In many cases this might be to liquidate, sell, or cease operations.

[Capt.]

I started a position in the RBC Canadian Index fund yesterday. With a good sized drop yesterday and the transaction going through at the end of the business day (afaik) it may turn out to be good timing. Not that I'm trying to time anything though.

[inntents]

Quote:
Originally Posted by questrader

In the market, you have to be able to change your mind very quickly, or else the market will take you down with it.

In the past, I've always tried to run like hell with a small loss. These days, I'm more aggressive in protecting my capital, so I'll run like hell with small profits, as opposed to small losses.

Interesting comment. Perhaps a different perspective should be considered.

In any investment/business scenario you need to be able analyze information quickly in order to make sound decisions, then act decisively on the decision. You need to be able to change your view quickly, but only based on sound information, not on emotion & speculation.

Diligent analysis & information may tell you that you've made a bad investment/business choice, or that the particular choice will not turn a profit no matter what you do. It may also, lead to more losses that can not be avoided in any feasible manner.

In this case you must be able to change your view & accept facts, then act decisively to protect your capital. In many cases this might be to liquidate, sell, or cease operations.

Or else....

....Quote:
Originally Posted by konfusion666

Actually, anybody who's kept up with this thread for at least a few months will know that you really have absolutely no f*cking idea what you're talking about.

And you can take THAT to the bank.

[questrader]

:arrowu: Tell that to my trading account, buddy. +50K all on the house! My goal is to break +200K by year's end. Anyways...

***!!! TSX Has finally bottomed folks !!!***

***!!! Required 10% Correction on the TSX Thru and Done With !!!***

***!!! Dow Set For Mini-Bull Run Again After FED "Intervention" (See Today's Bernanke Speech)!!!***

[15-20_God]

:arrowu: Tell that to my trading account, buddy. +50K all on the house! My goal is to break +200K by year's end. Anyways...


so you're day trading at the casino now? I don't get it, are you betting on some sort of property?

you do offer good comedic relief though i must admit, any half-wit in investing can see through your bs. and any experienced traders or investors are probably gasping for air from all the laughter they get after reading your crock pot of knowledge. i can tell you that today was hot, and tomorrow will be to because it was today, unless it rains......mother nature said so on CNBC. and you can take that to pc financial.

[questrader]

so you're day trading at the casino now? I don't get it, are you betting on some sort of property?

:arrowu: Yawn... Nobody makes big $$$ day trading. The average pro day-trader makes ~$700/day. That's 182K max/year, assuming that they trade each working day of the year and excluding holidays.

To make BIGGER $$$, you gotta do a few long sprints once in a while.

And lol, I do post silly stuff here to unwind.

And FYI: I've already set my sight on the +200K breaker, just like how I told danielcarrera a while back the 4th consecutive big win was in place... :twisted:


... I'll let y'all know about it when my +200K golden egg hatches in September/October...

[Bullseye]

:arrowu: Yawn... Nobody makes big $$$ day trading. The average pro day-trader makes ~$700/day. That's 182K max/year, assuming that they trade each working day of the year and excluding holidays.

To make BIGGER $$$, you gotta do a few long sprints once in a while.

And lol, I do post silly stuff here to unwind.

And FYI: I've already set my sight on the +200K breaker, just like how I told danielcarrera a while back the 4th consecutive big win was in place... :twisted:


... I'll let y'all know about it when my +200K golden egg hatches in September/October...

So black out your personal info and post pics of your statements showing your 'big wins' there, hot shot.

[pitz]

Its easy to trade your way to gains in a bull market. The real test of a trader is how much he doesn't lose in a bear market.

IMHO, it takes a certain kind of arrogance for one to believe they can reliably beat the market with trading. That's why ~90% of my capital is indexxed.. (and yes, I do beat the market...but not significantly so).

[questrader]

:arrowu: I'd be happy to show you my trading summary towards the end of the year. But not right now.

Anyways, if what I wrote earlier sounds far-fetched, consider this:

Suppose you have a purchasing power of +150K in normal stocks (ie. stocks w/o options). All you have to do to make the +200K club by the year's end is to find a double bagger and pyramid your purchasing power into it. That's +150K profit + the +50K profit you made earlier = +200K profit.

Talk to people. I'm sure they've come across double baggers before. One gentleman on these forums even claim to have wanted a 10-bagger once in his lifetime!

[questrader]

certain kind of arrogance for one to believe they can reliably beat the market with trading

If you want to discount inflation, then I've already beat the market (set at +10% gain/year) for the next 10 years, 20 years otherwise.

[15-20_God]

oh yah? well my dad can beat up your dad.

[questrader]

:arrowu: I don't think so... My family has a genetic anomaly. My body is slim and compact, almost to the point of scrawny. But in the gym I can push 230 pounds of weight around easily. I know muscular guys twice my size, who can't even push with 190 pounds of weight!

[fastlayne]

One gentleman on these forums even claim to have wanted a 10-bagger once in his lifetime!

I want a 10-bagger twice in my lifetime. Now you can start quoting me.

And with respect to your TSX predictions and how it has "finally bottomed", here is my prediction - the TSX will see 12,000 before it sees 15,000 again.

[pitz]

Talk to people. I'm sure they've come across double baggers before. One gentleman on these forums even claim to have wanted a 10-bagger once in his lifetime!

Sure, but thats gambling not 'trading'. And I've a 100-bagger in my portfolio, but I'm not filthy rich because of it because I simply don't own enough shares.

(and no, it doesn't mean I'm a good trader, or even a trader at all...I just got very lucky in the late 1980s when I bought it..)

[controlyar]

:arrowu: Yawn... Nobody makes big $$$ day trading. The average pro day-trader makes ~$700/day. That's 182K max/year, assuming that they trade each working day of the year and excluding holidays.

To make BIGGER $$$, you gotta do a few long sprints once in a while.

And lol, I do post silly stuff here to unwind.

And FYI: I've already set my sight on the +200K breaker, just like how I told danielcarrera a while back the 4th consecutive big win was in place... :twisted:


... I'll let y'all know about it when my +200K golden egg hatches in September/October...

From asking to what margin is to becoming a day-trading guru?
http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=468359

Thanks for the laugh. I had a tough day today. :lol:

[questrader]

And I've a 100-bagger in my portfolio, but I'm not filthy rich because of it because I simply don't own enough shares.

That's the difference between you and me. You diversify to obtain your 100-bagger. But in the end, your profit is diluted because you don't know which is the 100-bagger.

Warren Buffett: "Diversification is for people who don't know how to invest."

[questrader]

Thanks for the laugh. I had a tough day today.

You wouldn't be laughing if you knew my age. 20's something wanting to make +200K by the year's end? How far fetched!

Actually, what's more far-fetched is having a 20's-something year old's trading account fully funded by the house's money (ie. profit money), giving him +150K of purchasing power, all on the house... Who's laughing now?

[Bazooka Joe]

From asking to what margin is to becoming a day-trading guru?
http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/showthread.php?t=468359

Thanks for the laugh. I had a tough day today. :lol:

He also has never seen the TSX drop 400 points despite the fact it's happened multiple times in the last 6 months.

Obvious troll IMO. I'd be surprised if he's got 10k in mutual funds.

[questrader]

He also has never seen the TSX drop 400 points despite the fact it's happened multiple times in the last 6 months.

Don't be so nit picky. It's been a while since I saw 400 points, hence the shock value. When you're trading intensely, 1 week seems like a month, and a month 1 year.

[pitz]

That's the difference between you and me. You diversify to obtain your 100-bagger. But in the end, your profit is diluted because you don't know which is the 100-bagger.


Actually I was just a kid with some paper route money :).

[sexpuppet6000]

questrader is funny! :o

[inntents]

You wouldn't be laughing if you knew my age. 20's something wanting to make +200K by the year's end? How far fetched!

Actually, what's more far-fetched is having a 20's-something year old's trading account fully funded by the house's money (ie. profit money), giving him +150K of purchasing power, all on the house... Who's laughing now?

Pretty much anyone who's reading this!

Don't be so nit picky. It's been a while since I saw 400 points, hence the shock value. When you're trading intensely, 1 week seems like a month, and a month 1 year.

Ooooooooooooooh.......................Aaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaah!

:lol:

[fastlayne]

You wouldn't be laughing if you knew my age. 20's something wanting to make +200K by the year's end? How far fetched!

Actually, what's more far-fetched is having a 20's-something year old's trading account fully funded by the house's money (ie. profit money), giving him +150K of purchasing power, all on the house... Who's laughing now?

Word of the Day:

farfetched
adj 1: highly imaginative but unlikely; "a farfetched excuse";
"an implausible explanation"

[jcoltage]

:arrowu: I don't think so... My family has a genetic anomaly. My body is slim and compact, almost to the point of scrawny. But in the gym I can push 230 pounds of weight around easily. I know muscular guys twice my size, who can't even push with 190 pounds of weight!

Oh that sounds like a challenge to me .. I am 170 yet I can leg/calve press above 330 per leg? and I push around over 170 with ease for upper body strength ... so don't think of yourself like Hitlers secret race child cause many people sub200 could probably take you with ease.

If you could do 300 then you would have my respect but 230 is chump change in weights - so stop comparing yourself to 16 year olds.


back on topic .. I am going gold / RIM stock sell in Late August.

[Octavius]

:arrowu: Tell that to my trading account, buddy. +50K all on the house! My goal is to break +200K by year's end. Anyways...

***!!! TSX Has finally bottomed folks !!!***

***!!! Required 10% Correction on the TSX Thru and Done With !!!***

***!!! Dow Set For Mini-Bull Run Again After FED "Intervention" (See Today's Bernanke Speech)!!!***

Down another 200~ points since you last posted this...

I'm sure it was an accident and that you meant to post that comment today :|

(Edit: I'm not saying that the TSX has bottomed out, I know better)

[cutesnoopydoll]

Red bloody day today...US banks are going down..

[winner2000]

Red bloody day today...US banks are going down..

Banks going back up! Bernanke saves the day....again! (with another bandaid)

[rosebud]

it's 1929 rearing its ugly head.

bail out!

[rosebud]

Almost 3 weeks ago I invested $200 in the CIBC Latin America Mutual Fund.

Down almost 10%........ lost $20. :(

[King James]

Banks going back up! Bernanke saves the day....again! (with another bandaid)

It doesn't seem to work.

[B0000rt]

Poor LEH.

[Bazooka Joe]

Thank goodness I bought when questrader said that the market had bottomed out (what was that, 600 points ago?) :lol:

Looking pretty grim this AM, 250 points down in a half hour. I figured this would have happened yesterday though with all the mortgage nonsense over the weekend (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the bail out - I mean loan :))

What could go wrong with two companies holding 50% of the mortgage market in the US going belly up?

:D

[funkylist]

WFT TSX -453 @ 11:35

[sucka]

yeah, it's being pounded right now .... not surprisingly though.

[thefleet]

hurrah for shorts :cheesygri

[zoober]

This is brutal.

[djjosee]

My retirement plan has just been extended by 5 years :(

[iempwnage]

I've lost $800 today. God damnit.......

[inntents]

Questrader?
Questrader?
.......................................Questrader?

[zoober]

Questrader?
Questrader?
.......................................Questrader?

Is it his straw that drank my milk shake? Drank it up?!

[fastlayne]

Questrader?
Questrader?
.......................................Questrader?

He has been MIA for almost 2 weeks, just about the time summer school started.:)

[inntents]

Questrader?
Questrader?
.......................................Questrader?

He has been MIA for almost 2 weeks, just about the time summer school started.:)

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[DTOM]

Anyone have any idea why the Canadian banks are up so sharply today?

[hagbard]

Anyone have any idea why the Canadian banks are up so sharply today?

TD has hovered around $65 for a few weeks now, it dropped to $53 a few days ago and now its around $57. Market manipulation?

[Keetla]

Pretty much all financials (and the entire market except for basic materials) is up today. Wells Fargo posted better than expected results. It doesn't have much to do with the Canadian banks in particular.

[B0000rt]

Pretty much all financials (and the entire market except for basic materials) is up today. Wells Fargo posted better than expected results. It doesn't have much to do with the Canadian banks in particular.

What the heck is up with LEH!??!?

[bcbgboy13]

Pretty much all financials (and the entire market except for basic materials) is up today. Wells Fargo posted better than expected results. It doesn't have much to do with the Canadian banks in particular.

One of the reasons could be the emergency banning by SEC of short selling for 19 major financial institutions. This and the impeding new shorts report for TSX due Friday after the close "gently reminded" the shorters to cover their financial exposure - more buyers than sellers ====> price goes up.

[jcoltage]

Questrader?
Questrader?
.......................................Questrader?

No he is still hiding since I made my threat calling him weak and I could beat his ass down.

Ebay looks like it is going thru its own 2000 bubble ... man that stock is the black plague right now but it is up 5% this morning.

[AllWheelDrift]

Looks like things are going downhill again.

And I'd just like to say this thread really loses it's entertainment value without questrader around plus it's wreaking havok on my fool proof investment strategy of doing the opposite of everything he says.

[Bazooka Joe]

USD is up, which means the TSX gets another big helping of hurt...

I had a co-worker bail on the market at 14,800 and he advised me to do the same... kinda wish I had.

[Wat_Da_Dealio]

What a weird market. Glad I didn't panic and sell.
I was down $30,000 a few weeks ago but now I'm only down $15,000!

In a couple of years I'll be up, I don't mind paying a bit of margin interest until then.
Wish I could buy more good companies now while they're so low, but don't have the cash and have too much margin debt.

[Thalo]

I finally posted my first capital gain of the year, buying at the bottom last week and selling this week. Bear? Shmear!

[Thalo]

When did Cramer pump it, at $74?

Never invest in a fad.

[iempwnage]

Has anyone invested in Kinross Gold Corp? (K=tsx, KGC=nyse)

I bought alot of shares at $18.89 (KGC) friday morning, in a week or two they should be at their norm: $22.5-$24.5.

[Bazooka Joe]

Copper and nickel are way down over the weekend. Guess what that means for our resource-based index. Off to a rocky start with no where to go but down.

[SpillOnAisle9]

Has anyone invested in Kinross Gold Corp? (K=tsx, KGC=nyse)

I bought alot of shares at $18.89 (KGC) friday morning, in a week or two they should be at their norm: $22.5-$24.5.

Don't own it....just looked at the MACD and the trigger line says sell. But the
stochastic shows over-sold. I'm not a big believer in the technical analysis voodoo
....especially when I get mixed signals like this one. My broker (WG) is good
at it though. He made me a few grand on Visa, RIMM and even BCE using
technical analysis. But he knows whats he's doing......I only know enough to
be dangerous to myself and others :(

[Thalo]

Has anyone invested in Kinross Gold Corp? (K=tsx, KGC=nyse)

I bought alot of shares at $18.89 (KGC) friday morning, in a week or two they should be at their norm: $22.5-$24.5.

Really, in a week or two? Guaranteed? What if gold continues its current downtrend?

Not saying it's a doomed stock or anything, you're buying it at a better price now than if it were in the 20s, but you might have unrealistic expectations when buying stocks if you think it'll turn around in a week or two. It could take a year or two, just beware.

[stevethewheel]

Ladies and Gents. This is a good thread to keep going, please don't get into specific stock tips and speculation.

It's one thing to talk about "the price of a barrel of oil", but a different thing to name names of individual companies and target share prices, etc.

It would be a shame if Questrader came back to comment and found it locked...

[pitz]

Geez. Most of the oil majors trading at 3-4X cashflow.

Craziness.

[monty613]

iempwnage - 2 weeks ago Kinross made an cash+stock offer to buy Aurelian. You will need more than 2 weeks to see it hit $24 again.

Oh and I laughed my ass off when I read the post about the broker who uses technical analysis and "knows what he's doing". He knows what he's doing alright - churning his clients accounts!

[SpillOnAisle9]

Oh and I laughed my ass off when I read the post about the broker who uses technical analysis and "knows what he's doing". He knows what he's doing alright - churning his clients accounts!

That was my comment. There's no churn, all orders are solicited. If I don't
like the buy/sell point it doesn't happen. This is just the corporate USD
account that makes more money than it sitting in the bank.

Like I said, I don't drink the kool-aid, but he's made me a few grand since
I gave him the account.

[monty613]

That was my comment. There's no churn, all orders are solicited. If I don't
like the buy/sell point it doesn't happen. This is just the corporate USD
account that makes more money than it sitting in the bank.

Like I said, I don't drink the kool-aid, but he's made me a few grand since
I gave him the account.

Fair enough. As long as you know how the system works and how he's compensated. I just find brokers with that "style" have an incentive to churn or trade very actively, as that's the only way they'll generate commission on the portfolio.

If you have the time you should learn how to DIY and open a discount brokerage account. Might save a few bucks.

[SpillOnAisle9]

Oh I've got the discount brokerage account too; registered and un-registered

I sometimes bet against him....when he sells out of a position in the corporation
I will pick it up in the non-reg account. This hasn't worked very well for me
so far...another reason I think he definitely knows more than I do about the
voodoo (that was kinda funny)

I'm also thinking of setting up a couch-potato basket in another account
too....spread the risk as it were.

Cheers

[batman321123]

Geez. Most of the oil majors trading at 3-4X cashflow.

Craziness.

Soooo... what does that mean?

I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to fundamental analysis.

[metro]

Really, in a week or two? Guaranteed? What if gold continues its current downtrend?

Not saying it's a doomed stock or anything, you're buying it at a better price now than if it were in the 20s, but you might have unrealistic expectations when buying stocks if you think it'll turn around in a week or two. It could take a year or two, just beware.

Good point. Kinross is down to 17 and change...

[zoober]

It seems that a lot of people are betting that gold hitted bottom on Friday.

I wouldn't bet on it just yet. If the US dollar keeps moving up, oil and gold will keep their downward momentum.

[Thalo]

Gold hitted bottom? What are you, a LOLCAT?

[Thalo]

I quickly created a crudely photoshopped image to illustrate my point about your use of the english language.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v417/Thalo/goldhittedbottom.jpg

[zoober]

I quickly created a crudely photoshopped image to illustrate my point about your use of the english language.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v417/Thalo/goldhittedbottom.jpg


Pure gold, thanks for the laugh.

[Thalo]

Aw.... he deleted his posts.