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View Full Version : Re: Lotto 649 commercial "odds"

Sonbuster
Apr 17th, 2007, 01:19 PM
Odds of getting striken by lightning = 1:576,000 (http://funny2.com/odds.htm)

Odds of winning Lotto 649= 1:13,983,816 (http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/howtoplay.do?game=lotto649)

"think that the odds of getting striken by lightning is as likely as winning the lottery; think again" - from the commercial

I SURE HOPE IT IS; I'D FEEL SAFER!
UrbanPoet
Apr 17th, 2007, 01:27 PM
then how come lightning strike victims never get reported on the news?
wouldnt being striked by lightning kill you? If it happened 3 times as often as winning the lottery why dont they report these so people will take lightning strike safety precautions?
stevethewheel
Apr 17th, 2007, 01:30 PM
You don't have to buy a ticket for the lightning 'lottery'.

Not everyone who is struck by lightning dies.

If you've played baseball or golf then you should be very aware of lightning safety.
tkyoshi
Apr 17th, 2007, 01:33 PM
then how come lightning strike victims never get reported on the news?
wouldnt being striked by lightning kill you? If it happened 3 times as often as winning the lottery why dont they report these so people will take lightning strike safety precautions?

I suppose people are not interested in those kinds of stories, they only report what is exciting.
mahpoaht
Apr 17th, 2007, 01:35 PM
I suppose people are not interested in those kinds of stories, they only report what is exciting.

A story of a guy get struck by lightning 7 times and still alive is exciting ;)
Diamondog
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:20 PM
then how come lightning strike victims never get reported on the news?
wouldnt being striked by lightning kill you? If it happened 3 times as often as winning the lottery why dont they report these so people will take lightning strike safety precautions?

lightning is five hundred and change THOUSAND, lightning is thirteen and change MILLION making lightning 24 times more than winning!
sparx
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:20 PM
My ex's sister-in-law was struck by lighting twice.
walleye*guy
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:23 PM
Running those odds.....
you have a better chance (1 in 13,824,000) of getting hit by lightning 24 times than winning the lotters
smilodon
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:38 PM
Well, aren't the odds of being struck by lightning somewhat dependent upon your geographical area? Some areas see a lot of lightning storms and others never see a single lightning bolt in years. How can the odds be the same?

In some areas, I'd see the odds of being struck by lightning even lower than the odds of winning the 6/49 Lotto.

On another line of thought, do we say "being struck" or "being stricken"?
Justin
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:40 PM
How does the lotto 649 lightning saying go?
TapemanPL
Apr 17th, 2007, 03:42 PM
people who get struck by lightning gets on the news all the time but they don't make a big deal out of it
ie. "the storm today is getting stronger, one man was struck by lightning, we expect more rain and stronger winds later in the day"

they'll just throw the someone got struck by lightning in the middle of the sentence just to let you know but not to make a big fuss about it
gamer123
Apr 17th, 2007, 04:04 PM
IMHO I think 649/Super7 lotto stuffs are waste of $. Perhaps you may win $5/$10 here and there, but if you saved all those $ spent on buying lottos, it would be quite a bit. In fact you'll probably get more $ if you put them in bank lol
walleye*guy
Apr 17th, 2007, 04:12 PM
IMHO I think 649/Super7 lotto stuffs are waste of $. Perhaps you may win $5/$10 here and there, but if you saved all those $ spent on buying lottos, it would be quite a bit. In fact you'll probably get more $ if you put them in bank lol
ah yes - but for a twoonie a week, it's a pretty nice dream.....


and lightning does sometimes strikes 24 times.....
abu_sme
Apr 17th, 2007, 04:15 PM
lightning is five hundred and change THOUSAND, lightning is thirteen and change MILLION making lightning 24 times more than winning!

That is not correct.

Your odds of getting struck by lighting are twice are 1:576,000 squared

so the odds of getting struck by lighting twice are 1:331,776,000,000


There are obvious externalities which result in people getting struck more than once.
Mulder and Scully
Apr 17th, 2007, 05:28 PM
IMHO I think 649/Super7 lotto stuffs are waste of $. Perhaps you may win $5/$10 here and there, but if you saved all those $ spent on buying lottos, it would be quite a bit. In fact you'll probably get more $ if you put them in bank lol

People buy lottery tickets for hope and if for only $2 a person can have hope for a few days then so be it. People spend even more on coffee each day but no one ever sh*ts up a thread over that. Now I'm sure you're going to say that coffee is a drink/food for nourishment but hope is emotional nourishment.
aidzhsiah
Apr 17th, 2007, 06:51 PM
IMHO I think 649/Super7 lotto stuffs are waste of $. Perhaps you may win $5/$10 here and there, but if you saved all those $ spent on buying lottos, it would be quite a bit. In fact you'll probably get more $ if you put them in bank lol
I think my old statistics teacher told us that lotto tickets are "stupidity tax" because only people who are dumb enough not to understand probability would pay for them.

Having said that, I still buy lotto tickets regularly LOL I never buy more than $2 though... hey you never know when you're going to be a statistical anamoly :D
wilson.311
Apr 18th, 2007, 01:12 PM
interesting facts.. :)
robattoronto
Apr 18th, 2007, 01:30 PM
Thats why you create a lottery pool at work and buy $100+ worth of tickets and increase the chances of a win.

Odds of getting striken by lightning = 1:576,000 (http://funny2.com/odds.htm)

Odds of winning Lotto 649= 1:13,983,816 (http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/howtoplay.do?game=lotto649)

"think that the odds of getting striken by lightning is as likely as winning the lottery; think again" - from the commercial

I SURE HOPE IT IS; I'D FEEL SAFER!
elemenopee
Apr 18th, 2007, 01:34 PM
If you've played baseball or golf then you should be very aware of lightning safety.

Reminds me of one of my favorite golf quotes:

"If you're caught on a golf course during a storm and are afraid of lightning, hold up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron."
-Lee Trevino, who incidentally almost died in 1975 from being struck by lightning while golfing
Jim123
Apr 19th, 2007, 07:50 AM
The odds of being hit by lightning are rather meaningless if you don't know the time period for those odds. Are they the odds of being hit in a day, a week, a month, a year, lifetime?

We know the odds for the lottery ticket are if you buy a single ticket in the weekly draw. In order to be comparable, you would need the odds of being hit by lightning in the same time period.
stevethewheel
Apr 19th, 2007, 11:52 AM
The odds of being hit by lightning are rather meaningless if you don't know the time period for those odds. Are they the odds of being hit in a day, a week, a month, a year, lifetime?

We know the odds for the lottery ticket are if you buy a single ticket in the weekly draw. In order to be comparable, you would need the odds of being hit by lightning in the same time period.

For lightning, it is the timespan of your life.

You can compare the odds if you buy one lottery ticket in your life.

If you buy more than one lottery ticket then you are buying more than one 'lifetime' and to compare odds you'd have to get more complex.

If you buy 10 lottery tickets then compare the odds against one of a group of 10 people being hit by lightning. It is more likely you will win the lottery if you have 10 tickets in your life, it is also more likely that one of a group of 10 people will be hit than just one person alone.
actuary
Apr 19th, 2007, 12:11 PM
According to the OLG's website, the return on the 6/49 is 47%.

In other words, for every $2 ticket you purchase, on average, you win $0.94.
UrbanPoet
Apr 19th, 2007, 12:19 PM
According to the OLG's website, the return on the 6/49 is 47%.

In other words, for every $2 ticket you purchase, on average, you win $0.94.

from what i noticed in the 13 lotto pools i run... thats not exactly true... maybe a lil less...
i remember the $1000 lotto pool i had.. it only returned $300 something.
actuary
Apr 19th, 2007, 12:20 PM
Also of note, the return on the Encore bet on a 6/49 ticket is $0.544 or 54.4%.

So the return on a $3 6/49 ticket with Encore is 49.5%, or $1.484.
actuary
Apr 19th, 2007, 12:27 PM
from what i noticed in the 13 lotto pools i run... thats not exactly true... maybe a lil less...
i remember the $1000 lotto pool i had.. it only returned $300 something.

You only have a small sample to compare to the true return. If you exclude the jackpot, the return is closer to what your pools have returned. For example, the last draw's jackpot accounted for 62% of the prize fund, leaving a return of 29.1%, which is very close to your 30% return ($300/$1000).

http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/howtoplay.do?game=lotto649

Scroll down to find this:

"47% of LOTTO 6/49 draw sales is dedicated to the Prize Fund. The total amount of $5 and $10 prizes are paid from the Prize Fund and the balance of the fund (the Pools Fund) is then allocated between the 4/6, 5/6, 5/6 + Bonus and 6/6 prize categories as indicated in the table above. Any amount not won in the 6/6 or 5/6 + Bonus prize categories is added to the 6/6 Jackpot prize for the next draw."