Hockey News predicts LEAFS to finish 8th in East !

[poedua]

Found this on another forum from the The Sporting News 2005-06 Yearbook and predictions for this year.

They also have their team grades and predictions. Here they are:

Team: Grade Predicted standing


Philly:............... A ....... 1st in east

Tampa Bay:....... A- ....... 2nd in east

Ottawa:........... A- ....... 3rd in east

Boston:............ B+ ....... 4th in east

New Jersey: ..... B+ ....... 5th in east

Pittsburgh:........ B ....... 6th in east

Atlanta:........... B- ....... 7th in east

Toronto .......... B- ....... 8th in east



Reason for Toronto's 8th place standing?

1. Belfour's back.

2. Lack of depth on D and at forward, especially on the wing and no youth or up and comers to fill the holes.

You wonder if the LEAFS shouldn't have taken a page out of Bobby Clarke's book....Pittburgh and Atlanta ahead of T.O. ?

No idea how the rest got ranked in the East........

Montreal
Florida
NY Islanders
Rangers
Buffalo
Carolina
Washington

[bluetroll]

leafs will do better than new jersey.... and pittsburgh, i honestly don't think they are as good as ppl make them out to be, even with crosby.

philly gave up a lot to get what they have in return... not to mention their wallet which they had to open up.... buying out all those players.... the problem is not with this year, but it's with the next few years... i think ferg is doing the right thing, you don't want to be on the books for players because you honestly don't know what is in the horizon for hockey. There will be an abundance of free agents coming out the next few years, especially with the age of free agency going lower each successive season...

[mallik]

leafs will do better than new jersey.... and pittsburgh, i honestly don't think they are as good as ppl make them out to be, even with crosby.

philly gave up a lot to get what they have in return... not to mention their wallet which they had to open up.... buying out all those players.... the problem is not with this year, but it's with the next few years... i think ferg is doing the right thing, you don't want to be on the books for players because you honestly don't know what is in the horizon for hockey. There will be an abundance of free agents coming out the next few years, especially with the age of free agency going lower each successive season...

New Jersey always manages to do good somehow, so I wouldn't count them out. As far as Pittsburgh, if Lemieux plays even 60 games, I think he'll win the scoring title and Pittsburgh will make the playoffs. Even without him, they still have a pretty good team, but I don't know if they could make the playoffs. We'll have to see how good Crosby is.

What do you mean Philly gave up a lot to get what they have? They bought out only two players for about 7 million, which is likely what the Leafs will end up paying Owen Nolan. I think Bobby Clarke is smart who, even though he has had unlimited money to spend, has developed some great young talent.

As for the Leafs, I don't know what JFJ is doing because they seem like a boat paddling with only one oar. As usual for the Leafs, everything rests on goaltending, only this time the goaltender is 40 yrs. old with a bad back. And if he didn't want to be on the books for players because of the unknown landscape, why did he sign Belfour to so much before the lockout? During his tenure here, he has done pretty much nothing. He has no power to fire the dinosaur coach that they have, and all he has done is bring in players that were pretty much begging to play for Toronto at a discount. He has made changes with the scouting and farm team, which is good, but not much has been done with the big club.

I think banking on signing free agents could lead to trouble. Teams are trying to lock up their free agents, as evident this year. Even if some were available, they would be able to only get a few due to the cap. I think Clarke has shown the right way to do things. Develop young players, and then complement them with free agent signings.

[NDman]

I hope Pittsburgh will make the playoffs. They can easily be the most improved team in terms of point total and output, I think.

As for the Leafs, anywhere between 6th-8th sounds about right. They'll have to put up a decent fight for the playoff spot

[Ziggy007]

I think everyone should remember that the divional matchups play huge now. Ottawa probably will end up third because Tampa will get to play each of its junker teams 8 times / year. Toronto has to deal with Ottawa/Boston/Montreal/Buffalo for half its schedule which will make wins hard to come by there.

Pittsburgh is a bit of a question mark. They have to play Philly nad NJ a lot. NYI or Rangers aren't completely free wins either. Also, their offence seems good but we have to see how Mario, Recchi, and Leclair handle the wear and tear of a season.

[poedua]

I think everyone should remember that the divional matchups play huge now. Ottawa probably will end up third because Tampa will get to play each of its junker teams 8 times / year. Toronto has to deal with Ottawa/Boston/Montreal/Buffalo for half its schedule which will make wins hard to come by there.

Pittsburgh is a bit of a question mark. They have to play Philly nad NJ a lot. NYI or Rangers aren't completely free wins either. Also, their offence seems good but we have to see how Mario, Recchi, and Leclair handle the wear and tear of a season.

Good points.....anyone heard how good / bad Montreal and Buffalo are ?


Just heard Buffalo has a pretty fast team and the new rules may work in their favour - which not be a good thing for the Leafs

[yayawhoo2003]

I'm betting on Montreal to finish higher than 9th.. I think Philly will choke especially if forsberg and hatcher dont perform as aspected.

Toronto will manage to finish at least 5th I think. They may not have youth but they never realy do.

[Carnage]

Pittsburgh is a bit of a question mark. They have to play Philly nad NJ a lot. NYI or Rangers aren't completely free wins either. Also, their offence seems good but we have to see how Mario, Recchi, and Leclair handle the wear and tear of a season.

But more important is the fact that Pittsburgh has no deffence. They've got offensive talent on the blue line, but next to no defensive tallent.

They look like they're just going to be trying to outscore their opponents. Gonna be some high scoring games there.

[mallik]

Good points.....anyone heard how good / bad Montreal and Buffalo are ?


Just heard Buffalo has a pretty fast team and the new rules may work in their favour - which not be a good thing for the Leafs

Yeah, Buffalo has young, fast team, and Montreal is pretty deep too. It's a toss up whether they will do well, but I think Buffalo has more of a chance.

They may end up being better than the Leafs, but I think Ottawa and Boston are for sure.

[Carnage]

They may end up being better than the Leafs, but I think Ottawa and Boston are for sure.

Ottawa I can understand.

But I don't really see Boston being all that much of a powerhouse.

[mallik]

But more important is the fact that Pittsburgh has no deffence. They've got offensive talent on the blue line, but next to no defensive tallent.

They look like they're just going to be trying to outscore their opponents. Gonna be some high scoring games there.

They have Tarnstrom and Jackman who are pretty good, and Orpik may prove to be good too. I'm wondering if it would've been better for them to go after somebody like Foote instead of Gonchar. Gonchar can feed the long bomb passes to Lemieux and Crosby though, so he may prove to be valuable.

[Cheezy]

Well i think the Leafs will finish in the middle of the pack(4th or 5th) with Ottawa the runaway leader in the Eastern Conference (perhaps the whole league?)
The Habs will finish better than the Pens maybe 7th , with Crosby /Lemieux and Company just squeaking into the playoffs.
Then the real season starts(playoffs) and who knows what will happen then, obviously for the Leafs staying healthy is the Key Factor.

[poedua]

They have Tarnstrom and Jackman who are pretty good, and Orpik may prove to be good too. I'm wondering if it would've been better for them to go after somebody like Foote instead of Gonchar. Gonchar can feed the long bomb passes to Lemieux and Crosby though, so he may prove to be valuable.

Doesn't Boston have a good young goalie too ?

Not sure who's b/n the pipes for Buffalo.

[stealth]

Leafs above Atl and NJ, maybe Boston, but thats about it.
Placing so much on Belfour's back seems foolish. They have other strong goalies in the system now to give Eddie some rest, while having time to develop. I'd still like to see them trade Tellqvist for Legace, or one of the Wild's goalies... that would be a great combo.
I dont see TB doing anywhere near as well as what they're predicting...Does this writer know about the trades? TB's trades did not improve their team at all.

The prob. with the Leafs, and always has been, is they seem to select players who largely for one reason or another havent achieved their total potential (or at least, not in a long while). This makes them very difficult to forecast, and almost DEPENDS on a dramatic career yr from these players, which cant be predicted. I dont personally think of Quinn as a guy who maxes out player potential in the same way other more "hands on" coaches do. Not exactly known as a "my door is always" open kind of coach. He'll be great in upper mgt though.

[poedua]

Leafs above Atl and NJ, maybe Boston, but thats about it.
Placing so much on Belfour's back seems foolish. They have other strong goalies in the system now to give Eddie some rest, while having time to develop. I'd still like to see them trade Tellqvist for Legace, or one of the Wild's goalies... that would be a great combo.
.

Good point on the goalies.

I mean, if Balfour goes down on certain nights or for a stretch , does anyone really think Tellqvist can fill the gap ?

If need be, can Tellqvist really carry the Leafs during the playoffs ? And on the playoffs, if Balfour becomes an issue and can't carry the workload during the regular season, if the Leafs don't trade for a goalie as you say, going with Tellqvist may keep the Leafs out of the playoffs this year IMHO.

The Leafs missing the playoffs - wouldn't THAT be something !

[mallik]

Doesn't Boston have a good young goalie too ?

Not sure who's b/n the pipes for Buffalo.

Yeah, Boston has Raycroft, who can hopefully repeat his performance from last season. Buffalo is pretty loaded at goaltending, with Biron, Noronen, and Miller.

I think Boston will be a good team, but they have to get Boynton signed. They have one of the best top lines in the league, and good youth in Bergeron and possibly Boyes (Leafs fans will probably recognize that name). They also have an Orr, and I think the last one they had turned out to be pretty good. :D

[2000fordfocus]

montreal will take over the leafs... they are looking real good..

[poedua]

montreal will take over the leafs... they are looking real good..

Are you saying Montreal will finish 8th and the Leafs won't make the playoffs ?

BTW - who's in net for Montreal ?

[evman150]

BTW - who's in net for Montreal ?

Are you serious?

I see the Leafs finishing somewhere around 8-12. They are just not a very good team and when the injuries hit, they will be a very poor team.

My eastern conference:

Ott
Phi
TB
Mon
Bos
NJ
Pit
Atl
---
Buf
Nyi
Tor
Fla
Nyr
Car
Wsh

[poedua]

Are you serious?

I see the Leafs finishing somewhere around 8-12. They are just not a very good team and when the injuries hit, they will be a very poor team.

My eastern conference:

Ott
Phi
TB
Mon
Bos
NJ
Pit
Atl
---
Buf
Nyi
Tor
Fla
Nyr
Car
Wsh

There's nothing the Habs have done to suggest that they are materially better than the Leafs - picking up Radek Bonk is the only key addition it seems and losing Brisebois and Quintal may make the defense suspect - if anything, the Leafs and Habs are at par with one another. Better hope Theodore continues his level of play and doesn't ' tank ' like he did in 2002/2003.

[mallik]

There's nothing the Habs have done to suggest that they are materially better than the Leafs - picking up Radek Bonk is the only key addition it seems and losing Brisebois and Quintal may make the defense suspect - if anything, the Leafs and Habs are at par with one another. Better hope Theodore continues his level of play and doesn't ' tank ' like he did in 2002/2003.

I think the Habs are better than the Leafs in almost every aspect. They are a good skating team, which could prove to be important with the new rules. The Defence of both teams is close, but I would give the edge to Montreal. Toronto's defence drops off a bit after the top 2. Montreal got rid of Brisebois, but that is more like addition by subtraction. They replaced him with Dandenault, who can play both D and the wing. He is kind of like Belak, except he actually has some talent.

I would give the edge in offence to Montreal too, who can roll with 3 solid, speedy lines. They added Bonk like you mentioned, and they managed to keep Kovalev. They still have Ryder and Ribeiro who both had only about 10 fewer pts. than Mr. Clutch Sundin, and are only going to get better. Lets not forget the young guys like Hainsey (on D), Higgins, and Perezhogin. The Leafs could end up being better, but Allison and Lindros would have to get back to their old form.

Goaltending I would have to give the edge to the Habs too. Theodore proved that his Hart trophy season was no fluke. Even in his "off" season he didn't do that bad, and he didn't have the Habs' number 1 defenceman in front of him that season.

I think Gainey is going to show that the Leafs F'ed up by not hiring him when they had the chance.

[poedua]

I think the Habs are better than the Leafs in almost every aspect. They are a good skating team, which could prove to be important with the new rules. The Defence of both teams is close, but I would give the edge to Montreal. Toronto's defence drops off a bit after the top 2. Montreal got rid of Brisebois, but that is more like addition by subtraction. They replaced him with Dandenault, who can play both D and the wing. He is kind of like Belak, except he actually has some talent.

I would give the edge in offence to Montreal too, who can roll with 3 solid, speedy lines. They added Bonk like you mentioned, and they managed to keep Kovalev. They still have Ryder and Ribeiro who both had only about 10 fewer pts. than Mr. Clutch Sundin, and are only going to get better. Lets not forget the young guys like Hainsey (on D), Higgins, and Perezhogin. The Leafs could end up being better, but Allison and Lindros would have to get back to their old form.

Goaltending I would have to give the edge to the Habs too. Theodore proved that his Hart trophy season was no fluke. Even in his "off" season he didn't do that bad, and he didn't have the Habs' number 1 defenceman in front of him that season.

I think Gainey is going to show that the Leafs F'ed up by not hiring him when they had the chance.

Again, I don'yt doubt the Habs have talent, but they are at par with the Leafs overall at forward and defence and goal - the overall net differences between the 2 teams is very minor. There are no significant differences to speak of - differences which ARE present when they're compared to the likes of Ottawa of Philly

Actually, you could argue the goal edge goes to Belfour - he edged out Theodore in wins, shutouts and goals against average in 2003 / 2004 - at best - the goalies are dead even in talent and stats.

[mallik]

Again, I don'yt doubt the Habs have talent, but they are at par with the Leafs overall at forward and defence and goal - the overall net differences between the 2 teams is very minor. There are no significant differences to speak of - differences which ARE present when they're compared to the likes of Ottawa of Philly

Actually, you could argue the goal edge goes to Belfour - he edged out Theodore in wins, shutouts and goals against average in 2003 / 2004 - at best - the goalies are dead even in talent and stats.

Yeah, I don't think there are significant differences between them like there is when you compare them to Ottawa or Philly, but I think the Habs will surprise this year. I guess it's because after power rankings and predictions came out, I keep reading posts saying things like "How is Montreal higher than the Leafs?" "How is Montreal so high?" and "The Leafs are much better than Montreal."

I wouldn't give the goalie edge to Belfour though. Their stats from 03/04 are similar, but Montreal's defence was worse than the Leafs (as impossible as it may seem) and they were missing their number 1 defenceman for a quarter of the season.

[evman150]

It's not that Montreal is that great. It's that Toronto sucks that bad.

McCabe
Kaberle
Klee
Khavanov
Berg
Wosniewski
(Belak)

Excuse me? That is HORRID. McCabe couldn't even hack it in Sweden.

Guys like Wilm, Kilger and Perrott in your starting lineup? And this is a team that's supposed to make the playoffs?

A geriatric in goal? What?

Leaf fans are totally blind to the world outside the centre of the universe.

I am not anti-Leaf at all. I even cheered for them against Carolina in 2002. I am just able to call a spade a spade. This team sucks.

[poedua]

It's not that Montreal is that great. It's that Toronto sucks that bad.

McCabe
Kaberle
Klee
Khavanov
Berg
Wosniewski
(Belak)

Excuse me? That is HORRID. McCabe couldn't even hack it in Sweden.

Guys like Wilm, Kilger and Perrott in your starting lineup? And this is a team that's supposed to make the playoffs?

A geriatric in goal? What?

Leaf fans are totally blind to the world outside the centre of the universe.

I am not anti-Leaf at all. I even cheered for them against Carolina in 2002. I am just able to call a spade a spade. This team sucks.


-McCabe was voted NHL second team all-star in 2003/2004
-Kaberle won MVP in the Czeck elite league ( Haseks' league ) over the summer.

The remaining defense are at par with Montreal's remaining defence ( after Hab's top 2 )

Sundin, Allison, O' Neil, Lindros and Steen are no worse than the Montreal forwards of Koivu , Bonk etc. - again easily at par.

Geriatric in goal ? Well, so was Terry Sawchuck ( 44 ), Johnny Bower ( 44 ) and Glenn Hall ( 40 ) - actually Belfour (40 ) had more shutouts and wins and a better 'goals against' than Theodore ( 11 years his junior ) in 2003 / 2004.
In the 2003/2004 voting for goalie Belfour came in 5th, Theodore, 11th.

2 Leafs made the allstar team on 2003/2004 ( Sundin & McCabe ) but no Habs made it

All in all, I'd say it's pretty easy to see that Toronto and Montreal are pretty much dead even IMHO

[nfnx]

whatt??? toronto is clearly better tahn montreal. i mean ottawa beating us is a given.... but come on, how can u justify montreal being better???

leafs have 3 solid offensive lines
even four if sundin, antro, and pon click.

our offence is set and im very happy about our lineup. i dont expect lindros to play well esp if hes gonna be a 3rd or 4th line center. allison will break out and thats all we need, czerkawski, oneil, tucker, allison will all put up atleast 20 goals, with allison possibly goin into the 30s. lindros may put in 20 - 30 at most.


as for defense, we are a much better core than you think if quinn will bring up some of our younger guys. if you ignore belak and berg we are a pretty well rounded defence. not the best, but good enough not to be a liability. leafs are trying to birng in a d right now which would make the core all that much more better... but again, comparing to montreal is something not worth comparing.




top bracket (1,2,3)
philly, ottawa, lighting


mid bracket (4,5)
leafs, boston,


lower bracket (6,7)
NJ, atlanta


last spot
pitts, montreal


flops
rangers, islanders, carolina, buffalo, washington, florida


my picks
1-lightning (have an easy schedule against the southeast division -easy points)
2-ottawa (too much speed and talent - finish with 100+points)
3-philly (fairly easy division as well cept NJ - but got some great young guns w/ forsberg)
4-toronto (nothing really stands out w/ boston besides allison will play well and if lindros as well, we have 3 elite scorers)
5-boston (coin toss w/ leafs but they may be losin boynton)
6-NJ ( only here because of brodeur. offense has taken a hit, and so has defence, no longer a factor in this league)
7-atlanta ( kovy, hossa, bondra, stefan is pretty impressive. )
8-pitts (this will only happen if lemieux plays more than 40 games-also for crosbys sake)

[poedua]

whatt??? toronto is clearly better tahn montreal. i mean ottawa beating us is a given.... but come on, how can u justify montreal being better???

leafs have 3 solid offensive lines
even four if sundin, antro, and pon click.

our offence is set and im very happy about our lineup. i dont expect lindros to play well esp if hes gonna be a 3rd or 4th line center. allison will break out and thats all we need, czerkawski, oneil, tucker, allison will all put up atleast 20 goals, with allison possibly goin into the 30s. lindros may put in 20 - 30 at most.


as for defense, we are a much better core than you think if quinn will bring up some of our younger guys. if you ignore belak and berg we are a pretty well rounded defence. not the best, but good enough not to be a liability. leafs are trying to birng in a d right now which would make the core all that much more better... but again, comparing to montreal is something not worth comparing.




top bracket (1,2,3)
philly, ottawa, lighting


mid bracket (4,5)
leafs, boston,


lower bracket (6,7)
NJ, atlanta


last spot
pitts, montreal


flops
rangers, islanders, carolina, buffalo, washington, florida


my picks
1-lightning (have an easy schedule against the southeast division -easy points)
2-ottawa (too much speed and talent - finish with 100+points)
3-philly (fairly easy division as well cept NJ - but got some great young guns w/ forsberg)
4-toronto (nothing really stands out w/ boston besides allison will play well and if lindros as well, we have 3 elite scorers)
5-boston (coin toss w/ leafs but they may be losin boynton)
6-NJ ( only here because of brodeur. offense has taken a hit, and so has defence, no longer a factor in this league)
7-atlanta ( kovy, hossa, bondra, stefan is pretty impressive. )
8-pitts (this will only happen if lemieux plays more than 40 games-also for crosbys sake)

Well said, Good analysis....I'd tend to agree with most of what you've identified ...but again, I'd still put Montreal / Leafs as pretty much even....there's not enough to suggest either one ( habs/ leafs ) is ' clearly better' than the other..too close to call IMHO. I think maybe a 6/7 spot might be closer to reality than 4/5

But I may give boston a bit more of an slight edge ( hold at 4/5 ) over the leafs/ habs - they've got some good young talent and are pretty solid in goal - just a gut feel though.

[Dibble]

All the arguments i've seen so far, can be applied to any team.
For example,
1) If the Leafs stay out of injuries, they'll do well.
2) Leafs are injury prone. They won't do well once they get injuries
Fact of the matter is, injuries will put any team in a bad spot.

1) Belfour doesn't have anyone to back him up.
Backup goalies are BACKUP goalies, meaning, they obviously won't perform as well as their primary. When any team loses their primary goalie, they've got one heck of a problem.

1) Leafs are gambling on players who haven't performed up to their potential.
With any trade, it's a gamble. With any player, it's a gamble. Just because players are stable in the past, doesn't mean the same thing will happen this year or the next... just like players who are unstable in the past doesn't mean they can't be stable this year or next year. We simply don't KNOW whether players will do well because injuries aren't exactly predictable, nor will players perform exactly what their previous stats say.

A lot of teams, on paper, have quite a bit of talent. The only way to predict this year's final standings is to wait and see - if you catch my drift. Trying to logically figure out who will do well this year is no better than comparing teams "on paper".

I'm just glad hockey's back, and starting 7:30pm tonight baby!

P.S. I've used a lot of Leafs examples, because 1) I am a Leafs fan, not hardcore. I mean, it's not like the Raptors have anything to cheer about. 2) There's a lot of controversy regarding the Leafs.

[B40]

There's nothing the Habs have done to suggest that they are materially better than the Leafs - picking up Radek Bonk is the only key addition it seems and losing Brisebois and Quintal may make the defense suspect - if anything, the Leafs and Habs are at par with one another. Better hope Theodore continues his level of play and doesn't ' tank ' like he did in 2002/2003.

Care to eat your words?

[Rometiklan]

Care to eat your words?

HahA! Been sitting on that one for months, eh?