Tory Support Continues to Decline: Latest Poll

[Spent]

Canadian Press

Saturday, May 28, 2005


OTTAWA -- The Conservatives continue to slump in voter support despite daily allegations of Liberal sponsorship misdeeds, a new poll suggests.

The phone survey by Decima Research Inc. puts
the Liberals ahead with 36 per cent of decided voters compared to 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 21 per cent for the NDP.

In the crucial battleground of Ontario where one-third of Commons seats are centred, the Liberals lead by 16 percentage points.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois has a hammerlock on Quebec with 53 per cent of support, versus 21 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Tories and nine per cent for the NDP.

Prime Minister Paul Martin has promised a federal election call within 30 days of a report by Justice John Gomery on the sponsorship scandal. His conclusions are expected in December but could be delayed.

And the minority Liberals may be brought down sooner if the Conservatives force and win a non-confidence vote.

Decima polled just over 1,000 adults across Canada from May 19 to 22.

Polling began two days after Belinda Stronach's stunning defection to the Liberals from the Conservatives. Losing the urban Ontario social moderate was a major blow to the Tories and leader Stephen Harper.

But the survey suggests voter intentions are anything but stable.

Decima CEO Bruce Anderson calls it a "whipsawing effect."

Almost half of those polled, 48 per cent, said they had changed their mind in recent months about which party to support. One in four said they are struggling to decide and have switched loose allegiances repeatedly.

Of those respondents - most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 - more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory.

Such volatility is normally reserved for election campaigns, Anderson says.

But many voters have been paying close attention to the Gomery inquiry and the political upheaval on Parliament Hill as parties jockey for power.

The resulting uncertainty helps explain sharp swings from one poll to the next, Anderson says.

"These whipsawed voters are different from traditionally defined undecided voters, who often are those with a fairly passive interest in politics.

"Instead, the whipsawed voters are responding actively to events of the day, most notably the Gomery commission, the debate over election timing and the functioning of the House of Commons."

The good news for Conservatives is those voters may well change their minds again.

Yep but it's really too bad that the reformers can't figure out that
their only chance is to torpedo Harper :lol:

The Decima survey is considered accurate
within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
© The Canadian Press 2005

[thelefteyeguy]

Canadian Press

Saturday, May 28, 2005




Yep but it's really too bad that the reformers can't figure out that
their only chance is to torpedo Harper :lol:

The Decima survey is considered accurate
within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
© The Canadian Press 2005

so 3%age pts could be 33% for liberals and 30% for PC?
and the flipflop just means the liberals will have lots of problems when the gomery report comes out in December.

Look for an election in Jan 2006

[gilboman]

so 3%age pts could be 33% for liberals and 30% for PC?
and the flipflop just means the liberals will have lots of problems when the gomery report comes out in December.

Look for an election in Jan 2006

no..its doesnt work like that.

the tories are in a lot more trouble than the liberals, they are a fractured party with no common goal or policy platform. when the election comes in jan, the tories will do even worse than last election. they have pretty much killed their chances of getting any moderate left people to vote for them since they have shown they only want the right wing nutjobs from reform to have any power within the party and will shun the moderates within.

[asim99]

i can't understand why canadians continue to chose 'corrupt' liberals over 'moral' conservatives....there must be something really flawed with what conservatives stand for

i am getting convinced that this conservative brouhaha about gomery will make it become just background noise come the election time

no..its doesnt work like that.

the tories are in a lot more trouble than the liberals, they are a fractured party with no common goal or policy platform. when the election comes in jan, the tories will do even worse than last election. they have pretty much killed their chances of getting any moderate left people to vote for them since they have shown they only want the right wing nutjobs from reform to have any power within the party and will shun the moderates within.

[Montague]

i can't understand why canadians continue to chose 'corrupt' liberals over 'moral' conservatives....there must be something really flawed with what conservatives stand for
Maybe they "bought" everybody off? :cheesygri

[asim99]

in that case, i haven't received my check yet :razz:

Maybe the "bought" everybody off? :cheesygri

[Txiasaeia]

"Of those respondents - most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 - more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory."

No offence to the 1000 low-income women aged between 25 and 44, but who cares? This poll doesn't represent a good cross-section of the Canadian public. I'd be saying this even if the Conservatives were at 99%, with the green party trailing with 1%.

i can't understand why canadians continue to chose 'corrupt' liberals over 'moral' conservatives....there must be something really flawed with what conservatives stand for

Or maybe Conservative values really don't resonate with this tiny segment of Canadians.

[asim99]

as far as i know the numbers for liberals have consistently been higher than those for conervatives in recent polls, regardless of the makeup of the sample (except for the brief period after brault testified, when conservatives had a short-lived lead)

"Of those respondents - most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 - more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory."

No offence to the 1000 low-income women aged between 25 and 44, but who cares? This poll doesn't represent a good cross-section of the Canadian public. I'd be saying this even if the Conservatives were at 99%, with the green party trailing with 1%.

Or maybe Conservative values really don't resonate with this tiny segment of Canadians.

[Tiberius]

"Of those respondents - most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 - more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory."

No offence to the 1000 low-income women aged between 25 and 44, but who cares? This poll doesn't represent a good cross-section of the Canadian public. I'd be saying this even if the Conservatives were at 99%, with the green party trailing with 1%.



Or maybe Conservative values really don't resonate with this tiny segment of Canadians.

Do you actually have a clue? Or do you seriously need to go and get one? LOL

The article highlighted one sub-segment of voters polled (apparantly because they were the biggest flip-floppers during the last month) and reported those numbers - however, the overall results of the poll were Canada-wide and accurate +/- 3%, 99 times out of 100 (anyone who took Statistics understands how poll numbers work and how they are able to achieve that level of accuracy by ensuring an adequate sample size)

Deciding to just ignore something because it isn't what you "like" is about as useless as an ostrich sticking it's head in a hole as a means to "hide"...

[grant]

Maybe they "bought" everybody off? :cheesygri

That's exactly what happened. the mayors of vancouver & toronto were bought off with gas taxes. Like typical politicians, they only complain about corruption until it flows in their direction.

[Txiasaeia]

(anyone who took Statistics understands how poll numbers work and how they are able to achieve that level of accuracy by ensuring an adequate sample size)

And anybody who's taken stats knows that taking the percentages of this poll (as people are wont to do) based on this sub-section of voters (who historically are the least likely to even vote) and applying it to the political predilections of all Canadians is absolutely useless.

The problem with polls and news reports that are based on polls is the fact that they tend not to give the questions asked; even the most experienced pollster will sometimes let some bias slip into the questions. If it's a telephone poll (again, we have no idea, based on the story), then the biases of those who call up these people and ask questions are also prone to come up in questioning.

I'm glad you have such an unwavering faith in statistics. I *did* say that I'd be questioning the results no matter the outcome (as I do whenever I spot a thread about polls), or did you miss that in your haste to show off your apparent knowledge of stats?

[Tiberius]

And anybody who's taken stats knows that taking the percentages of this poll (as people are wont to do) based on this sub-section of voters (who historically are the least likely to even vote) and applying it to the political predilections of all Canadians is absolutely useless.


The poll was not done on that sub-section of voters - it was a comprehensive poll with a sample size large enough to give statistically significant numbers. They only reported results from that sub-section to illustrate that the most change in opinions was occuring in that sub-group (essentially they are telling the political parties who to target right now as they are up for grabs).

I'm glad you have such an unwavering faith in statistics. I *did* say that I'd be questioning the results no matter the outcome (as I do whenever I spot a thread about polls), or did you miss that in your haste to show off your apparent knowledge of stats?

I'll alter what I said above to remove the offending implication that you only are dismissing the poll because of what it the results imply....

"Deciding to just ignore something because it isn't what you choose to believe is about as useless as an ostrich sticking it's head in a hole as a means to hide..."

Essentially that is what you are saying... for whatever your reasons may be, you "choose" to ignore the results of polls... all polls.

If polls were so useless, they wouldn't be used to extensively - but you can choose to ignore information if you want.. that is your perogative.

I actually agree with your statements that exact questions, etc. can affect polls. However, these polls are conducted by agencies who do polls for a living and know how to structure them. They also occur all the time and prove to be accurate a snapshot of public opinion at that time. My biggest issue with what you have posted is that you are using known minor factors that 'could' affect poll results in a particular instance - but overall will cancel out and be minimal - to try to argue that polls are useless. You can take that stance - but it is irrational and nobody else should praise you for some astute reasoning that has negated what this poll has indicated.

I actually commend them for pointing out that the numbers are in a big state of flux right now - as that is a valid point indicating the polls are changing quickly as people change their minds.

(If you would have said something like... "This poll only shows that things are in a big stat of flux, so I'll wait to see how the numbers settle out over the coming months before drawing any conclusions"... or... "One poll isn't enough to compensate for any bias that may have been present in question wording, etc. so I will want to see the results of another poll to corraborate these results before taking them as an accurate reflection..."... I would have respected that.)

[hagbard]

Okay, well that was a bit of good news in an otherwise bad week.

[Audiogenic]

As usual, the leader and last place finisher's numbers are BOTH overstated.

Nonetheless, putting Harper in power (which wasn't by accident) guarantees another Liberal victory unfortunately.

[ephemera]

What are 'conservative values' anyway?

I think they should spell those out. What they do believe in. We know what the liberals Believe in.

The conservatives can't just have policy based on polls.

They need to find a leader that will be ready in the next 10 years or so, after Belinda's reign as PM I am sure, that everyone will be voting her out.

[aquariaguy]

What are 'conservative values' anyway?

I think they should spell those out. What they do believe in. We know what the liberals Believe in.

The conservatives can't just have policy based on polls.

They need to find a leader that will be ready in the next 10 years or so, after Belinda's reign as PM I am sure, that everyone will be voting her out.

The Conservatives are flip-flop. They also believe in whatever Dubya Bush believes in.

[asim99]

harper is like a mr. dithers-wanna-be (more like a mr.dithers mini-me)

The Conservatives are flip-flop. They also believe in whatever Dubya Bush believes in.

[Txiasaeia]

harper is like a mr. dithers-wanna-be (more like a mr.dithers mini-me)

Don't forget that Martin is the *original* Mr. Dithers.

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3669408

[Prometheus]

We know what the liberals Believe in.


Corruption, Marijuana, Prostitution, GST, Falling Apart SeaKings, Rusted Submarines. Need I go on?

[asim99]

well, that's what the conservative economist called him...surprise, eh!
interesting that the conservatives don't call him that anymore now that their own leader is no better

Don't forget that Martin is the *original* Mr. Dithers.

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3669408

[asim99]

interesting you did not include pedophilia in that....something the conservatives accused liberals during last election campaign...i still haven't heard harper apologize for that absurd accusation

Corruption, Marijuana, Prostitution, GST, Falling Apart SeaKings, Rusted Submarines. Need I go on?

[hagbard]

Conservatives believe in bending to the thugs to the south.

[Spent]

Anyone who still thinks bushleague
is worth supporting is truly a hopeless ******. :mad:
and isn't it interesting to see that Harper/bushleague
common DNA

:razz:

[Prometheus]

I think it's Martin who trying to become more like Bush. Just look at the way Martin shields himself from media scrutiny. Remember his pieced together speech to Canadians? And how Martin believes he has the "moral authority" to govern (whatever that means). Similar to Bush and his morals on Iraq. It's scary how they both believe they are carrying on for some greater purpose...

On other days, he talks to media and then runs away into his office. Reminds me of Bush and his speech to the UN. I guess Martin & Bush have much more in common than Liberals willing to admit. They must have common DNA.

[Montague]

Similar to Bush and his morals on Iraq.

On other days, he talks to media and then runs away into his office. Reminds me of Bush and his speech to the UN. I guess Martin & Bush have much more in common than Liberals willing to admit. Perhaps they have common DNA?
Except with Martin/Chretian were/are NOT in Iraq.

With Harper we would be in Iraq.

And we all know the VP in the REAL guy in charge down there.

[Prometheus]

With Harper we would be in Iraq.

But be the FIRST ones out given the awful mess Bush has created there...

[Montague]

But out in a hurry...
Really?

Outside of the Phillipines what other country that had troops brought them home?

And they brought them back after giving in to the terrorist demands.

Spain perhaps but ONLY after the terrorist attack in their country.

given the awful mess Bush has created there...
Maybe if they were like your avatar they would not have had those problems! :cheesygri

Prometheus=god of forethought.

[guest10586]

Harper is too far right, they need him out and to replace him with someone more moderate like Belinda's ex....whatshisname? Harper gets involved in stuff that he really doesn't have to and mouths off making him look like a right wing nut.

[Montague]

Harper is too far right, they need him out and to replace him with someone more moderate like Belinda's ex....whatshisname?
McKay.

He is just like a Liberal.

Promises one thing then does another.

ie backstap Joe Clark.

[guest10586]

McKay.

He is just like a Liberal.

Promises one thing then does another.

ie backstap Joe Clark.

Probably is, which is why he is Harper's right hand man. Someone like him who is more moderate. Harper probably wanted us to go into Iraq after 9/11...he reminds me Bush but with speaking ability.

[Montague]

Probably is, which is why he is Harper's right hand man. Someone like him who is more moderate. Harper probably wanted us to go into Iraq after 9/11...he reminds me Bush but with speaking ability.
Actually I was not referring to him politically but by his actions.

He promised Joe Clark/Progressive conservative party when he took over leadership of the party that he would NOT merge with the Alliance party.

Which is why Belindas "betrayal" of him is so dang ironic.

"What goes around comes around".

[guest10586]

Actually I was not referring to him politically but by his actions.

He promised Joe Clark/Progressive conservative party when he took over leadership of the party that he would NOT merge with the Alliance party.

I said someone like him but yeah, he was a moron to jump into bed with someone so far right. I would say Belinda but guess where she is now. :P

[aquariaguy]

I said someone like him but yeah, he was a moron to jump into bed with someone so far right. I would say Belinda but guess where she is now. :P

Well obviously not in McKay's bed :cheesygri

[gman]

Well obviously not in McKay's bed :cheesygri
Who knows? May be McKay is the one who organized all these. May be he is the one who is back stabbing Harper right now. :D