Aleem
Oct 13th, 2004, 11:03 AM
... at least they would have, according to a computer simulation done for the Toronto Star
The NHL's lost season officially begins today.
Seven games disappear on what was to have been the league's opening night: Good-bye Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, au revoir Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, git along Calgary Flames at Anaheim Mighty Ducks.
The cancellations continue with five more games tomorrow, then another six on Friday, including what was to have been the Maple Leafs' first game of 2004-05. Although games won't officially be cancelled by the NHL until the day they are supposed to be played, the league has given clubs permission to release arena dates 30 days in advance.
On and on it goes with no end in sight — fan frustration measured in a tally of lost hockey nights in Canada and the United States.
But if a season can be lost, can it also be found?
Sure.
The Stanley Cup champion for the 2004-05 NHL season is the New Jersey Devils. The Art Ross Trophy winner as leading scorer is Joe Sakic. And, once again, the Maple Leafs are impressive also-rans.
Those results and others come from a computer simulation of the 1,230-game official NHL season done for the Star by Whatifsports.com, a Cincinnati-based company that runs simulated games featuring current and historical players.
Simulations are an inexact science, to be sure. For everything expected this season — Jarome Iginla leads the league with 49 goals — there's something hard to swallow, like Chicago's Tyler Arnason scoring 41 goals, almost double the 21 he got last year.
But then real life is inexact, too. Who figured on the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames meeting in last year's Stanley Cup final?
Those Flames and Lightning, by the way, figure prominently in the 2004-05 results. Both return as division winners featuring stingy defences.
However, the NHL Cinderellas do not return to the big ball.
The Flames finish with the Western Conference's top record, 106 points, and beat the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round of the playoffs before getting crushed in four straight by the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2.
The Lightning win their division (105 points) but are upset in the first round of the playoffs by the Devils.
The Devils also end the Maple Leafs' season.
In fact, in many ways 2004-05 is a typical season for Toronto under the stewardship of Pat Quinn. The Leafs finish with 104 points, just behind Ottawa's 106 in the Northeast division, beat the surprising New York Islanders in the first round of the playoffs before falling in five games to New Jersey.
Mats Sundin is brilliant, finishing with 38 goals and 70 points, good for fourth in league scoring. Sadly, Alexander Mogilny's stats slip to just 23 points.
Whatifsports is running its own "No Lockout Challenge" simulation for the NHL season in which 30 users of the Web site have been put in charge of the 30 NHL teams and are playing out the season day-by-day as scheduled, making trades and calling up players as they see fit.
For the Star, Whatifsports used the latest current rosters — including minor-league prospects but excluding unsigned free agents — for each of the NHL teams, as modified by its appointed GMs. The entire schedule was simulated without roster changes or injuries.
The no-injury rule created some anomalies. For instance, Scott Stevens played all 82 games for the Devils and Jeremy Roenick all 82 for the Flyers even though both may retire because of concussion problems.
Fatigue was included as a factor in the Star simulation, which may have hurt the likes of the 35-year-old Mogilny — although clearly not Sakic.
Whatifsports, which was founded in 1999 by a self-described group of "fans/math geeks," is not the only outfit doing their own version of the NHL's lost season.
The digital cable channel G4techTV is using a computer video game to run the NHL schedule. Results of each "game" will be shown on the channel's daily "Sweat" program, with scores, stats, teams and player profiles on the channel's website (g4techtv.ca).
And the gambling web site Intertops.com is setting odds on NHL "games" on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Each team is assigned a ball from various North American lottery draws with the ball's first digit determining their goals scored in a game — 19 means one goal, 32 means three goals. A number less than 10 means your team is shut out.
Here's a hot tip: bet the Devils.
The NHL's lost season officially begins today.
Seven games disappear on what was to have been the league's opening night: Good-bye Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, au revoir Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, git along Calgary Flames at Anaheim Mighty Ducks.
The cancellations continue with five more games tomorrow, then another six on Friday, including what was to have been the Maple Leafs' first game of 2004-05. Although games won't officially be cancelled by the NHL until the day they are supposed to be played, the league has given clubs permission to release arena dates 30 days in advance.
On and on it goes with no end in sight — fan frustration measured in a tally of lost hockey nights in Canada and the United States.
But if a season can be lost, can it also be found?
Sure.
The Stanley Cup champion for the 2004-05 NHL season is the New Jersey Devils. The Art Ross Trophy winner as leading scorer is Joe Sakic. And, once again, the Maple Leafs are impressive also-rans.
Those results and others come from a computer simulation of the 1,230-game official NHL season done for the Star by Whatifsports.com, a Cincinnati-based company that runs simulated games featuring current and historical players.
Simulations are an inexact science, to be sure. For everything expected this season — Jarome Iginla leads the league with 49 goals — there's something hard to swallow, like Chicago's Tyler Arnason scoring 41 goals, almost double the 21 he got last year.
But then real life is inexact, too. Who figured on the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames meeting in last year's Stanley Cup final?
Those Flames and Lightning, by the way, figure prominently in the 2004-05 results. Both return as division winners featuring stingy defences.
However, the NHL Cinderellas do not return to the big ball.
The Flames finish with the Western Conference's top record, 106 points, and beat the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round of the playoffs before getting crushed in four straight by the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2.
The Lightning win their division (105 points) but are upset in the first round of the playoffs by the Devils.
The Devils also end the Maple Leafs' season.
In fact, in many ways 2004-05 is a typical season for Toronto under the stewardship of Pat Quinn. The Leafs finish with 104 points, just behind Ottawa's 106 in the Northeast division, beat the surprising New York Islanders in the first round of the playoffs before falling in five games to New Jersey.
Mats Sundin is brilliant, finishing with 38 goals and 70 points, good for fourth in league scoring. Sadly, Alexander Mogilny's stats slip to just 23 points.
Whatifsports is running its own "No Lockout Challenge" simulation for the NHL season in which 30 users of the Web site have been put in charge of the 30 NHL teams and are playing out the season day-by-day as scheduled, making trades and calling up players as they see fit.
For the Star, Whatifsports used the latest current rosters — including minor-league prospects but excluding unsigned free agents — for each of the NHL teams, as modified by its appointed GMs. The entire schedule was simulated without roster changes or injuries.
The no-injury rule created some anomalies. For instance, Scott Stevens played all 82 games for the Devils and Jeremy Roenick all 82 for the Flyers even though both may retire because of concussion problems.
Fatigue was included as a factor in the Star simulation, which may have hurt the likes of the 35-year-old Mogilny — although clearly not Sakic.
Whatifsports, which was founded in 1999 by a self-described group of "fans/math geeks," is not the only outfit doing their own version of the NHL's lost season.
The digital cable channel G4techTV is using a computer video game to run the NHL schedule. Results of each "game" will be shown on the channel's daily "Sweat" program, with scores, stats, teams and player profiles on the channel's website (g4techtv.ca).
And the gambling web site Intertops.com is setting odds on NHL "games" on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Each team is assigned a ball from various North American lottery draws with the ball's first digit determining their goals scored in a game — 19 means one goal, 32 means three goals. A number less than 10 means your team is shut out.
Here's a hot tip: bet the Devils.